A New Year and a New Watch List !

Every single one of my Starting Lineup has seen some fall off either from recent highs or falling out of favor. All I believe represent an opportunity to buy in before the stock either breaks back out or continues its upward momentum.








Starting Lineup
CNU Continucare Corp.
CRIC China Real Estate Information Corp
INTC Intel Corp
MCD McDonald's Corp
MRVL Marvell Technology Group Ltd
NEP China North East
NEWN New Energy Systems Group
NPD China Nepstar Chain Drugstore Ltd
RDA RDA MICROELECTRONICS, INC.
SCEI Sino Clean Energy Inc


Each stock on my Bench represents either a slightly riskier play due to playing momentum or the stock is currently stuck or still out of favor. A still out of favor stock would be CSCO which has been totally beating up by a bad quarterly report and forecast. Du Pont, on the other hand is such a big conglomerate that it represents a good play for both a recovering world economy and exposure to some more innovative developments such as solar power shingles which do not require any other special installation. Others such as Walgreens were on my previous starting lineup and I believe still have good potential, but I am making room for some new upstarts on my starting lineup.

Bench
ADES ADA-ES Inc
CSCO Cisco Systems Inc
DD E I Du Pont De Nemours And Company
GFRE Gulf Resources Inc
HRBN Harbin Electric Inc
MSFT Microsoft Corp
PZG Paramount Gold and Silver Corp
SPPI Spectrum Pharmaceuticals Incorporated
UTA Universal Travel
WAG Walgreen Co

My practice squad is basically all the other stocks which made it through my screens and filters that still represent interesting yet even riskier plays. They too are worth a look as investment opportunities, but I feel safer watching for either a better buy in price or I don’t trust the current pattern yet.


Practice Squad
AFOP Alliance Fiber Optic Products Inc
CEPH Cephalon
CIZN Citizens Holding Co
COHN Cohen & Company I
CVU CPI Aerostructures Inc
ESGR Enstar Group Limi
ISSC Innovative Solutions And Support Inc
JASO JA Solar Holdings
NYMX Nymox Pharmaceutical Corporation
PTX Pernix Therapeutics Holdings Inc

Read more...

Reflecting on Goals

In keeping with the traditions of reflecting on the past year, setting resolutions goals; I present you the following...

FINAL 2010 R.A.P. (Resolution Accountability Page)

Actually, to restate, I make my resolutions in the form of measurable and (hopefully) achievable goals.

So, How did I do?

1) Eliminate non housing debt.













As you can see, the scuba dude is still swimming....

I did not do nearly as well as I had hoped but OK. The big dip in the summer was a new AC and Furnace. After nearly 20 years the AC finally gave up and we were faced with a huge decision and expense. For a brief moment the cheapskate in me thought, we can tough it out. We don't need no stinking AC. The human race survived for thousands of years without it, we can too.

WRONG! After a couple days of nearly 100 degree heat and humidity I was convinced that those crazy ideas were, well, Crazy.

There is a bit of good news in getting a new AC and Furnace. It is more efficient than the old, which means we should save on utility bills, and it qualifies for the Green Housing tax deduction.

Also, you may notice that my chart, despite the sudden dip, appears to basically rise in somewhat equal increments. This is because I tried to dedicate an automatic amount each month to go towards eliminating that debt.

Usually this is best done through automatic transfers, and if one can do it via payroll deductions, so much the better because then you never have the chance to miss a payment towards your goal.

The tricky part is budgeting well enough to do just that. It is not easy, but definitely possible; for everyone!

2) Beat all DJIA, NASDQ, S&P averages with my investment income and do at least 50% better than the 16 % return I had this year. That means 24% annual return.

Me +20%
S&P +13%
DJIA +11%
NASD +18%

Well, I did not reach my 24% goal, but I came close, did better than last years 16% return, and I did beat all the averages.

You know, maybe, just maybe I can do this individual investor thing after all.


3) Sports and Fantasy Football.
Conspire/Rig/Cheat as commish To have the east coast win back the Borderless League Fantasy Football Trophy next year. Oh wait, Conspire/Rig/Cheat as commish, would not be very fair and ethical, so I’ll just put down that I will make the playoffs and the East Coast will win the Championship next year.

Well, I may never reach this goal completely. :-(
I did make the playoffs but the East Coast lost yet again.
In fact, Yanni won for the second time in a row.
I did make it into the Championship game but thanks to Atlanta and Philly playing below expectations, I came up short in this ultimate fantasy goal.

4) Double the number of people following my blog. I currently have 10 listed.

I now have 24 listed so, baring a sudden mass exodus, I think I made this one.

5) I’m starting a web site dedicated to donating to charities and activities that are most important to me and my family. Specifically The American Cancer Society, and Greyhound and Veterinary Research.

Well, technically I did do this one in that I started it and got it up and running and I did achieve my goal of donating to charities. It just proved to be exceeding difficult to successfully promote that site so about half way through the year I changed it to an EBAY entity that donates proceeds to the charities.

That method proved to be more successful so I think I will stick with the EBAY donations going forward.


Coming Soon:

My 2010 Top Ten
Update on NFL Stocks
My 2011 Goals !!!

Read more...

Last but not least

For my December Watch lists I had to sort through a ton of information and finally came up with my 30 stocks.

This month I am including two special requests and observations from outside of my usual screens.

These special appearances fall under the "observation" and "buy what you know category" of investing.

First, Wet Seal (WTSLA) is a teen and young adult fashion retailer that has attracted not only the fashion eye of my teenage daughter and her friends but also the savvy deal shopper eye of my lovely wife.
My daughter an all her friends have this fashion shop on all their Christmas lists, birthday lists, wish lists etc etc.
They also, according to my wife, have frequent sales better than other stores and product at reasonable prices.
This, along with the fact that Wet Seal is generally out of favor with investors and the stock price has been showing recent recovery strength is lending me to trust in this investment.

The other Watch list special is Cracker Barrel (CBRL). When we were traveling Thanksgiving week through six different states, along countless highways, and towns; there were two stores we saw over and over and over again.
One was Dunkin Doughnuts which is literally on nearly every street corner in the North East. But this is a privately owned, franchised, company and does not have publically traded stock.
However, Cracker Barrel seemed almost as prevalent and was definitely busy and from folks I talked to, has a very loyal, almost fanatic, customer following. Their stock has fallen back a bit after reaching a 52 week high point and though it appears slightly pricy still, all other indicators are pointing to a good possible entry point.
So, with that said, I am adding it to my watch list as well.

STARTING LINEUP:

DELL - Dell Inc
This one showed up on my “large and cheap” screen and the price is right with a bounce off of support around the 13 mark.

MFW - M&F Worldwide Corporation
This one was on my “value” screen and could be looking to set up a new good support level for a turn around.

CBRL - Cracker Barrel
See above.

XLNX - Xilinx Inc
This one was on my list last month as was MSFT. Either is worthy of an entry here but XLNX I think has a greater momentum and growth potential.

ASIA - Asiainfo Linkage Inc
This stock is a type of “contrarian” play and looks like it might be setting up for recovery off of 16 - 17 support - look for possible double bottom reversal pattern.

