Hours of Entertainment !

One of the presents my kids gave me for Fathers Day was the ESPN Fantasy Football 2010 Magazine.

Beyond all the stats, they have a bunch of information on Sleepers and Busts, Rookies and Veterans, Keepers and last but not least Strategy!

For this post, I’m going to start with their reviews of strategy.

1) Bookends: This is more of an analysis of draft position rather than a strategy. I’ve always hated drafting in the dead middle of the pack and their statistics seem to prove the point. But unless if you are in a league which allows trading for position this first tid bit of information is next to useless. Mainly because you generally have little to None control over it. So, this is interesting but little to no value for strategy. The key to Fantasy Football is paying attention for the entire season.

2) Cuff’em: This can be a draft strategy but it’s true value is in an overall league and season strategy. This is when you pick the backup to a Top Tier player. And, this is definitely one to keep in mind and use wisely and definitely falls into the “pay attention” strategy for the entire season. For a draft strategy this can be a bit risky since you can not accurately predict injuries but lots of people use this strategy on the waiver wires. Again, pay attention to waiver order throughout the season! Acquiring the backup can change the whole power plays of you league and give you added advantage in both matchups and potential trades.

3) Value Based Drafting: Here is the scenario; it’s your turn to draft in the second round and you have 3 really good players still on the board all of who scored just about the same total points last year. Who do you pick? Answer: The one who outscored his competition the most. VBD is the difference between a players point total and the baseline score for his position. How do you calculate it? First you calculate how many roster spots are drafted on average in a particular league. The example ESPN used was 16 QB’s, 38 RB’s, 33 WR’s in a 10 team league. Take the point total of the 16^th QB and that is your Baseline Score for QB’s. So, lets say you have a choice between Joe Flacco and Ryan Grant. Both scored 197 and 196 points respectively in the ESPN stats last year. But Ryan Grant scored 103 points more than the baseline for his position compared to -2 for Joe Flacco. VBD says pick Ryan Grant.

4) Forget about RB-RB drafting: Draft WR-WR or RB-WR. Based on their stats, WR-WR-RB-RB and WR-RB-WR-RB outscored RB-RB-WR-WR every time. Why? More and more teams are using RB by committee now which makes the top WR’s more valuable. Personally I have almost always avoided RB-RB because I like to diversify rather than putting all my eggs in one basket.

5) Slow down on the TE’s: This one is more rather, if you don’t jump the gun and or get really lucky getting the top or top 2 TE’s better hold off on getting one and load up on QB, RB, and WR instead. Why? It actually has something to do with VBD. Historically the total difference between the 5^th and 14^th total scores for TE was 30 points. That is less than 2 points per game. Hardly a significant difference in their opinion.

6) Respect Seniors – Just don’t draft them: Statistically this is very true for RB. The 30 and over club sees at least a 12 – 14% drop per game as compared to when they were 29 and nearly 30% less than their 25 year old counterparts. So, who are the 25 year old studs this year? Reggie Bush, Justin Forsett, Shonne Greene, Chris Johnson, MJD, Laurence Maroney, Adrian Peterson and Pierre Thomas. Who is 30 and over this year? Justin Fargas, Willie Parker, Larry Johnson, Derrick Ward, LT, Thomas Jones, Chester Taylor, and Ricky Williams.

7) Draft the West Coast: Here is their scenario. Your star player is slated to play in the second set of games on Sunday and is listed as questionable. Your prime backup is healthy and listed as ready to play in the first set of Sunday Games. If you draft your backups from the west coast, the theory says that most of the time your stars will be playing first and the backups second. That way if for some reason your star, sits out, you can adjust your roster to activate your backup. So, which teams have double digit late starts? Arizona, Denver, Indy, Oakland, San Diego, Seattle. There are a ton of teams with double digit early starts. So chances are that with the majority of teams having early starts, chances are your starters will play early more often than not. So, which have zero late starts? Buffalo, Cleveland, and Detroit. Hmmm. . . I am a bit more skeptical with this strategy than the others. Pros are paid to play and unless if you have one who is going to be a crybaby every time he gets a booboo I don’t put a lot of substance in this strategy.

