Coal Play

Coal is:
- the largest source of energy for the generation of electricity worldwide.
- the largest worldwide source of carbon dioxide emissions.
- a major contributor to environmental destruction and it’s by products from production can be hazardous to both people and the environment.

- A good stock play.

Why?
- One, it is relatively inexpensive to mine.
- Two, developing countries, usually strapped with cash and investment capital, need it to generate electricity and further develop and sustain their economy.

Today, one of the biggest players in the coal market is China. The United States and former Soviet Union have the largest reserves, followed by China and Asia and associated Oceana areas.

This sets up a few very interesting plays on coal.

- One is obviously the demand for Coal through out the world and the increasing demand for it in China and the rest of developing Asia. This would mean taking a look at some of the major Coal producing and selling companies.

- Secondly, since Coal is in such demand and yet has obvious environmental impacts, the business of making Coal production ‘Greener’ should also see increased demand.

- Third and last but not least is the obvious transport of said Coal around the world.

According to Peabody Energy, "Coal's best days are ahead," fueled in part by exports of coal from the Powder River Basin in Montana and Wyoming that Portland General Electric taps for its Boardman plant. Peabody has also been looking to establish a new West Coast terminal to aid in expanding exports.

Among the better Coal energy stocks to look at are:

Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU)
Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP)
Puda Coal Inc. (PUDA)
Arch Coal Inc. (ACI)

Another interesting play on coal, mining and the natural resource field of investments in the Asia and South Pacific region is:

BHP Billiton Limited (BHP)

This diversified natural resource company in Australia has been particularly impacted, as have many Australia Companies, by the recent floods and in my mind is presenting an opportunity to buy in at a discounted price.

Since Coal production is so prevalent and in such good demand, it also stands to reason that finding new and better ‘Greener’ ways to produce it would also be in demand. One such stock popped up on my January watch lists.

Sino Clean Energy Inc (SCEI).

If you are looking for more diversification, perhaps less risk and exposure to potential alternative and clean energy plays within the Coal industry you can look at investing in an ETF such as (KOL).

As I mentioned before, obtaining the coal to sell to the world is one play. The other is transporting it around the world. In order to do this you need a fleet of cargo ships.

Some of the stocks and ETF that come to mind for this are:

DryShips, Inc. (DRYS)
Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (SEA)


Disclaimer: Currently invested in SCEI.

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A New Year and a New Watch List !

Every single one of my Starting Lineup has seen some fall off either from recent highs or falling out of favor. All I believe represent an opportunity to buy in before the stock either breaks back out or continues its upward momentum.








Starting Lineup
CNU Continucare Corp.
CRIC China Real Estate Information Corp
INTC Intel Corp
MCD McDonald's Corp
MRVL Marvell Technology Group Ltd
NEP China North East
NEWN New Energy Systems Group
NPD China Nepstar Chain Drugstore Ltd
RDA RDA MICROELECTRONICS, INC.
SCEI Sino Clean Energy Inc


Each stock on my Bench represents either a slightly riskier play due to playing momentum or the stock is currently stuck or still out of favor. A still out of favor stock would be CSCO which has been totally beating up by a bad quarterly report and forecast. Du Pont, on the other hand is such a big conglomerate that it represents a good play for both a recovering world economy and exposure to some more innovative developments such as solar power shingles which do not require any other special installation. Others such as Walgreens were on my previous starting lineup and I believe still have good potential, but I am making room for some new upstarts on my starting lineup.

Bench
ADES ADA-ES Inc
CSCO Cisco Systems Inc
DD E I Du Pont De Nemours And Company
GFRE Gulf Resources Inc
HRBN Harbin Electric Inc
MSFT Microsoft Corp
PZG Paramount Gold and Silver Corp
SPPI Spectrum Pharmaceuticals Incorporated
UTA Universal Travel
WAG Walgreen Co

My practice squad is basically all the other stocks which made it through my screens and filters that still represent interesting yet even riskier plays. They too are worth a look as investment opportunities, but I feel safer watching for either a better buy in price or I don’t trust the current pattern yet.


Practice Squad
AFOP Alliance Fiber Optic Products Inc
CEPH Cephalon
CIZN Citizens Holding Co
COHN Cohen & Company I
CVU CPI Aerostructures Inc
ESGR Enstar Group Limi
ISSC Innovative Solutions And Support Inc
JASO JA Solar Holdings
NYMX Nymox Pharmaceutical Corporation
PTX Pernix Therapeutics Holdings Inc

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Last but not least

For my December Watch lists I had to sort through a ton of information and finally came up with my 30 stocks.

This month I am including two special requests and observations from outside of my usual screens.

These special appearances fall under the "observation" and "buy what you know category" of investing.

First, Wet Seal (WTSLA) is a teen and young adult fashion retailer that has attracted not only the fashion eye of my teenage daughter and her friends but also the savvy deal shopper eye of my lovely wife.
My daughter an all her friends have this fashion shop on all their Christmas lists, birthday lists, wish lists etc etc.
They also, according to my wife, have frequent sales better than other stores and product at reasonable prices.
This, along with the fact that Wet Seal is generally out of favor with investors and the stock price has been showing recent recovery strength is lending me to trust in this investment.