CNIT - China Information Technology, I
After reaching high points In stock price then cooling off signs are pointing to a possible swing back up for this “value” play.

CSKI - China Sky One Medical, Inc.
Another stock worthy of watching. Personally I am looking for a double bottom reversal patter below 6.5 or 7.

WTSLA - Wet Seal
See above.

IGOI - Igo Incorporated
This one is up on higher monthly volume and still seems to have a lots of upside left to it.

TXN - TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC
This is my guilty play because it has me wishing I had gotten in 2 – 3 months ago when it first appeared on my lists.

BENCH:

ASYS - Amtech Systems Inc
I know the solar market has cooled recently but this one works in as a worthy play on solar stocks.

CPWM - Cost Plus Inc
This stock is showing good volume and corporate returns.

EZPW - Ezcorp Inc
This appeared on my lists a while back and still (because of economic conditions) warrants a watch.

NEP - China North East Petroleum Hold
This and the next stock, probably should be on my practice squad but I’ve been wrong before and missed opportunity so I’ve moved them up to the Bench.

ACOM - Ancestry Com Inc
See previous entry . . .

CMFO - China Marine Food Group Limited
This seems to now finally be at a good support level and worth a watch.

CMM - China Mass Media Corp American
This stock showed up on my outperform screens and is showing good momentum for undervalued stock.

FCFC - FirstCity Financial Corporation
Another potential value play.

HOGS - Zhongpin Inc.
A growth stock that I have successfully timed before and now seems to be at an intriguing entry point.

LGL - LGL Group, Inc. Common Stock
Another stock that shows good potential to outperform the market and it’s peers.

PRACTICE SQUAD:

GFRE - Gulf Resources Inc
ONP - Orient Paper Inc
BMY - Bristol Myers Squibb Co
CVI - Cvr Energy Incorporated
HQS - HQ Sustainable Maritime
AMAP - AutoNavi Holdings Ltd
CSFS - The Cash Store Financial Service
FSIN - Fushi Copperweld, Inc.
GILD - GILEAD SCIENCES INC
JNJ - Johnson & Johnson

Read more...

Should you buy the GM IPO?

This week the much anticipated and highly hyped IPO of the Government Bailed out GM is expected to hit the market.

Should you buy in to the hype, the IPO and the stock?

Lets look.





First of all, even though the government bailed out GM with your and my tax money, you and I are NOT investors or “interested / invested” parties. The big name bankers, financial institutions are. They are the ones bringing this IPO to market, setting the initial price offering, and stand to make the most initial profit. This is really pissing off disappointing a lot of common investors and taxpayers.

Money is power, and you already gave yours away to the government. So stop complaining. But that does not mean you and I cannot invest in GM. It just means that it is a bit riskier.

What usually happens with highly anticipated and high demand IPO’s is that the offering price is what the institutional backers get as a strike price and the demand and hype drives the pricing up for the individual investors.

So, what is the initial public offering price?
Currently it is somewhere between $26 and $29 per share.

In fact, if I were the government, I’d be more than a little annoyed at this IPO price. The government got 60% control of the company for a price of $44 a share. This means even at $29 a share, the government is losing 35 cents on the dollar. Yet the financial institutions are going to make, in all likely hood, a nice tidy profit. Recent reports have demand for the shares at 6 times the number being offered. This demand is certainly going to drive up the price.

Generally I do not invest in IPO’s because historically they are not profitable and actually tend to underperform the market over the short term. This is because most IPO’s are offered after the company has made money doing whatever they have done and are looking to pay off debt and or generate cash for other investments.

There have been numerous studies on IPO’s over the years and many have shown variations of the following:

1. Most were afflicted by declining sales and earnings trends and slip in profitability within 2 years of their IPO. Very few (about 10 -15%) showed improvement.
2. In fact, over half show quarterly earnings drop in the first four quarters after the IPO occurs.

In all fairness, the winners enjoy on average price increase of 134% from their IPO dates and 71% from the close of their first trading date. 76% outperformed the overall market from their IPO date and 72% outperformed from the first day's close. Admittedly, the last part shows significant promise - that is until you realize that most of the better IPO's are already pre sold to institutional investors.

So, how should the average investor play the IPO market or more to the point the GM IPO?

You could look for the quick hit or profit but this is highly risky. Only the best and most highly anticipated IPO’s of profitable and well run companies make the good money and investments. And even those do not always show the stock profit initially.

That is because the hype has already built the price up over the IPO pricing that the institutional investors get. In fact if one were to look only at the best and most profitable IPO’s you will see that at some point the price often falls off a bit and only after it goes though a consolidation phase does it actually show a gain for the average investor.

The big question: Is GM one of these hyped and well run companies?

They are certainly generating a lot of interest. So I think it is safe to say that the “hype” factor is in full play here.

But are they a well run company?

If you have followed their company reports recently, and watched their dog and pony show, you will see that they have in fact been able to not only repay many of their debt obligations but actually make a profit. The big question is will they be able to sustain this profitability and more importantly show a profit for the average investor?

There are pros and cons to the GM IPO.

First the some of the Cons:

GM is prohibited from paying dividends as a condition of many of its loans. Meanwhile, it must make payments on new preferred stock, given to the United Auto Workers, before paying a dividend. This isn't the GM of old. Don't expect dividends anytime soon.

Much of the proceeds of the IPO will go to service obligations to the UAW, including pension liabilities.

Gotta Love those Unions.... ;-)

Now for some of the Pros:

They are obviously re-engineering their brand to try and be more green and competitive. Which is a good thing.

Also, a huge element to the government's takeover of GM was a provision that allows the company to hold onto nearly $16 billion in operating loss credits. Over the coming years the GM will be allowed to use these prior losses to offset future tax bills.

Sounds like a pretty good deal right? Essentially the company lost money, then got bailed out and went through a restructuring, but keeps the 'benefits' of losing money in the past.

Gee, that is a sweet deal!

I think, at least for the first few years, GM will have enough support from government credits to keep it profitable and competitive.

Over the years I have only played in the IPO opening day game twice. This was with Visa and Chipotle. Another well hyped and sucessfull IPO was Google. I thought about Google but did not buy in at first.

All these were well hyped, well known companies, and well run.

So, how did they do?

Visa was priced at 44 and opened around 60.
Chipotle was priced at 22 and opened at 44.
Pretty nice profits for the institutions huh!.

How did the stock perform once it started trading?
Did the average investor (me for that matter) get that “quick” profit?

Well, depends on how you look at it.

VISA










CHIPOTLE










GOOGLE











All of them experience a bit of volatility and swings in price but if you look at the first few weeks of trading, the stocks tended to trade within a range before taking off again.

VISA showed some classic triangle and pendant patterns with a well defined resistance level which it finally broke out above 2 - 3 weeks after offering.

CHIPOTLE showed a well defined trading range.

And GOOGLE peaked quicklyfor a 10% gain, but over the next couple weeks drifted back down to its initial opening and support level before take off.

All these stocks showed good strength by NOT falling below their opening range support levels.

In pattern investing we call this consolidating. After a big run up, which is exactly what happens with IPO’s like these, the movement of the stock will look to settle within a new support and resistance range.