8) Don’t bench your big guns: Even if Hell or Green Bay Freezes over. . . Out of the 17 coldest snowiest contests, only 3 featured more rushing yards than passing. Again, just like the previous example, the pros come out to play.

9) Bid Fearlessly: If you are in a bidding league they claim this strategy works if you follow their example. Don’t bid on the first one or two players offered up. But bid aggressively on any and all others. So if AP and Chris Johnson go for $62 and $60 bid up to $67 for Ray Rice. If somebody out bids you then fine, let them. Bid just as aggressively for all others. Once people see how crazy you are, they will either not bother or bail early and you will be able to get somebody like MJD for a much better bargain. I’ve never been in a cap or bidding league and probably never will. So I will just take their word for it. However, there is something to be said about psychology and playing mind games with others in Fantasy Football. This is especially true with potential trades. Again, a strategy to keep in mind throughout the season.

10) Stack your Byes: I actually came across this one while trying to figure out who to keep, if anybody, in my Borderless League. I noticed that a fair number of my potential keepers had the same bye weeks this year. So I did a little research and, as it turns out, so did ESPN. The best bye weeks to stack your players is 8, 4 and 7. The theory is this. If all of your starters have the same bye week, then yes you probably will lose that weeks match up, but they will all be playing while other teams are trying to juggle the one or two starters they have out over the span of 2 or 3 weeks or more during the season. You could be looking at a 4 – 7 point advantage during those other 2 – 3 weeks. Of course, good luck in trying to draft all your starters with the same bye week, but it is an interesting idea.

I think, simply because I have a lot of players I like on my current team I will limit my draft preferences to these weeks. So, who shows up on my list? BTW, I included week 6 because two of my favorite choices for “wanting back” are on this week. The players in Red are the ones who are currently on my team who I like and are considering either keeping and or getting back in the draft.

Player	Bye	Position
Adrian Peterson, MIN	4	RB
Ray Rice, BAL	8	RB
Andre Johnson, HOU	7	WR
Peyton Manning, IND	7	QB
Michael Turner, ATL	8	RB
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI	6	WR
DeAngelo Williams, CAR	6	RB
Cedric Benson, CIN	6	RB
Matt Schaub, HOU	7	QB
Roddy White, ATL	8	WR
Calvin Johnson, DET	7	WR
Tony Romo, DAL	4	QB
Miles Austin, DAL	4	WR
DeSean Jackson, PHI	8	WR
Jonathan Stewart, CAR	6	RB
Shonn Greene, NYJ	7	RB
LeSean McCoy, PHI	8	RB
Beanie Wells, ARI	6	RB
Jamaal Charles, KC	4	RB
Joseph Addai, IND	7	RB
Steve Smith, CAR	6	WR
Sidney Rice, MIN	4	WR
Matt Forte, CHI	8	RB
Joe Flacco, BAL	8	QB
Jay Cutler, CHI	8	QB
Dallas Clark, IND	7	TE
Brandon Jacobs, NYG	8	RB
Felix Jones, DAL	4	RB
Chad Ochocinco, CIN	6	WR
Steve Smith, NYG	8	WR
Anquan Boldin, BAL	8	WR
Jerome Harrison, CLE	8	RB
Percy Harvin, MIN	4	WR
Jahvid Best, DET	7	RB
Tony Gonzalez, ATL	8	TE
Dwayne Bowe, KC	4	WR
Brent Celek, PHI	8	TE
Thomas Jones, KC	4	RB
C.J. Spiller, BUF	6	RB
Jeremy Maclin, PHI	8	WR
Jason Witten, DAL	4	TE
Philadelphia Eagles	8	DST
Matt Leinart, ARI	6	QB
Marion Barber, DAL	4	RB
Baltimore Ravens	8	DST
Steve Breaston, ARI	6	WR
Brett Favre, MIN	4	QB
Pierre Garcon, IND	7	WR
Braylon Edwards, NYJ	7	WR
Ben Tate, HOU	7	RB
Owen Daniels, HOU	7	TE
Santonio Holmes, NYJ	7	WR
Donald Brown, IND	7	RB
Cleveland Browns	8	DST
Kellen Winslow, TB	4	TE
Dez Bryant, DAL	4	WR
Cadillac Williams, TB	4	RB
Chicago Bears	8	DST
LaDainian Tomlinson, NYJ	7	RB
Josh Cribbs, CLE	8	WR
New York Jets	7	DST
Devin Hester, CHI	8	WR
Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ	7	WR
Dallas Cowboys	4	DST
Arian Foster, HOU	7	RB
Kevin Smith, DET	7	RB
Minnesota Vikings	4	DST
Bernard Berrian, MIN	4	WR
Derrick Ward, TB	4	RB
New York Giants	8	DST
Atlanta Falcons	8	DST