The other Watch list special is Cracker Barrel (CBRL). When we were traveling Thanksgiving week through six different states, along countless highways, and towns; there were two stores we saw over and over and over again.
One was Dunkin Doughnuts which is literally on nearly every street corner in the North East. But this is a privately owned, franchised, company and does not have publically traded stock.
However, Cracker Barrel seemed almost as prevalent and was definitely busy and from folks I talked to, has a very loyal, almost fanatic, customer following. Their stock has fallen back a bit after reaching a 52 week high point and though it appears slightly pricy still, all other indicators are pointing to a good possible entry point.
So, with that said, I am adding it to my watch list as well.

STARTING LINEUP:

DELL - Dell Inc
This one showed up on my “large and cheap” screen and the price is right with a bounce off of support around the 13 mark.

MFW - M&F Worldwide Corporation
This one was on my “value” screen and could be looking to set up a new good support level for a turn around.

CBRL - Cracker Barrel
See above.

XLNX - Xilinx Inc
This one was on my list last month as was MSFT. Either is worthy of an entry here but XLNX I think has a greater momentum and growth potential.

ASIA - Asiainfo Linkage Inc
This stock is a type of “contrarian” play and looks like it might be setting up for recovery off of 16 - 17 support - look for possible double bottom reversal pattern.

CNIT - China Information Technology, I
After reaching high points In stock price then cooling off signs are pointing to a possible swing back up for this “value” play.

CSKI - China Sky One Medical, Inc.
Another stock worthy of watching. Personally I am looking for a double bottom reversal patter below 6.5 or 7.

WTSLA - Wet Seal
See above.

IGOI - Igo Incorporated
This one is up on higher monthly volume and still seems to have a lots of upside left to it.

TXN - TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC
This is my guilty play because it has me wishing I had gotten in 2 – 3 months ago when it first appeared on my lists.

BENCH:

ASYS - Amtech Systems Inc
I know the solar market has cooled recently but this one works in as a worthy play on solar stocks.

CPWM - Cost Plus Inc
This stock is showing good volume and corporate returns.

EZPW - Ezcorp Inc
This appeared on my lists a while back and still (because of economic conditions) warrants a watch.

NEP - China North East Petroleum Hold
This and the next stock, probably should be on my practice squad but I’ve been wrong before and missed opportunity so I’ve moved them up to the Bench.

ACOM - Ancestry Com Inc
See previous entry . . .

CMFO - China Marine Food Group Limited
This seems to now finally be at a good support level and worth a watch.

CMM - China Mass Media Corp American
This stock showed up on my outperform screens and is showing good momentum for undervalued stock.

FCFC - FirstCity Financial Corporation
Another potential value play.

HOGS - Zhongpin Inc.
A growth stock that I have successfully timed before and now seems to be at an intriguing entry point.

LGL - LGL Group, Inc. Common Stock
Another stock that shows good potential to outperform the market and it’s peers.

PRACTICE SQUAD:

GFRE - Gulf Resources Inc
ONP - Orient Paper Inc
BMY - Bristol Myers Squibb Co
CVI - Cvr Energy Incorporated
HQS - HQ Sustainable Maritime
AMAP - AutoNavi Holdings Ltd
CSFS - The Cash Store Financial Service
FSIN - Fushi Copperweld, Inc.
GILD - GILEAD SCIENCES INC
JNJ - Johnson & Johnson

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In Spirit

Well, as you may be able to tell, I've been pretty silent on the blog lately. But I've been here in spirit.

Just too busy to really write about it.

So lets start with the basics and a little catch up of events, both with sports and stocks.

Sports:

Fantasy wise, I am doing OK. I will most likely make the playoffs in both my Fumbled Returns League of Experts and even in my other Borderless league. There, I am top point winner but currently 3rd out of 12. I think I stand a good chance of getting in but I was really, really hoping to be top in my division so I get that all important 1st round bye. But James has to loose and I have to win this week for me to even have a chance of that happening and I have a tougher match up than he does.

After being the wise old man that I am and drafting handcuffs to Frank Gore (Anthony Dixon) and Chris Johnson (Javon Ringer) in the beginning of the year, I subsequently dumped them when everyone stayed healthy and I needed players during the bye weeks. Now with Gore out for the season, folks are scrambling to get Westbrook. But he is hurting too and Dixon could become a factor yet. I think I will take a gamble and pick him up just in case. In looking at the waiver wire both are amazingly still available. Strangely enough, Byron Westbrook was picked up . . .

Hmmm I wonder if somebody made a silly mistake . . . Yes, (an email confirms it), yes he did ( wow )

A lot of folks around here are talking about the Skins but unfortunately they have performed just about they way I had expected. There were just way too many weak spots to address and way, way too few draft picks to work with. Personally, I think Shanny and Allen have done a really good job with the hand(s) they were dealt with. It will be a few years before we can get back to the glory days.