The key is this; will the opening days range(s) of the IPO set the new support level.

My advice would be to take the wait and see approach to make sure a new support level is established.

If, you really do want to try for the quick hit profit then I would look to set a buy limit price of about 33% above the offering price. Say somewhere between $34.5 and $38.5 and hope that is good enough to get in on the action and that the new GM support level is higher than that.

Me, I’m going to wait at least a week or two to see what it does.

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Stop, Drop and Roll

The stock market stopped its multi week rally with a nearly 2 point drop across the board; Reminding all investors that they need to roll with the punches. Except many of them went running to Gold and other precious metals sending the already inflated prices even higher. That is OK because it only creates more opportunity for the rest of us to buy on the dips and sell later on the highs.

My new investment portfolio courtesy of Sharebuilder was up over 5% before this week and I am still up nearly 3% overall. I’ve had a couple big winners so far this month and one of them I actually managed to invest in. Metricity (MOTR) is up 30% and Lincoln Educational Services is up 18%.

So with my automatic stop gain / loss (drop) settings, in this case “gain”, I’ve already locked in a 30% gain in one of my investments after just 10 days. We will have to see how the rest of the month plays out (rolls along).

The winning play of the Falcons – Ravens game was an example of drop and roll.




Or rather stiff arm push off to the head, knock the player down and watch him stumble and roll to the ground while you catch the game winning touchdown pass.

That one marvelous 33 yard TD, no penalty called, play was worth an extra 10 fantasy points for my Borderless League team. That would be 6 for the TD, 1 for the pass yardage, and 3 bonus for passing over 300 yards. That one pass play gave Matt Ryan 316 yards and me 10 fantasy points! Wow!

Speaking of wow, this year the league is incredibly even and exciting!

At this point in the season, both the East Coast Conference and West Coast Conference have their top 4 teams with identical records.

That is the top two teams in each conference are 6 -3 and each of the next two teams are 5 – 4. And, coincidentally, each 6 – 3 team is playing an intra-league 5 – 4 team this week!











With only 3 games, after this week remaining before the playoffs, things are getting really really exciting ! Oh yeah, my team (The Fun Bunch) is 6 – 3 in the East Coast. I’ve won 3 in a row now, so hopefully my winning streak will not stop, causing me to drop in the standings, and leaving the playoff race(s) up to the roll of the dice.

Until next time, Be Good, Do Well, Have Fun.

And remember Stop, Drop and Roll !!!

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Going Orange

We have all heard the phrase Going Green, well this month I’m going Orange.
As in Orange, ING sharebuilder, investment accounts.

I’ve had an ING savings account for several years now and have always known about their sharebuilder investment services but have never decided to take advantage of their services until now.

Why?

Well, two reason really.

First, I already had the bulk of my investments in company sponsored 401K type plans and larger ETF accounts that I rarely traded in or made any changes to more than once or twice a year at most. So the costs of these accounts to me was not very much at all.

Secondly, up until a couple – three years ago, I never really got into individual investing much. Partly because of fees, I thought they were too high and would eat into my profits too much if I ended up doing a lot of trading. And, partly because I didn’t think I could do as well as the professionals.

Well, as it turns out, I was incorrect in my assumptions on both counts.

Shortly before I started this blog, I decided to do something like an “individual investor experiment”.

I thought I had a few really good stock screens and filters to pick potentially good stocks for investments and I was curious about stock patter investing. So I started tracking my watch lists and trying to “hit” certain patterns.

So how have I done?

Over the past couple years, via tracing my individual stock trades with Covestor, I have maintained over 23% return. Though, at times it was much higher (60%) and much, much lower (-40%), overall I think I did OK.

Also, though not independently tracked, my monthly watch lists have done reasonably well too. My 2009 watch lists for instance, have returned, on average, 23% to date and if I factor in stop losses, that average jumps up to 30% return to date.

One of the really cool ideas about Covestor is that any member can track his or her funds, share the results and ideas with the rest of the Community and even the world, and even set up a model portfolio for others to follow and invest with. If they do, you could be paid, somewhat like a broker, for this.

Well, trading in one or two stocks a month does not a portfolio make.
And in order to open a model portfolio and participate in the program you have to actively invest in said model at least $10K.

For my “individual investor experiment” I did invest my own money, obviously, but I started with an amount that I felt was enough to offset fees of a couple trades a month, yet if I lost it all, I would not be crushed or put myself, and my family in financial Armageddon. Needless to say, this $10K amount is much more than I risked or currently “play with” as an individual trader.

Over the course of this blog, I have been using Firstrade as my brokerage for individual trades. They do not really have a minimum amount for maintaining or opening an account, nor are their fees really really high. They charge $6.95 a trade.

I have been pleased with their services and site and would recommend them to anybody who asks. BTW, Scottrade is the other online brokerage I have used before and they are equally as good as Firstrade.

However, at $7 a trade, if I traded my starting lineup watch lists each month that would be $140 dollars a month (buy and sell) in fees and nearly $1700 a year! For my experiment of playing individual investor trading, that was and still is prohibitively expensive and TOTALLY out of the question.

BTW, even for a $10K investment portfolio, $1700 in yearly fees is also totally out of the question too!

So, what to do?

I realized that what I really wanted to do was independently have my watch lists tracked and maybe some day be at a point to open a model portfolio on a site such as Covestor.

This would require me to actively invest in my watch lists. And to find an economical way to do so.

ING rates are some of the best in the industry. One reason why their best rates are so good is because to take advantage of them, you can only trade when they do their “bulk” sharebuilder trading on Tuesdays. When I first started trading I came up with a watch list of stocks based on my screens and out of those look for trends and or patterns to invest in.

I felt in order to fully take advantage of trends and stock movements, the only on Tuesdays would be a bit limiting. And for the most part, this is true. However, now that I have over 2 years of data go research I come up with a several insights.
One, I have averaged nearly 2 stock trades a month. That is 4 x 7 = $28 in fees.

That translates into $336 minimum in fees per year.

Guess what? Based on my returns, that is still too high.

Two is that though the only on Tuesdays does not work for really short term quick hype hits or trends, but over the course of the year, it would really does not negatively impact my overall returns.

Three, I have noticed that there are some stocks which consistently or at the very least regularly show up on my screens and or watch lists. Sometime they are always there, sometime the drop off only to show up again a few months later.
Four, as I pointed out before, my watch lists over time are just as if not more effective as my individual pattern investing of one or two stocks a month.

So, I have taken the plunge with Sharebuilder and will be using them to invest in and track my watch list investments.

What I like:

Cost – Sharebuilder has an “Advantage Plan” that charges a $12 monthly fee and gives you 12 free trades per month.

Ease of use - Everything was easy to set up (I use my Orange savings account to transfer money free of charge) and the layout is easy to navigate and understand.

Good Reports – You can lookup a stock and view a rather good report that gives all the basic information that one would look for when researching a company and it’s stock. (available only through the Advantage program)

Range of available Investments - stocks, bonds, ETF’s, Funds. Basically anything an average or new investor would want.

Good for New Investors - you can invest as much or as little as you want on any Tuesday you want. They even have a questionnaire for, first timers, that you can go through which gives you different portfolio suggestions based on your answers and "what if" analysis on stocks had you invested in them over a given time period.