Of course, I will have to wait and see who of these get claimed as keepers by the other teams in my league, but it is an interesting list.

Oh, and one last strategy that I happen to use which was not mentioned in the ESPN strategies was that I often try to look at who the potential bubble teams are going to be. You know the ones who towards the end of the season are going to be fighting for a playoff spot as opposed to those, like Indy, who probably will be a lock and either coast in or sit many of their starters. Why do I do this? Because the end of the season is when the Fantasy League playoffs and championships are! And, after all it is the Championship of your league that you are really playing for and want players putting forth their best effort towards now isn’t it!

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Top 24's

Ok, so in my last post I mentioned that I am commissioner a league with 12 teams.
So, I've been playing around with draft orders and here is what I have come up with for RB, WR and QB.

I list them in that order because at the very least, that is what I usually try and draft 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Sometimes, depending on how the draft is progressing, I may even draft up to 2 RB's and 2 WR's before drafting a QB. Then I start going for the best available TE, Def, and K's.

Now, there is still plenty of time to over analyze this even more, and I will, all the while knowing it makes very little difference but hey, it is Fantasy after all and I want to at least delude myself that my preferences really do give me an edge... ;-)

So, without further delay....

My completely biased and crazy top 24's

RB
Adrian Peterson
Maurice Jone-Drew
Michael Turner
Chris Johnson
DeAngelo Williams
LaDainian Tomlinson
Clinton Portis
Steve Slaton
Frank Gore
Matt Forte
Ronnie Brown
Knowshon Moreno
Darren McFadden
Chris Wells
Jonathan Stewart
Pierre Thomas
Kevin Smith
Thomas Jones
Steven Jackson
Brian Westbrook
Darren Sproles
Ryan Grant
Derrick Ward
Reggie Bush

WR
Larry Fitzgerald
Andre Johnson
Calvin Johnson
Greg Jennings
Randy Moss
Reggie Wayne
Lee Evans
Steve Smith
Roddy White
Anquan Boldin
Desean Jackson
Wes Welker
Marques Colston
Terrel Owens
Roy E. Williams
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Vincent Jackson
Dwayne Bowe
Jeremy Maclin
Devin Hester
Braylon Edwards
Chad Ochocinco
Antonio Bryant
Hines Ward

QB
Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Kurt Warner
Drew Brees
Matt Schaub
Donovan McNabb
Matt Ryan
Philip Rivers
Aaron Rodgers
Ben Roethlisberger
Jay Cutler
Matt Cassel
Eli Manning
David Garrard
Trent Edwards
Jake Delhomme
Tony Romo
Shaun Hill
Jason Campbell
Carson Palmer
Joe Flaco
Kyle Orton
Matt Hasselbeck
Chad Pennington

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Fantasy Football Strategy

OK, so I've heard talk every year about Fantasy Football Strategies.