And speaking of glory days, while in NY over thanksgiving, my father in law had out on the table an anniversary edition of the history of the Giants. What I was really struck with was all the good ol’ shots and stories of football from the days before AstroTurf, over protective / restrictive rules, and domes. This is probably why I enjoy working with and watching youth football so much.

I am putting natural turf, celebration dances, less restrictive player rules on my NFL Christmas Wish List.

Stocks:

My Share builder November list did really well. MOTR was the big winner and, though I did have a few lose money, none were big drops. Overall my investments returned a healthy 6% for November.

I did learn one very important thing about Share Builder and Auto Investment Watch Lists. If you have Sharebuilder set to auto invest, as most accounts will, and you sell a stock that has done really well, like I did with MOTR, move the proceeds out to your regular savings or checking account. Otherwise, whatever stock(s) you have listed in your Auto Invest list will be purchased with said proceeds on your next scheduled Investment Tuesday.

But other than that little bone head ‘gotchya’ moment, I have been very pleased with my experience with Sharebuilder. I just wish it had better research tools to use for building my watch lists. But that is OK, I got that covered elsewhere.

Speaking of watch lists, yes it is December, but I will not be able to get my December list(s) out before this weekend. So stay tuned.

I saw today that ARO took a tumble because of an analysts downgrade. I think people just might be pleasantly surprised by the retail returns this holiday season so this downgrade just might be a good opportunity to get in on the low end of this stock price.

And speaking of buying on the low end, MSFT recently appears to have bounced off of a key support level and is rising back up as is TRLG which is up nearly 14% as of today.

And last but not least, here is a bit of holiday spirit courtesy of my daughters 7th grade band. They have been practicing really hard all year and her music teacher is really one of the best I have ever met. He has a funny little saying which he tells them when he thinks they are not doing well and that is

“you are all playing like 7th graders . . . “

I believe he did not say that during the holiday concert. But you can be the judge.

Oh and this is sports related because, as you can see in the video, there is a basketball hoop and backboard in the background! The holiday concert was obviously held in the acoustically challenged school gym.

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Infringement?

I read a headline that stated Walgreens (WAG) (on my watch lists) is suing Wegmans over the use of their scripted "W".

Walgreens claims the script is too confusing to consumers.

The stylized “W” that Wegmans uses in its logo is too close to the style of the letter Walgreens uses, according to a Walgreens lawsuit filed in Virginia.

Wegmans said they used the logo style decades ago, and resurrected it recently.

“We were surprised to learn of this lawsuit, since Walgreens did not contact us with any concerns prior to filing it,” said Jeanne Colleluori, Wegmans spokeswoman.

“Our script design has been in use since 2008, and was crafted to look like the logos our company used in the 1930s and 1940s. We don’t think that there is any real risk of customer confusion between the two companies.”

OK, so I do see that it is similar but not exact.
In reality, I think the fonts are totally different.

I do see the value in a company protecting it's brand.
And I do see Wegmans arguement that they have used that font before and that, according to them, Walgreens did not even attempt to contact them before filing the suit.

But Wegmans also uses different fonts for their logos as well.

Such as this one...







If I were Wegmans, I wouldn't worry. I do not see the similarity nor do I find these logos the least bit confusing.

What I do find confusing is this!



The Washington Nationals Logo.









If I were the Nationals, I'd be worried.

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Going Orange

We have all heard the phrase Going Green, well this month I’m going Orange.
As in Orange, ING sharebuilder, investment accounts.

I’ve had an ING savings account for several years now and have always known about their sharebuilder investment services but have never decided to take advantage of their services until now.

Why?

Well, two reason really.

First, I already had the bulk of my investments in company sponsored 401K type plans and larger ETF accounts that I rarely traded in or made any changes to more than once or twice a year at most. So the costs of these accounts to me was not very much at all.

Secondly, up until a couple – three years ago, I never really got into individual investing much. Partly because of fees, I thought they were too high and would eat into my profits too much if I ended up doing a lot of trading. And, partly because I didn’t think I could do as well as the professionals.

Well, as it turns out, I was incorrect in my assumptions on both counts.

Shortly before I started this blog, I decided to do something like an “individual investor experiment”.

I thought I had a few really good stock screens and filters to pick potentially good stocks for investments and I was curious about stock patter investing. So I started tracking my watch lists and trying to “hit” certain patterns.

So how have I done?

Over the past couple years, via tracing my individual stock trades with Covestor, I have maintained over 23% return. Though, at times it was much higher (60%) and much, much lower (-40%), overall I think I did OK.

Also, though not independently tracked, my monthly watch lists have done reasonably well too. My 2009 watch lists for instance, have returned, on average, 23% to date and if I factor in stop losses, that average jumps up to 30% return to date.

One of the really cool ideas about Covestor is that any member can track his or her funds, share the results and ideas with the rest of the Community and even the world, and even set up a model portfolio for others to follow and invest with. If they do, you could be paid, somewhat like a broker, for this.