What I don’t like:

Their screens and research tools. Though I have to say that there is one which you can screen for recommended stocks based on industry investment grades (A – E). This is similar to MSN Money’s top stocks screener which does give good suggestions.

So, I have set up a Sharebuilder Advantage account.

For 12 dollars a month, I get 12 free trades per month. After that it is $1 a trade. That means for $120 dollars a year (much less than my current $330 or theoretical $1700) I can trade and track a 10 stock portfolio made up from my watch lists. There are no minimum account limits, inactivity fees and because they pool all the trades and monies into Tuesday Trades you are not limited by the cost of the stock either. What I mean by that is one could invest say $50 in a stock. If the stock is $100 a share you get ½ and share. You can’t do this with normal brokers.

I will be maintaining a 10 – 12 stock portfolio based on my watch lists and make my trades on the 1st Tuesday of each month.

I have submitted my change in brokers to Covestor, so once they sync the accounts, they will be tracking my performance.

This month I picked 7 stocks from my starting lineup and 3 from my bench.
















Not bad for 4 days worth of trading! Between the elections (the stock market loves Republicans) and some favorable quarterly reports, the Federal Reserve buying actions and a good jobs report, this has been a really good week for most everybody.

We’ll see how I do for the next 12 months and beyond.

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New Plays

This month, as usual, I have quite a variety of stocks on my watch lists.

Some have been on these before, and in fact a couple are very familier names.

Some are pure Momentum Plays such as:




MIPS
MOTR
SIGA
ASTI
TWER


Some are pure Down and Out Plays due for a rebound:





ARO
TRLG
INTC
HRB
LINC


And others are just reporting improved results and greener pastures such as:





MSFT
ADI
EBAY
RTN
COH


And, I even have a Setup (of sorts):





UTX - But you have to look at it over the range of several years...


So without further delay...

STARTING LINEUP

MSFT - Microsoft Corp
ADI - Analog Devices Inc
ARO - Aeropostale Inc
EBAY - eBay Inc
LINC - Lincoln Educational Services Corp
PLD - PROLOGIS
RTN - Raytheon Company
TRLG - True Religion Apparel Inc
TSRA - Tessera Technologies Inc
WAG - Walgreen Company

BENCH

XLNX - Xilinx Inc
CAH - Cardinal Health Inc
COH - COACH INC
FCX - FREEPORT MCMORAN COPPER & GOLD INC
IBM - INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP
MIPS - Mips Technologies Incorporated
MOTR - Motricity Inc
SIGA - SIGA Technologies Inc
TXN - TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC
UTX - United Technologies Corp

PRACTICE SQUAD

HRB - H&R Block Inc
INTC - Intel Corporation
ASTI - Ascent Solar Technologies Inc
ESIC - Easylink Services International Corp
GPN - Global Payments Inc
HRBN - Harbin Electric Inc
MDT - MEDTRONIC INC
QTM - Quantum Corporation
SDTH - ShengdaTech Inc
TWER -Towerstream Corp

Read more...

Basic Everyday Stock Investing Ideas

Sometimes folks, including myself, get too caught up in over analyzing stocks and companies.

Sometimes folks, including myself, get tunnel vision or self imposed blinders on with investments and do not realize opportunity when they see it.

One very basic tenant of investing is, if you do not understand what a company does or how it makes money, then perhaps you should not invest in it.

By doing research, one can learn about a company and understand what it does and decide if it makes a good investment. By doing this one can literally spend hours staring at the computer screen reading articles, SEC filings, analyst reports and financial statements.

Or, one could take a moment to look at what you do when not staring at the screen with blinders on.

Things like:

Watch Netflix movies (NFLX) 216% YTD Return.
Eat out at McDonalds (MCD) 25% YTD Return or Chipotle's (CMG) 130% YTD Return.
Or buy and sell stuff online with Ebay (EBAY) 33% Three Month Return.

All of these everyday companies that most everyone knows about and uses had huge (really good) quarterly reports this past week.

What other brand name products and services do you use in your basic everyday life?

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The Setup

This blog is about sports and stocks.
The one thing that really gets me going with this blog more than talking sports and fantasy football is stock pattern investing.

One of my watch list stocks (HOGS) had some really great setups over this past week.


















I first took notice of this stock as it made its initial break out and was forming a new resistance level close to $18. The first pattern is an ascending triangle patter that shows a rising strength pattern of continuously lows ascending to a common point of resistance. As it reached the breakout point, a good rise in volume (the lower bar graph) provided good momentum to sustain the upward trend.

The stock then leveled off around $20 and showed a good "resting" pattern and never really dipped below the $20 support level. The only question was, what would it do next?

















Well, towards the end of the day on Wednesday, the stock showed yet again an increase in volume and momentum and broke above the $20.50 resistance level. This upward pattern continued into an amazing 3 tier or (step) pattern. When this happens, and it does not always work out, but when it does a sudden spike upward in price happens after the 3rd tier. Almost always followed by a pull back down until a new support level is reached. In this case, at least for Thursday, it appeared to be around $21.00.

The pattern was actually looking like it would form either a "W" pattern or double bottom pattern, and I was actually a little worried that it did dip below $21 momentarily. But, the stock recovered nicely and as is characteristic of a possible new break out experienced a sudden spike in activity at the end of the day and burst up to $22.00 for a brief moment before the close of the market and a final daily close just below $21.50.

It will be really interesting to see what it does next. Will it continue it's rise to form yet another ascending triangle patter and potentially yet another larger 3rd tier pattern?

Or will it cool off for a while before testing new levels of resistance and support?

Of course I will watch this stock for the rest of the month, but for now I am really psyched that all these patterns happened and that my investment ideas worked as well as they did.

See, I place a buy limit order for when HOGS reached $18.00 per share and then a sell limit order of $21.60 for a nice 20% gain.

Not bad for a weeks worth of investing.

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Can't Complain

For the month of September, my investments returned a healthy 16.59%.
My Starting Lineup returned about 5%
My Bench returned about 8%
and my Practice Squad about 5.5%

So, how did I get the 16.59%? Well, I invested in the big September watch list winner VHC which returned a whopping 70%!

VHC is yet again on my October Watch List simply because it has not shown any signs of weakness yet.

When reviewing my candidates for the October Watch lists, I am once again going to go with the three team / squad approach. This time the practice squad is made up of high risk plays and stocks that have been subject to merger mania.

