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Now this is a picture that I am sure all of us have waited way too long to see.
No more oil spewing into the gulf!
I mentioned back on June 19th that perhaps THEN was the opportunity to actually invest in BP.
Yes invest, not boycott. Boycotting actually hurts consumers and our fellow neighbors more than BP.
Back then BP stock was $30.64
Now it just closed at $38.92
That is a 27% return.
If you invested then. . .
Time to sell.
So, on the one hand you have BP and their executives, and heck, even the entire oil industry and even the Obama administration that folks are beginning to really hate.
On the other hand, you have these people who, though well intentioned, are going about it all the wrong way.
Here is why.
BP does not make a lot of money off of the individual gas stations. And let me stress "individual" because the retailers are often folks from your neighborhood who depend on the sale of not only the gas but all the impulse necessities that go along with it: like Milk, Donuts, Coffee, Hot Dogs, etc etc...
With these economic hard times, the last thing we need to be doing is putting folks out of a job.
BP makes a lot of money off of the crude oil that it sells. That means they sell the crude oil before if ever reaches the gas pump. In fact, you could buy BP crude oil by products from most any other retailers (not just gas station) in most every area of the economy. In fact it could show up in just about any petroleum based product.
Boycotting BP does not really hurt BP nearly as much as it hurts the small people individual people and families in our communities.
So what do we do?
The problem is not just with BP or the Government but with our nations dependency on oil. Period.
A while back I posted this post about seizing the moment to change our energy dependency. Yes, the president mentioned this during his speech the other night but it was a little late.
The plan, everyone needs a plan, should be to ween ourselves off of oil dependency.
Some say do not buy BP stock. Well, that has already happened. BP stock has been cut in half and is still under downward pressure. In fact, whenever they get around to actually stopping the oil leak, I would argue that it is time to buy their stock.
The big question is how low will the stock price go. I think it is probably at a support level now. If it continues downward, look for a 65-70% reduction then beyond that close to 85-90%.
So, how can we make BP pay up and punish them at the same time?
Well, they have already put up $20 Billion dollars worth of their own capital up for compensation. So, we do not want BP to go out of business.
But believe me, if their stock goes down anywhere close to 90% in value, (that would be close to $10 or less in price), I say buy as much as you possibly can. Because when it goes back up, and it will, you can sell that stock you just made a killing on and use the profits to buy an eco-friendly or natural gas car!
Don't worry, by then gas stations will have plenty of options available for fueling or recharging cars.
I could just take my year to date investment gains and just sit on the side lines.
After all , my goal was something like 24% return, and I have reached that already.
And for anybody else currently in the stock market, pulling out now and holding on to cash may not be a bad idea.
From European Debt crisis, to Gulf Gooo, to Failed fail safes, and circumventing reporting and documentation guidelines, the stock market certainly looks scary right about now.
Unfortunately, the current state of the world economy and the stock market , corporate America, and most everything in general reminds me that everyone seems to to be behaving like a bunch of monkeys. Namely these monkeys.
And that is never a good situation.
But I still have a couple stock ideas that just might pan out so I think I will at least keep my feet in the mix and make sure that I have those stop loss orders in place to protect my investments.
I am currently invested in two companies, volatile Bio Pharm KERX and a weapons company RGR. Both KERX and RGR were setting up for an upswing before the whole bottom of the stock market, and the Greek Debt crisis caught hold of everybodys attention. Since then neither has broken upwards but neither has significantly fallen, yet.
Two stocks which report this week are ARO and CPWM.
ARO is a good strong company that I expect to give a decent quarterly report, however, recent data and retail sales statistics indicate that although the retail sector is no longer going down, it may still have a long way to go before it truly goes back up. CPWM has also weathered the recent turmoil well and could be ready to go back up with a good report.
Of course, this is all dependent on IF the markets don’t panic again and continue the downward trends.
With consumer and investor confidence low, and mixed recession ending data being reported, these are all really big IF’s.
So, stand by for a bumpy ride.
To borrow from Obama’s words when addressing big oil, and government policies:
"We do not appreciate what we consider to be a ridiculous spectacle."
I’ve mentioned it in my blog before and I'll probably mention again in the future.
One needs to set goals.
Without goals, your chances of achieving anything are slim.
Government bailouts, shame on you political speeches against the status quo do not instill hope, confidence or change.
Now, to his credit, and in line with my point. Obama did have a goal to pass health care reform. And for better or worse, he and congress did it. It was on their agenda, and it got done.
Great leaders not only seize the moment - but help define it.
Reagan did it with both the cold war through his “peace through strength” and “tear down this wall”.
Kennedy did it with his speech about the space race, arms race and leaders of the
free world speech.
Here are some excerpts which amazingly fit in with America as it is today!
These are extraordinary times. And we face an extraordinary challenge. Our strength as well as our convictions have imposed upon this nation the role of leader in freedom's cause. No role in history could be more difficult or more important. We stand for freedom. That is our conviction for ourselves-that is our only commitment to others. No friend, no neutral and no adversary should think otherwise. We are not against any man-or any nation-or any system-except as it is hostile to freedom. Nor am I here to present a new military doctrine, bearing any one name or aimed at any one area. I am here to promote the freedom doctrine...
...examine where we are strong and where we are not, where we may succeed and where we may not. Now it is time to take longer strides-time for a great new American enterprise-time for this nation to take a clearly leading role in (insert any desired goal here - Kennedy used Space) achievement, which in many ways may hold the key to our future on earth.
I believe we possess all the resources and talents necessary. But the facts of the matter are that we have never made the national decisions or marshaled the national resources required for such leadership. We have never specified long-range goals on an urgent time schedule, or managed our resources and our time so as to insure their fulfillment.
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