Well, trading in one or two stocks a month does not a portfolio make.
And in order to open a model portfolio and participate in the program you have to actively invest in said model at least $10K.

For my “individual investor experiment” I did invest my own money, obviously, but I started with an amount that I felt was enough to offset fees of a couple trades a month, yet if I lost it all, I would not be crushed or put myself, and my family in financial Armageddon. Needless to say, this $10K amount is much more than I risked or currently “play with” as an individual trader.

Over the course of this blog, I have been using Firstrade as my brokerage for individual trades. They do not really have a minimum amount for maintaining or opening an account, nor are their fees really really high. They charge $6.95 a trade.

I have been pleased with their services and site and would recommend them to anybody who asks. BTW, Scottrade is the other online brokerage I have used before and they are equally as good as Firstrade.

However, at $7 a trade, if I traded my starting lineup watch lists each month that would be $140 dollars a month (buy and sell) in fees and nearly $1700 a year! For my experiment of playing individual investor trading, that was and still is prohibitively expensive and TOTALLY out of the question.

BTW, even for a $10K investment portfolio, $1700 in yearly fees is also totally out of the question too!

So, what to do?

I realized that what I really wanted to do was independently have my watch lists tracked and maybe some day be at a point to open a model portfolio on a site such as Covestor.

This would require me to actively invest in my watch lists. And to find an economical way to do so.

ING rates are some of the best in the industry. One reason why their best rates are so good is because to take advantage of them, you can only trade when they do their “bulk” sharebuilder trading on Tuesdays. When I first started trading I came up with a watch list of stocks based on my screens and out of those look for trends and or patterns to invest in.

I felt in order to fully take advantage of trends and stock movements, the only on Tuesdays would be a bit limiting. And for the most part, this is true. However, now that I have over 2 years of data go research I come up with a several insights.
One, I have averaged nearly 2 stock trades a month. That is 4 x 7 = $28 in fees.

That translates into $336 minimum in fees per year.

Guess what? Based on my returns, that is still too high.

Two is that though the only on Tuesdays does not work for really short term quick hype hits or trends, but over the course of the year, it would really does not negatively impact my overall returns.

Three, I have noticed that there are some stocks which consistently or at the very least regularly show up on my screens and or watch lists. Sometime they are always there, sometime the drop off only to show up again a few months later.
Four, as I pointed out before, my watch lists over time are just as if not more effective as my individual pattern investing of one or two stocks a month.

So, I have taken the plunge with Sharebuilder and will be using them to invest in and track my watch list investments.

What I like:

Cost – Sharebuilder has an “Advantage Plan” that charges a $12 monthly fee and gives you 12 free trades per month.

Ease of use - Everything was easy to set up (I use my Orange savings account to transfer money free of charge) and the layout is easy to navigate and understand.

Good Reports – You can lookup a stock and view a rather good report that gives all the basic information that one would look for when researching a company and it’s stock. (available only through the Advantage program)

Range of available Investments - stocks, bonds, ETF’s, Funds. Basically anything an average or new investor would want.

Good for New Investors - you can invest as much or as little as you want on any Tuesday you want. They even have a questionnaire for, first timers, that you can go through which gives you different portfolio suggestions based on your answers and "what if" analysis on stocks had you invested in them over a given time period.

What I don’t like:

Their screens and research tools. Though I have to say that there is one which you can screen for recommended stocks based on industry investment grades (A – E). This is similar to MSN Money’s top stocks screener which does give good suggestions.

So, I have set up a Sharebuilder Advantage account.

For 12 dollars a month, I get 12 free trades per month. After that it is $1 a trade. That means for $120 dollars a year (much less than my current $330 or theoretical $1700) I can trade and track a 10 stock portfolio made up from my watch lists. There are no minimum account limits, inactivity fees and because they pool all the trades and monies into Tuesday Trades you are not limited by the cost of the stock either. What I mean by that is one could invest say $50 in a stock. If the stock is $100 a share you get ½ and share. You can’t do this with normal brokers.

I will be maintaining a 10 – 12 stock portfolio based on my watch lists and make my trades on the 1st Tuesday of each month.

I have submitted my change in brokers to Covestor, so once they sync the accounts, they will be tracking my performance.

This month I picked 7 stocks from my starting lineup and 3 from my bench.
















Not bad for 4 days worth of trading! Between the elections (the stock market loves Republicans) and some favorable quarterly reports, the Federal Reserve buying actions and a good jobs report, this has been a really good week for most everybody.

We’ll see how I do for the next 12 months and beyond.

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New Plays

This month, as usual, I have quite a variety of stocks on my watch lists.

Some have been on these before, and in fact a couple are very familier names.

Some are pure Momentum Plays such as:




MIPS
MOTR
SIGA
ASTI
TWER


Some are pure Down and Out Plays due for a rebound:





ARO
TRLG
INTC
HRB
LINC


And others are just reporting improved results and greener pastures such as:





MSFT
ADI
EBAY
RTN
COH


And, I even have a Setup (of sorts):





UTX - But you have to look at it over the range of several years...