Starting Lineup:

WWIN : has shown a big pop in volume and recently upgraded by analysts
COCO : is on the rebound after hitting lows and is once again on the list
HOGS : is currently showing good strength and upswing in price
JGBO : could be setting up for a good W pattern if it holds support
NSM : this stock is currently at a decent entry point
SNDK : another stock looking for a good rebound and showing good potential
SNTA : expanding drug trials and research and showing good promise for profit
TPI : recently reported record results and stock is on the rebound
TXN : a big supply winner for all the great Apple i-products out there
VHC : 70% in one month is impressive and no real signs of slowing down - yet

Bench:

FCX : looks like a stock that wants to finish out a strong cup and handle pattern
GILD : this just finished a good W pattern and is hitting top end resistance - watch
TNDM : a decent well run company with recent momentum which has crossed over its 50 day moving average
ASIA : a telecom company which good growth potential with good insider buying
INTC : the chip sector and this company has shown good upswing lately
NEU : showing good momentum and worth watching
NSR : is currently in top end of cup and handle pattern
ONCY : has been showing good strength and momentum and is now showing signs of cooling off - worth a watch
QUIK : another stock showing good potential and worth a watch
GFRE : with a recent announcement of stock buy back and bounce off of lows this stock is showing good recovery

Practice Squad :

AVEO : has regained rights to drugs and patents and has shown really good momentum that it just can not maintain
NPD : very risky spiked movement upwards now without a lot of good support
CRIC : a high flyer in the Chinese real estate sector - can anybody say bubble watch?
CRXL : J&J announced they are planning to buy them out but it is not a done deal yet
GYMB : is considering selling to a private firm, but like CRXL nothing is in writing yet
HNR : another rumored buyout / take-over bid
HYC : entering a hostile take-over bid and potential escalation
OCNW : another potential for a bidding war on this one but not 100% likely
SHG : is showing really strange action for no apparent reason - something might be immanently announced
SVNT : this one is riding the hype wagon, I just do not see why

Oh, and BTW, as of this writing, it looks like both my fantasy football teams are going to finish this week at 3 -1 and at least tied for 1st place.

But more on that later.

Read more...

A New Trading List

This month I am trying something a bit new with my watch lists.

As a result of my various stock screens, I usually end up with anywhere between 40 and 80 potential stocks each month. From this list I can usually go through and pick out the final twenty that I want to have on my starting lineup and bench lists.

Well this month I had a real hard time deciding on my bench so I took an idea out of the NFL rule book and added a Practice Squad.

This month there is a diverse list of potential stocks to choose from ranging from Pink Slips to Large mega-billion dollar companies, from bio-pharms to retail to tech to industrials.

Each has different reasons to consider buying.

Starting lineup

MSFT Microsoft Corp
- Always a good buy when low and with a natural, but economic delayed, refresh cycle coming up of all their corporate OS and Apps is looking especially attractive.

DELL Dell Inc
- A beaten down tech company trying to rebuild and just might be turning the corning in time to catch an uptick in spending.

BKE Buckle, Inc. (The)
- There are a couple retailers on my lists and this is one which was just recently upgraded and showing good momentum.

FUQI Fuqi International, Inc.
- This company has always made it through my filters and screens and I usually do not pick it because of personal choice to avoid gold and precious metal stocks. However this one is now in a good potential reversal “W” pattern and officially meets one of the Fumbled Returns stock picking strategies. So here it is making its grand debut.

GFRE Gulf Resources, Inc.
- This one appears to be in a good horizontal trading pattern which would be good for those of you who like to buy and sell on the dips and peaks. Buy below 8.5 and sell close to or above 9.5

HITK Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co., Inc.
- This is a risky play because they are reporting Wednesday and definitely has the potential to not surprise analysts. However, it does appear to be in the bottom part of a cup and handle pattern and is worth a watch for a reversal trend upwards.

LLY ELI LILLY & CO
- Another possible “cup” pattern with a little upside potential with a big name brand Pharm company.

JKS JinkoSolar Holding Co Ltd
- This, as well as the following two, show really good strength and momentum in price, volume and ownership.

NNBR NN Inc

AMRN Amarin Corp Plc


Bench

VHC VirnetX Holding Corp
- Recent patent lawsuit settlement and rumors of possible buyouts has fueled the stock. Patents are always a good thing and larger cash rich companies could view buying them out as a cheaper alternative to legal fees and settlement charges.

ARO Aeropostale Inc
- Another well known and liked (I have teenagers) name brand always well positioned to not only ride out a bad economy but to also recover well once spending has started. And just in case you have not noticed, school is back in session and teenagers never want to show up in last years fashions.

ASYS Amtech Systems Inc
- This is another company with monthly volume and ownership rising.

BPI Bridgepoint Education, Inc.
- The Feds just released a report which showed which “for profit” educational companies could meet their financial reform guidelines. Only four came through with flying colors. This is one of them and its stock is on the rise.

BZ Boise Inc Boise Inc.
- This company does not specifically meet any pattern or trend rule of mine but rather a good growth prospect at a good value.

COH COACH INC
- Another good retail company that refuses to lose money even during a recession. And investors are rewarding them.

EBAY eBay Inc
- Another first for me listing. This stock is down but the company certainly is not out. With the economy being bad and school, holidays and par, folks are looking for bargains, and

HRS Harris
- A federal contractor whose stock also seems to be in a possible “w” reversal pattern.

INTC INTEL CORP
- This is another company not in any particular pattern but definitely well positioned to benefit from any uptick in tech spending. Good growth potential at a good price value.

MRVL Marvell Technology Group Ltd
- It has been a while since this company has made the list and it has bounced up nicely recently and is now in a potential breakout pattern pushing up against a resistance level.


Practice Squad

TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC
- A good retail tech company which happens to be at a peak instead of a low. Look to buy at 23.

ISH International Shipholding Corp
- Another potential good growth prospect at a value.

NSR NeuStar Inc
- Good contrarian market play potential here with a well run company

POWL Powell Industries, Inc.
- Growth and Value

PPG PPG Industries Inc
- A large long term investment – not really a great fit for my fumbled criteria.

PTEC Phoenix Technologies Ltd
- This is a company that was bought up – or at least accepted an offer. Usually I write these off the list but recent rumors and interest from other potential buyers may fuel a bidding war.

SCL Stepan Company
- Another growth for value play with a good company

SNDK SanDisk Corp
- This was on a previous list and now makes an interesting contrarian play with a good well run company.

AVARF Avalon Rare Metals Inc
- I usually avoid pink slip stocks but this and the following one are showing really good strength and momentum with up-ticks in ownership and volume.

FRMSF First Majestic Silver Corp

Read more...

Stock Watch

OK, so I lost a little ground to the standard averages this past month.

July Starting Linup = 4%
July Bench = 2%

DOW = 7%
NASDAQ = 7%




But for the year to date, I am still ahead about 13%. Though good, its not nearly as much as I would like.

So lets see how well I do with my August Watch Lists.

August Starting Lineup Watch List

CSKI - China Sky One Medical Inc
AFAM - Almost Family Inc
CEU - China Education Alliance Inc
CMFO - China Marine Food Group Ltd
GFRE - Gulf Resources Inc
MFW - M & F Worldwide Corp.
CAST - ChinaCast Education Corp
CECO - Career Education Corp
JGBO - Jiangbo Pharmaceuticals Inc
KWR - Quaker Chemical Corp

August Bench Watch List

MSFT - MICROSOFT CORP
SIHI - SinoHub Inc
TJX - TJX COS INC
UIS - Unisys Corp
UTA - Universal Travel Group
XLNX - Xilinx Inc
ARNA - Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc
IDSA - Industrial Services of America Inc
MDF - Metropolitan Health Networks
VSEC - VSE Corp

Read more...

NFL Stocks - Revisited

Last February I published the NFL Stock Portfolio.

Back then, its 12 month return was an impressive 70%.