So I did a quick look at a couple sites based on a very generic Fantasy Football Strategy search, and this is what I found.

From





I got the following articles on advice:

- Knowing About Bye Weeks Can Only Hurt You- June 12, 2009
- Importance of December Weather- June 10, 2009
- Don't Worry About 2009 Strength of Schedule- June 8, 2009
- Forget About Brees, Brady and Manning- June 6, 2009
- Crabtree: Not Such a Steal in Fantasy Drafts - June 4, 2009
- Moreno: Only Undervalued Rookie RB - June 2, 2009
- Breakout Wide Receivers - May 29, 2009
- Breakout Running Backs - May 27, 2009
- Draft Talent, Not Consistency - May 24, 2009
- Be Wary of Value Based Drafting (must read) - May 22,

So, here we have articles about Bye Weeks, Weather, QB's, Rookies, and looking for breakout players... (more on that one later)

I actually have wondered about the bye week thing in the past. Theory being that if you have 4 or 5 players with the same bye week you are screwed. Well, only for that week. Statistically though, they point out that this does not matter.

The weather strategy I actually found interesting only because I had not thought about it much. But statistically it does affect what players and teams will do well in certain types of weather. You know, if it is being played in really rainy, cold, snowy weather; the run will be called more often than the pass.

The do not draft a QB strategy first strategy is one I actually tend to follow. Theory, 2 quality RB's and or WR, and or combination thereof's, is more valuable than one QB. Statistically this works. The only time I might even consider the 1 QB path is if I felt all the good RB's and WR were gone and I had the last pick of the first round. But, generally I do not go with the 1 QB strategy.

Rookies and Breakout players. Well, Mr. Peterson effectively ruined this strategy for many of us. Now most people are eyeing rookie RB's. I was incredibly fortunate to draft him in the 5th round when he was a rookie. Also, people who are in the last year of their contracts and will become free agents, have all the reason in the world to WOW the world, team owners and their agents. So are rookies and breakout players worth a look? Absolutely, but not in the first rounds.

Then From:






I found more articles of the same, but they actually had a good listing of who all these "breakout" contract year players. Pretty neat.

The only thing about this is that chances are if these breakout players do not have a quality line or people to support them; it makes it infinitely more difficult to actually have a breakout year. These people who fail to excel in their breakout year run the risk of being cut, so I would watch next year to see where they go. If they end up in a better organization or system, then they will probably have their breakout year.

I also found a really good article on playing the waiver wire. Here you look for opportunity. Opportunity for a player to excel because another (starter) has gotten benched, injured, or on bye week.

But perhaps the most important advise, strategy, that I found so far was this:

Know the Rules!

- Are you in an IDP or defensive league?
- Are QB's overly penalized or rewarded point/yardage/touchdown wise?
- Are RB's overly penalized or rewarded point/yardage/touchdown wise?
- Are there points for return yards/touchdowns?
- Are there points for interceptions, fumbles, tackles, completions, attempts...

The list goes on and on.

Just like there are people who will overlook rookies and potential breakout players, there are people who will overlook reading the rules.

And, I will throw out one more strategy that I use. It is by no means totally accurate and like the others is sometimes difficult to judge, but it also something to keep in mind as the year progresses and you use the waiver wire.

And this theory/strategy is: Looking for players on teams who will be fighting to make the playoffs.

Here is why. When is the Fantasy league playoffs and championship? Usually during the last 3 - 4 weeks of the season. Teams with locks on the playoffs, or top spots, often will "coast" into the postseason so as not to risk injury to key players. Where as teams that are fighting to make the playoffs or get one up on a rival team will be playing all out to win and score points.

So, there you have it.

From me - Mr. FumbledReturns

- Know the Rules
- Don't put all your eggs in one basket
- Look for opportunity
- Keep an eye on the end game

And most importantly - Have Fun!

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