So without further delay...

STARTING LINEUP

MSFT - Microsoft Corp
ADI - Analog Devices Inc
ARO - Aeropostale Inc
EBAY - eBay Inc
LINC - Lincoln Educational Services Corp
PLD - PROLOGIS
RTN - Raytheon Company
TRLG - True Religion Apparel Inc
TSRA - Tessera Technologies Inc
WAG - Walgreen Company

BENCH

XLNX - Xilinx Inc
CAH - Cardinal Health Inc
COH - COACH INC
FCX - FREEPORT MCMORAN COPPER & GOLD INC
IBM - INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP
MIPS - Mips Technologies Incorporated
MOTR - Motricity Inc
SIGA - SIGA Technologies Inc
TXN - TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC
UTX - United Technologies Corp

PRACTICE SQUAD

HRB - H&R Block Inc
INTC - Intel Corporation
ASTI - Ascent Solar Technologies Inc
ESIC - Easylink Services International Corp
GPN - Global Payments Inc
HRBN - Harbin Electric Inc
MDT - MEDTRONIC INC
QTM - Quantum Corporation
SDTH - ShengdaTech Inc
TWER -Towerstream Corp

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Trick or Treat

Hope everyone is having / had a good Halloween!
















These two pumpkins are kind of special in that thanks to our good friend Debbie, who provide our youngest son a present of Pumpkin Seeds for his birthday, enabled us to try growing pumpkins for the first time this year. We grew 4 pumpkins, 1 rotted before we picked it, 1 was eaten by the deer, and these two were home grown and carved just for Halloween Night.

Though tricky, the month of October proved mostly a treat stock wise.

Starting lineup returned 5% for month of October lead by:

HOGS: 15%
They engage in the processing and distribution of meat and food products primarily in China. They experienced a good run starting in mid September and continued through the first half of October. Since then it has hit top end resistance (twice) and appears to be cooling back down.

VHC: 22%
Makes their living off of suing other companies for patent infringement. They won against Microsoft earlier this year and using that case as precedence have set their sights on other companies such as Apple, Cisco, and NEC. I think they are still worth watching for further developments with these law suites.

TPI: 10%
engages in the development, manufacture, marketing, and sale of modernized traditional Chinese medicines and other pharmaceuticals in China. After reporting good profits and outlook in September the stock went on a nice run but has since cooled off a bit and is probably again worth watching for another entry point especially if it dips below $3 a share.

My Bench lineup once again outperformed my starting lineup returning 6%. Lots of really good winners in this bunch, including:

QUIK: 17%
TNDM: 14%
ASIA: 12%
GILD: 10%

All of these are still worthy of watching but GILD seems to be setting up a nice resistance line and could be looking to push further upwards for another breakout.

My Practice squad had a return of just under 1% and showed exactly why speculative buyouts are so risky.

It correctly picked:

GYMB: 30% which was bought out.

And completely missed on:

SVNT: -45% who announced they did not successfully find a buyer.

As for me, I had nearly a 7% return thanks in part to HOGS. I hedged my bet on them and was barely up on my other picks. I can’t complain, 7% is pretty good for a monthly return but I coulda woulda shoulda done better.

But at least I beat the averages!

DOW: 3%
NASDAQ: 5%

Stay tuned for my November watch list!

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The Setup

This blog is about sports and stocks.
The one thing that really gets me going with this blog more than talking sports and fantasy football is stock pattern investing.

One of my watch list stocks (HOGS) had some really great setups over this past week.


















I first took notice of this stock as it made its initial break out and was forming a new resistance level close to $18. The first pattern is an ascending triangle patter that shows a rising strength pattern of continuously lows ascending to a common point of resistance. As it reached the breakout point, a good rise in volume (the lower bar graph) provided good momentum to sustain the upward trend.

The stock then leveled off around $20 and showed a good "resting" pattern and never really dipped below the $20 support level. The only question was, what would it do next?

















Well, towards the end of the day on Wednesday, the stock showed yet again an increase in volume and momentum and broke above the $20.50 resistance level. This upward pattern continued into an amazing 3 tier or (step) pattern. When this happens, and it does not always work out, but when it does a sudden spike upward in price happens after the 3rd tier. Almost always followed by a pull back down until a new support level is reached. In this case, at least for Thursday, it appeared to be around $21.00.

The pattern was actually looking like it would form either a "W" pattern or double bottom pattern, and I was actually a little worried that it did dip below $21 momentarily. But, the stock recovered nicely and as is characteristic of a possible new break out experienced a sudden spike in activity at the end of the day and burst up to $22.00 for a brief moment before the close of the market and a final daily close just below $21.50.

It will be really interesting to see what it does next. Will it continue it's rise to form yet another ascending triangle patter and potentially yet another larger 3rd tier pattern?

Or will it cool off for a while before testing new levels of resistance and support?