Lets see how it, and the stock market, has done over the past 6 months.

DOW Jones Industrial Average Return = 4.2%
NASDAQ Average Return = 5.9%

NFL Stock Portfolio Return = 18%

At this rate, I think I might just switch official watch lists.

The Official Fumbled Returns NFL Stock Portfolio is not made up of companies who have sports related products, or sponsorships, but rather stocks that have symbols which look like they could represent a particular team.

This is my version of the monkey throwing darts theory of picking stocks and it seems to be doing quite well.

As one might imagine, it was a bit difficult to actually come up with a symbol which easily could be related to an NFL franchise abbreviation or location. But I did manage to come up with one for each team. In some cases, I have alternates listed as well. I have counted these towards the average return for the watch list.

You can look up your favorite team stock symbol below to see how they have done.

The listing below show the following:

Company Name ---- Symbol ---- 02/2009 to 02/2010 Return ---- 2010 Return Since Feb.

AFC North

Raven Industries, Inc.---- RAVN----- 24% ----- 31%
Bengal Energy LTD ------ BNG.TO--- 180% -- -14%
Cleveland Biolabs Inc.---- CBLI ----- 29% ------ -6%
BigBen Interactive ------ BIG.PA -- 43% ------- 4%

AFC South

Texas Instruments ----- TXN ----- 44% ----- 10%
Colt Telecom Group ----- COLT.L ----- 48% ----- 12%
Jaguar Minning ----- JAG ----- 86% ----- -19%
Titan Machinery ----- TITN ----- 4% ----- 22%

AFC East

Buffalo Wild Wings ----- BWLD ----- 110% ----- -9%
Dolphin Capital Inv ----- DOLHF ----- 39% ----- -31%
Patriout Coal ----- PCX ----- 200% ----- -9%
JHT Total Stock Index ----- JETSX ----- 29% ----- 6%

AFC West

Bronco Drilling Co. ----- BRNC ---- -11% ----- -25%
Kansas City Southern ----- KSU ----- 45% ----- 27%
Oakmark Equity Income ----- OAKBX ----- 20% ----- 1%
Bolt Technology ---- BOLT ---- 32% ---- -11%

AFC Conference Average Return ----- 58% ------ -1%

Alternate Names

Proshares Shortdow30 ----- DOG ----- -26% ----- -7%
Pittsburgh and WV RR ----- PW ----- -7% ----- -3%
Global Titans ----- DGT ----- 26% ----- -2%
Tennessee Power ----- TVE ----- 0% ----- 3%
Blue Dolphin Energy Co ----- BDCO ----- 6% ----- 387%
New England Bank Shares ----- NEBS ----- -26% ----- 34%
Dolphin Capital Inv ----- DOLHF ----- 39% ----- -31%
MassMutual Prem Index ----- DENVX ----- 24% ----- 5%
Kansas City Life Ins ----- KCLI ----- -18% ----- 23%


NFC North


Citi Group ----- C ----- -7% ----- 25%
Fidelity Souther Corp ----- LION ----- 81% ----- 31%
Grup Aeroport ----- PAC ----- 72% ----- 4%
MFS Intermediate Trust ----- MIN ----- 7% ----- 2%

NFC South

Falconstor Softwore Inc ----- FALC ----- -10% ----- 3%
Avis Budget Group ----- CAR ----- 1387% ----- 3%
Blackrock International ----- BRESX ----- 34% ----- 2%
The Bank Corp TBBK ----- 109% ----- 10%

NFC East

Delta Airlines ----- DAL ----- 74% ----- 1%
ishares NYSE ----- NY ----- 17% ----- 1%
Eagle Bulk Shipping ----- EGLE ----- -41% ----- -4%
Dana Holdings ----- DAN ----- 1115% ----- 20%

NFC West

Cardinal Health ----- CAH ----- -13% ----- 3%
Stifel Financial ----- SF ----- 37% ----- -8%
Seahawk Drilling ----- HAWK ----- -14% ----- -52%
Sterling Bancorp ----- STL ----- -36% ----- 27%

NFC Conference Average Return ----- 186% ----- 4%


Alternate Names

Green Bankshares ----- GRNB ----- -34% ----- 82%
Purple Corporation ----- PRPL ----- -89% ----- 1%
Russel Quantitative ----- REDSX ----- 20% ----- 1%
Formula Systems ----- FORTY ----- 154% ----- 12%

Read more...

Due this week

So it is now reporting season once again and there are quite a few of my stocks from this months watch list reporting just this week alone.

ClickSoftware CKSW
Upgraded to market outperform on July 14th and reports before market open July 21.
Last quarterly reported 34% growth and no debt.


Capital One COF
Reports July 22.
One of the better indicators of the "wellness" or lack there of is this stock. No so much in its profit but the number of loan defaults and balance rates of card holders.


Microsoft MSFT
Reports July 22
With IBM missing on sales and revenue but upping forecast it will be interesting to see if Micosoft registers a gain in earnings and stock price. With new upgrades to Office and Windows 7 and anticipated corporate renewals this stock is at a very attractive price but may not yet be seeing the anticipated returns on all its new product releases.


Sandisk SNDK
Reports July 22.
Upgraded by UBS to Buy on July 12.
Low debt ratio and solid quarterly earnings. For a while it was speculated that Sandisk would be supplying iPhones but the are not. Regardless, there is an industry shortage of Flash devices due to the popularity of all smart phones, music/video devices, and cameras.


Apple AAPL
Reports July 20th.
So, what do you make of Apple? Reports record sales of multiple new products. Design flaw with their antenna. And somewhat arrogant and sloppy PR handling of the press and public opinion and reviews.
Remember, to be #1, you don’t have to be perfect, you don’t have to be the best, you just have to be better than everyone else.
I just wish Steve and Apple didn’t pull a BP with their press conference and call everyone else the little people for blowing this way out of proportion and not understanding everything that goes into a smart phone.

BTW did anybody catch the ballsy antenna song that apple aired prior to their conference?

Read more...

Slick Move

Now this is a picture that I am sure all of us have waited way too long to see.

No more oil spewing into the gulf!

I mentioned back on June 19th that perhaps THEN was the opportunity to actually invest in BP.

Yes invest, not boycott. Boycotting actually hurts consumers and our fellow neighbors more than BP.

Back then BP stock was $30.64

Now it just closed at $38.92

That is a 27% return.

If you invested then. . .

Time to sell.

Read more...

The Big Thaw

June was the warmest June in recorded history for Washington DC.

We had 18 days of 90+ degrees
The next three days of July are expected to reach 100.

All this warm weather make me wish we had Snowmagedon again.

Back in the cold old days (December 2009 - March 2010) we had record snow falls and record cold temperatures.

Between November 1, 2009 and May 1, 2010 the DOW rose nearly 15% from about 9700 to over 11,300.

Like the record heat and the memories of all that wonderful snow, all the profits we experienced during this brief recovery have melted away.

The DOW now sits at 9686.

Bye Bye Snow

Bye Bye Profits.








Two months ago I was worried that so much of the market was at 52 week highs and all the bail out and incentives for economic growth were expiring that we were due for a correction.