Of course I will watch this stock for the rest of the month, but for now I am really psyched that all these patterns happened and that my investment ideas worked as well as they did.

See, I place a buy limit order for when HOGS reached $18.00 per share and then a sell limit order of $21.60 for a nice 20% gain.

Not bad for a weeks worth of investing.

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Can't Complain

For the month of September, my investments returned a healthy 16.59%.
My Starting Lineup returned about 5%
My Bench returned about 8%
and my Practice Squad about 5.5%

So, how did I get the 16.59%? Well, I invested in the big September watch list winner VHC which returned a whopping 70%!

VHC is yet again on my October Watch List simply because it has not shown any signs of weakness yet.

When reviewing my candidates for the October Watch lists, I am once again going to go with the three team / squad approach. This time the practice squad is made up of high risk plays and stocks that have been subject to merger mania.

Starting Lineup:

WWIN : has shown a big pop in volume and recently upgraded by analysts
COCO : is on the rebound after hitting lows and is once again on the list
HOGS : is currently showing good strength and upswing in price
JGBO : could be setting up for a good W pattern if it holds support
NSM : this stock is currently at a decent entry point
SNDK : another stock looking for a good rebound and showing good potential
SNTA : expanding drug trials and research and showing good promise for profit
TPI : recently reported record results and stock is on the rebound
TXN : a big supply winner for all the great Apple i-products out there
VHC : 70% in one month is impressive and no real signs of slowing down - yet

Bench:

FCX : looks like a stock that wants to finish out a strong cup and handle pattern
GILD : this just finished a good W pattern and is hitting top end resistance - watch
TNDM : a decent well run company with recent momentum which has crossed over its 50 day moving average
ASIA : a telecom company which good growth potential with good insider buying
INTC : the chip sector and this company has shown good upswing lately
NEU : showing good momentum and worth watching
NSR : is currently in top end of cup and handle pattern
ONCY : has been showing good strength and momentum and is now showing signs of cooling off - worth a watch
QUIK : another stock showing good potential and worth a watch
GFRE : with a recent announcement of stock buy back and bounce off of lows this stock is showing good recovery

Practice Squad :

AVEO : has regained rights to drugs and patents and has shown really good momentum that it just can not maintain
NPD : very risky spiked movement upwards now without a lot of good support
CRIC : a high flyer in the Chinese real estate sector - can anybody say bubble watch?
CRXL : J&J announced they are planning to buy them out but it is not a done deal yet
GYMB : is considering selling to a private firm, but like CRXL nothing is in writing yet
HNR : another rumored buyout / take-over bid
HYC : entering a hostile take-over bid and potential escalation
OCNW : another potential for a bidding war on this one but not 100% likely
SHG : is showing really strange action for no apparent reason - something might be immanently announced
SVNT : this one is riding the hype wagon, I just do not see why

Oh, and BTW, as of this writing, it looks like both my fantasy football teams are going to finish this week at 3 -1 and at least tied for 1st place.

But more on that later.

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A New Trading List

This month I am trying something a bit new with my watch lists.

As a result of my various stock screens, I usually end up with anywhere between 40 and 80 potential stocks each month. From this list I can usually go through and pick out the final twenty that I want to have on my starting lineup and bench lists.

Well this month I had a real hard time deciding on my bench so I took an idea out of the NFL rule book and added a Practice Squad.

This month there is a diverse list of potential stocks to choose from ranging from Pink Slips to Large mega-billion dollar companies, from bio-pharms to retail to tech to industrials.

Each has different reasons to consider buying.

Starting lineup

MSFT Microsoft Corp
- Always a good buy when low and with a natural, but economic delayed, refresh cycle coming up of all their corporate OS and Apps is looking especially attractive.

DELL Dell Inc
- A beaten down tech company trying to rebuild and just might be turning the corning in time to catch an uptick in spending.

BKE Buckle, Inc. (The)
- There are a couple retailers on my lists and this is one which was just recently upgraded and showing good momentum.

FUQI Fuqi International, Inc.
- This company has always made it through my filters and screens and I usually do not pick it because of personal choice to avoid gold and precious metal stocks. However this one is now in a good potential reversal “W” pattern and officially meets one of the Fumbled Returns stock picking strategies. So here it is making its grand debut.

GFRE Gulf Resources, Inc.
- This one appears to be in a good horizontal trading pattern which would be good for those of you who like to buy and sell on the dips and peaks. Buy below 8.5 and sell close to or above 9.5

HITK Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co., Inc.
- This is a risky play because they are reporting Wednesday and definitely has the potential to not surprise analysts. However, it does appear to be in the bottom part of a cup and handle pattern and is worth a watch for a reversal trend upwards.

LLY ELI LILLY & CO
- Another possible “cup” pattern with a little upside potential with a big name brand Pharm company.

JKS JinkoSolar Holding Co Ltd
- This, as well as the following two, show really good strength and momentum in price, volume and ownership.