Now, along with all that, and a record oil spill, folks are talking about a double dip recession.

And I am still worried, not because of the abnormal record highs, but because now so much of the market is either at, or approaching, critical low support levels; that if they do not hold, we will be dipping back into a recessionary pattern.

If some of the stocks on my July watch list pan out, and the support levels hold, we could see a short term rebound. If not, well then the thaw continues and we are indeed in store for a rough ride.

Hmmm, just in case you did not notice, I just said that I was either going to make money or lose money in the stock market... Profound wisdom if I do say so myself...

So, with that said, here is my July watch list with a new, and still evolving format, (I've decided to list the Stock along with a short reason why to buy it and one reason why not to buy it )to help folks decide the pros and cons to investing in any of these ideas.

STARTING LINEUP:

MDF - Metropolitan Health Networks
Why Buy? High inside ownership, Good Cash Flow, profitable, good return on assets, Maintaining valuation in down market.
Why Not? Still within 20% of 52 week high, Uncertainty in Healthcare field and increased risk with all the new regulations.
Reports August 2nd.

NBIX - Neurocrine Biosciences Inc
Why Buy? Still maintaining good money flow and relative strength. recently entered a deal with Abbott, which paid Neurocrine $75 million upfront, with the potential for another $500 million plus royalties still to come.
Why Not? May be cooling off of recent momentum swing and like any pharm company, their pipeline is always a gamble as to whether or not the product ever gets to market.
Reports August 2nd.

CKSW - ClickSoftware Technologies Ltd.
Why Buy? Money flow and Relative Strength are increasing, may be setting up into a reversal (double bottom or W) pattern after falling over 25%. A well run, profitable, not debt company.
Why Not? Pattern may not hold up and needs to be watched. Reasons for drop include economic crisis in Europe which accounts for a large portion of their revenue and two counter intuitive prospectus filings which worried many investors.
Reports July 15th.

CNU - Continucare Corp.
Why Buy? Near low support level of 3.4 – 3.5. No Debt. High inside ownership. Not under federal investigation.
Why Not? Federal investigations into other providers in the industry has driven all stock prices lower and may spook investors. May not bounce off of support levels due to selling pressures.
Reports September 6th.

COF - Capital One Financial Corp.
Why Buy? OK, how many of you said “what’s in your wallet”. Name Recognition. Federal Bail out. May be setting up a “w” pattern with buy in support near 38.
Why Not? Economy, debt and defaults are still a problem. Money flow, relative strength and trend lines are decreasing. The “w” pattern may not pan out and may actually be the signal of a reversal pattern. So this requires a close watch. Goal would to be buy at 38 and sell around 42.
Reports July 22nd.

DD - Du Pont
Why Buy? This is actually a good recovery stock to invest in over the long term – because the recovery will be long and choppy. Pays good dividends. Look for this stock to bounce off of a double support level close to 34.
Why Not? Market uncertainty and “double dip” recession will affect this global company and the 34 support level may not hold. Money flow and strength trending lower.
Reports July 27th.

IDCC - InterDigital, Inc.
Why Buy? wireless technology and patent company expanding overseas market which is one of the larger segments of this line of business. Currently at low support levels.
Why Not? Still under selling pressure with money flow and relative strength weakening.
Reports July 26th.

IPXL - Impax Laboratories Inc
Why Buy? Great generic drug manufacturer and distributor with opportunity to expand generic pipeline and nearing attractive price point between 17 and 18. No debt.
Why Not? Competition, patent infringement law suits, and current eroding of money flow and relative strength make this a gamble.
Reports August 2nd.

RGR - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.
Why Buy? This took off for a 40% run the last time I put it on my watch list in March and has since fallen back off of its peak. Deserves a watch to see what happens price wise between 12 – 14. Recent economic downturn and favorable court ruling make this worth another entry on to the watch list. Profitable and no debt company.
Why Not? Although it is approaching another support point, trend lines have not completely stopped their downward movement off of the high points. The 12 support level is critical and is still more than 10% difference.
Reports July 26th.

SCL - Stepan Company
Why Buy? Well run specialty chemical company making investments world wide to expand capability and efficiency of delivery to a global market.
Why Not? Payoffs to these investments are at least a year away and current economic issues weigh, like other stocks, on the price of this investment opportunity.
Reports July 26th.

BENCH:

CEU - China Education Alliance, Inc.
Why Buy? at critical low support level (triple bottom pattern with not a lot of upward momentum support) - risky play to bet going back up but worth a watch. No debt, high profit margins, and inside investors.
Why Not? The Motley Fool has articles posted galore about this stock.. ;-) . Seriously though, this is an out of favor industry lately and they do face a fair amount of competition over seas.

CMFO - China Marine Food Group Limited
Why Buy? has been falling lately but an uptic in money flow and ownership might indicate the beginnings of an upswing - watch
Why Not? There have been rumors and accusations regarding fraud with this company however the fact of the matter is that many of their actions are concerned with “empire” building and stock price rather than building up tangible value in the company. This may all pan out in the future but for now this is purely a short term bet.

GFRE - Gulf Resources Inc
Why Buy? at a low support level - look to see if it drops closer to 8 - recent article about china investing in oil reserves to help support growing economy - may be time to buy into this. No Debt, high insider investment, high rate of return on capital and assets.
Why Not? In addition to the low support level, the stock has also failed to break top resistance either and this might be a sign of continued weakness.
Reports August 9th.

ABC - AmerisourceBergen Corp
Why Buy? A financial management company in an out of favor industry that has a good dividend yield an good profit margins and is nearing a historical low point. Definitely one worth watching in my book. This falls into my ideal contrarian mold.
Why Not? A fair amount of debt, lower than ideal profit margins and low insider investing.
Reports July 26th.

AMGN - AMGEN INCWhy Buy? A big, I mean really big pharm company at a low support level with a good pipeline of prospects makes this a stock worth putting on the watch list.
Why Not? As with any pharm company, not everything in the pipeline will succeed nor is it immune from competition and patent infringement lawsuits.
Reports July 29th.

BBY - BEST BUY CO INC
Why Buy? If an economic recovery kicks in, this is a great stock to have. It is currently at low support levels and looking as an attractive buy.
Why Not? Well, if nobody gets jobs, then the economy will stall, and people will not buy stuff from Best Buy. Carries a fair amount of debt which could also put it at risk.
Reports September 14th.

CEPH - Cephalon, Inc.
Why Buy? Just like AMGN - good returns, pipeline, expanded research and all time support low
Why Not? It has been mired in lawsuits and patent infringement cases throughout it’s history.
Reports July 27th.

CRVP - Crystal Rock Holdings, Inc.
Why Buy? Well, penny stocks so rarely make my lists that I just had to take a closer look at this one. For a penny stock they have decent numbers and are at the bottom of a well established trading range.
Why Not? I do not see any long term expansion plans, or new marketing plans. Therefore not huge amounts of growth. However, they could be bought out by a large cap competitor but this is the equivalent of winning the lottery.
Reports September 13th.