NNBR NN Inc

AMRN Amarin Corp Plc


Bench

VHC VirnetX Holding Corp
- Recent patent lawsuit settlement and rumors of possible buyouts has fueled the stock. Patents are always a good thing and larger cash rich companies could view buying them out as a cheaper alternative to legal fees and settlement charges.

ARO Aeropostale Inc
- Another well known and liked (I have teenagers) name brand always well positioned to not only ride out a bad economy but to also recover well once spending has started. And just in case you have not noticed, school is back in session and teenagers never want to show up in last years fashions.

ASYS Amtech Systems Inc
- This is another company with monthly volume and ownership rising.

BPI Bridgepoint Education, Inc.
- The Feds just released a report which showed which “for profit” educational companies could meet their financial reform guidelines. Only four came through with flying colors. This is one of them and its stock is on the rise.

BZ Boise Inc Boise Inc.
- This company does not specifically meet any pattern or trend rule of mine but rather a good growth prospect at a good value.

COH COACH INC
- Another good retail company that refuses to lose money even during a recession. And investors are rewarding them.

EBAY eBay Inc
- Another first for me listing. This stock is down but the company certainly is not out. With the economy being bad and school, holidays and par, folks are looking for bargains, and

HRS Harris
- A federal contractor whose stock also seems to be in a possible “w” reversal pattern.

INTC INTEL CORP
- This is another company not in any particular pattern but definitely well positioned to benefit from any uptick in tech spending. Good growth potential at a good price value.

MRVL Marvell Technology Group Ltd
- It has been a while since this company has made the list and it has bounced up nicely recently and is now in a potential breakout pattern pushing up against a resistance level.


Practice Squad

TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC
- A good retail tech company which happens to be at a peak instead of a low. Look to buy at 23.

ISH International Shipholding Corp
- Another potential good growth prospect at a value.

NSR NeuStar Inc
- Good contrarian market play potential here with a well run company

POWL Powell Industries, Inc.
- Growth and Value

PPG PPG Industries Inc
- A large long term investment – not really a great fit for my fumbled criteria.

PTEC Phoenix Technologies Ltd
- This is a company that was bought up – or at least accepted an offer. Usually I write these off the list but recent rumors and interest from other potential buyers may fuel a bidding war.

SCL Stepan Company
- Another growth for value play with a good company

SNDK SanDisk Corp
- This was on a previous list and now makes an interesting contrarian play with a good well run company.

AVARF Avalon Rare Metals Inc
- I usually avoid pink slip stocks but this and the following one are showing really good strength and momentum with up-ticks in ownership and volume.

FRMSF First Majestic Silver Corp

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Stock Watch

OK, so I lost a little ground to the standard averages this past month.

July Starting Linup = 4%
July Bench = 2%

DOW = 7%
NASDAQ = 7%




But for the year to date, I am still ahead about 13%. Though good, its not nearly as much as I would like.

So lets see how well I do with my August Watch Lists.

August Starting Lineup Watch List

CSKI - China Sky One Medical Inc
AFAM - Almost Family Inc
CEU - China Education Alliance Inc
CMFO - China Marine Food Group Ltd
GFRE - Gulf Resources Inc
MFW - M & F Worldwide Corp.
CAST - ChinaCast Education Corp
CECO - Career Education Corp
JGBO - Jiangbo Pharmaceuticals Inc
KWR - Quaker Chemical Corp

August Bench Watch List

MSFT - MICROSOFT CORP
SIHI - SinoHub Inc
TJX - TJX COS INC
UIS - Unisys Corp
UTA - Universal Travel Group
XLNX - Xilinx Inc
ARNA - Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc
IDSA - Industrial Services of America Inc
MDF - Metropolitan Health Networks
VSEC - VSE Corp

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Due this week

So it is now reporting season once again and there are quite a few of my stocks from this months watch list reporting just this week alone.

ClickSoftware CKSW
Upgraded to market outperform on July 14th and reports before market open July 21.
Last quarterly reported 34% growth and no debt.


Capital One COF
Reports July 22.
One of the better indicators of the "wellness" or lack there of is this stock. No so much in its profit but the number of loan defaults and balance rates of card holders.


Microsoft MSFT
Reports July 22
With IBM missing on sales and revenue but upping forecast it will be interesting to see if Micosoft registers a gain in earnings and stock price. With new upgrades to Office and Windows 7 and anticipated corporate renewals this stock is at a very attractive price but may not yet be seeing the anticipated returns on all its new product releases.


Sandisk SNDK
Reports July 22.
Upgraded by UBS to Buy on July 12.
Low debt ratio and solid quarterly earnings. For a while it was speculated that Sandisk would be supplying iPhones but the are not. Regardless, there is an industry shortage of Flash devices due to the popularity of all smart phones, music/video devices, and cameras.


Apple AAPL
Reports July 20th.
So, what do you make of Apple? Reports record sales of multiple new products. Design flaw with their antenna. And somewhat arrogant and sloppy PR handling of the press and public opinion and reviews.
Remember, to be #1, you don’t have to be perfect, you don’t have to be the best, you just have to be better than everyone else.
I just wish Steve and Apple didn’t pull a BP with their press conference and call everyone else the little people for blowing this way out of proportion and not understanding everything that goes into a smart phone.