MSFT - MICROSOFT CORP
Why Buy? The stock is approaching an attractive buy in price and they have recently entered into a new product upgrade cycle with Windows 7, which has good reviews, and Office 2010. Business will upgrade to these new and improved products.
Why Not? Though attractive price it has not reached a support level nor is there any guarantee exactly when business will feel compelled to spend the money on upgrades. This is obviously dependent on the economic recovery.
Reports July 22nd.

SNDK - SanDisk Corp
Why Buy? Approaching good support and buy in price of 40 with anticipated future demand for chips in the Tech market a buy for this stock.
Why Not? Tech stocks are particularly susceptible to market and economic sentiment, especially bad economic news.

Read more...

Small People

So, on the one hand you have BP and their executives, and heck, even the entire oil industry and even the Obama administration that folks are beginning to really hate.










On the other hand, you have these people who, though well intentioned, are going about it all the wrong way.












Here is why.

BP does not make a lot of money off of the individual gas stations. And let me stress "individual" because the retailers are often folks from your neighborhood who depend on the sale of not only the gas but all the impulse necessities that go along with it: like Milk, Donuts, Coffee, Hot Dogs, etc etc...

With these economic hard times, the last thing we need to be doing is putting folks out of a job.

BP makes a lot of money off of the crude oil that it sells. That means they sell the crude oil before if ever reaches the gas pump. In fact, you could buy BP crude oil by products from most any other retailers (not just gas station) in most every area of the economy. In fact it could show up in just about any petroleum based product.

Boycotting BP does not really hurt BP nearly as much as it hurts the small people individual people and families in our communities.

So what do we do?

The problem is not just with BP or the Government but with our nations dependency on oil. Period.

A while back I posted this post about seizing the moment to change our energy dependency. Yes, the president mentioned this during his speech the other night but it was a little late.

The plan, everyone needs a plan, should be to ween ourselves off of oil dependency.

Some say do not buy BP stock. Well, that has already happened. BP stock has been cut in half and is still under downward pressure. In fact, whenever they get around to actually stopping the oil leak, I would argue that it is time to buy their stock.

The big question is how low will the stock price go. I think it is probably at a support level now. If it continues downward, look for a 65-70% reduction then beyond that close to 85-90%.

So, how can we make BP pay up and punish them at the same time?

Well, they have already put up $20 Billion dollars worth of their own capital up for compensation. So, we do not want BP to go out of business.

But believe me, if their stock goes down anywhere close to 90% in value, (that would be close to $10 or less in price), I say buy as much as you possibly can. Because when it goes back up, and it will, you can sell that stock you just made a killing on and use the profits to buy an eco-friendly or natural gas car!

Don't worry, by then gas stations will have plenty of options available for fueling or recharging cars.

Read more...

June Stock Update

OK, I'll admit it. It has been a terrible stretch for stocks the past several weeks and many a portfolio has suffered... Including mine.

But a couple stocks on my watch lists are on the move.

NBIX - Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. +34% for the month

Has announced two major world wide collaborations with other drug makers and distributors.

UPI - Uroplasty, Inc. +20% for the month

Has announced that they are on the preliminary list for the Russell Microcap Index due out June 15th. This will really help gain exposure to this small volume stock play.

AAPL - Apple. +9% in one week.

An old favorite and former watch list stock Apple has recently started presales launch of their new iPhone4, which was in such great demand that they and AT&T had to halt pre-release sales and postpone the delivery date. Nothing drives up a stock price more than overwhelming demand for a new product. Especially one that even isn't out on the market yet.

Read more...

Halfway

We are now officially half way through the year. Can you believe it is already June! And in the world of Fumbled Returns, that means a quick review of my resolutions.

Debt reduction plan is progressing but slower than I had anticipated but progress is progress so I am going to count it at least a partial success. Though, something tells me that I may not be doing so well in the very near future. I’ll save that for a possible future post. Hopefully not but , oh never mind.

On with the rest of my resolutions.

I picked up 4 out of my 5 new followers thanks to some creative blogging over at life with dogs, aka blog hops. Welcome aboard. This brings my total up to 16. I only need 4 more to reach my goal for the year!

I Have not quite re-started up my borderless fantasy football league yet so I cannot count any success towards that goal, YET.

And if anybody wants to help contribute to some content in this blog and join my Fumbled Returns Fantasy Football league, just send me an email and I’ll send you an invite. You could win the league and be a guest blogger all at the same time!

Despite a horribly terrible month of May, Starting Lineup -9.5% Bench -8.5% (I should have followed my own advice and cashed out) my investments are doing OK over all.
It still pains me a little to think that I had already passed my yearly goal in April, only to fall behind in only one month. But hey, I have the rest of the year to make up for lost ground. At least I am still way ahead of all the indexes.

My other endeavors have really fallen by the way side and I am just about to throw in the towel on those so it looks like at least one of my goals will not have a big ol’ smiley face next to it at the end of the year.

So that leaves me with my monthly picks for the month of June. (Drum roll please . . .)

STARTING LINEUP

IPXL - Impax Laboratories Inc
MDF - Metropolitan Health Networks Inc
SYNT - Syntel Inc
BTN - Ballantyne Strong Inc
CAST - ChinaCast Education Corp
DECK - Deckers Outdoor Corp
GYMB - Gymboree Corp
MFW - M&F WORLDWIDE
SPRD - Spreadtrum Communications Inc
MAT - Mattel Inc

BENCH

CECO - Career Education Corp
CSKI - China Sky One Medical Inc
NEU - NewMarket Corp
NBIX - Neurocrine Biosciences Inc
UPI - Uroplasty Inc
GPS - GAP INC
MSFT - Microsoft Corp
CCMO - CC Media Holdings Inc
HRL - Hormel Foods Corp
LLL - L-3 Communications Holdings Inc

Hopefully my June investment will do better than my May investments.

Read more...

Time for a time out?

I could just take my year to date investment gains and just sit on the side lines.









After all , my goal was something like 24% return, and I have reached that already.









And for anybody else currently in the stock market, pulling out now and holding on to cash may not be a bad idea.

From European Debt crisis, to Gulf Gooo, to Failed fail safes, and circumventing reporting and documentation guidelines, the stock market certainly looks scary right about now.




Unfortunately, the current state of the world economy and the stock market , corporate America, and most everything in general reminds me that everyone seems to to be behaving like a bunch of monkeys. Namely these monkeys.










And that is never a good situation.

But I still have a couple stock ideas that just might pan out so I think I will at least keep my feet in the mix and make sure that I have those stop loss orders in place to protect my investments.

I am currently invested in two companies, volatile Bio Pharm KERX and a weapons company RGR. Both KERX and RGR were setting up for an upswing before the whole bottom of the stock market, and the Greek Debt crisis caught hold of everybodys attention. Since then neither has broken upwards but neither has significantly fallen, yet.

Two stocks which report this week are ARO and CPWM.

ARO is a good strong company that I expect to give a decent quarterly report, however, recent data and retail sales statistics indicate that although the retail sector is no longer going down, it may still have a long way to go before it truly goes back up. CPWM has also weathered the recent turmoil well and could be ready to go back up with a good report.

Of course, this is all dependent on IF the markets don’t panic again and continue the downward trends.

With consumer and investor confidence low, and mixed recession ending data being reported, these are all really big IF’s.

So, stand by for a bumpy ride.

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