BTW did anybody catch the ballsy antenna song that apple aired prior to their conference?

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The Big Thaw

June was the warmest June in recorded history for Washington DC.

We had 18 days of 90+ degrees
The next three days of July are expected to reach 100.

All this warm weather make me wish we had Snowmagedon again.

Back in the cold old days (December 2009 - March 2010) we had record snow falls and record cold temperatures.

Between November 1, 2009 and May 1, 2010 the DOW rose nearly 15% from about 9700 to over 11,300.

Like the record heat and the memories of all that wonderful snow, all the profits we experienced during this brief recovery have melted away.

The DOW now sits at 9686.

Bye Bye Snow

Bye Bye Profits.








Two months ago I was worried that so much of the market was at 52 week highs and all the bail out and incentives for economic growth were expiring that we were due for a correction.

Now, along with all that, and a record oil spill, folks are talking about a double dip recession.

And I am still worried, not because of the abnormal record highs, but because now so much of the market is either at, or approaching, critical low support levels; that if they do not hold, we will be dipping back into a recessionary pattern.

If some of the stocks on my July watch list pan out, and the support levels hold, we could see a short term rebound. If not, well then the thaw continues and we are indeed in store for a rough ride.

Hmmm, just in case you did not notice, I just said that I was either going to make money or lose money in the stock market... Profound wisdom if I do say so myself...

So, with that said, here is my July watch list with a new, and still evolving format, (I've decided to list the Stock along with a short reason why to buy it and one reason why not to buy it )to help folks decide the pros and cons to investing in any of these ideas.

STARTING LINEUP:

MDF - Metropolitan Health Networks
Why Buy? High inside ownership, Good Cash Flow, profitable, good return on assets, Maintaining valuation in down market.
Why Not? Still within 20% of 52 week high, Uncertainty in Healthcare field and increased risk with all the new regulations.
Reports August 2nd.

NBIX - Neurocrine Biosciences Inc
Why Buy? Still maintaining good money flow and relative strength. recently entered a deal with Abbott, which paid Neurocrine $75 million upfront, with the potential for another $500 million plus royalties still to come.
Why Not? May be cooling off of recent momentum swing and like any pharm company, their pipeline is always a gamble as to whether or not the product ever gets to market.
Reports August 2nd.

CKSW - ClickSoftware Technologies Ltd.
Why Buy? Money flow and Relative Strength are increasing, may be setting up into a reversal (double bottom or W) pattern after falling over 25%. A well run, profitable, not debt company.
Why Not? Pattern may not hold up and needs to be watched. Reasons for drop include economic crisis in Europe which accounts for a large portion of their revenue and two counter intuitive prospectus filings which worried many investors.
Reports July 15th.

CNU - Continucare Corp.
Why Buy? Near low support level of 3.4 – 3.5. No Debt. High inside ownership. Not under federal investigation.
Why Not? Federal investigations into other providers in the industry has driven all stock prices lower and may spook investors. May not bounce off of support levels due to selling pressures.
Reports September 6th.

COF - Capital One Financial Corp.
Why Buy? OK, how many of you said “what’s in your wallet”. Name Recognition. Federal Bail out. May be setting up a “w” pattern with buy in support near 38.
Why Not? Economy, debt and defaults are still a problem. Money flow, relative strength and trend lines are decreasing. The “w” pattern may not pan out and may actually be the signal of a reversal pattern. So this requires a close watch. Goal would to be buy at 38 and sell around 42.
Reports July 22nd.

DD - Du Pont
Why Buy? This is actually a good recovery stock to invest in over the long term – because the recovery will be long and choppy. Pays good dividends. Look for this stock to bounce off of a double support level close to 34.
Why Not? Market uncertainty and “double dip” recession will affect this global company and the 34 support level may not hold. Money flow and strength trending lower.
Reports July 27th.

IDCC - InterDigital, Inc.
Why Buy? wireless technology and patent company expanding overseas market which is one of the larger segments of this line of business. Currently at low support levels.
Why Not? Still under selling pressure with money flow and relative strength weakening.
Reports July 26th.

IPXL - Impax Laboratories Inc
Why Buy? Great generic drug manufacturer and distributor with opportunity to expand generic pipeline and nearing attractive price point between 17 and 18. No debt.
Why Not? Competition, patent infringement law suits, and current eroding of money flow and relative strength make this a gamble.
Reports August 2nd.

RGR - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.
Why Buy? This took off for a 40% run the last time I put it on my watch list in March and has since fallen back off of its peak. Deserves a watch to see what happens price wise between 12 – 14. Recent economic downturn and favorable court ruling make this worth another entry on to the watch list. Profitable and no debt company.
Why Not? Although it is approaching another support point, trend lines have not completely stopped their downward movement off of the high points. The 12 support level is critical and is still more than 10% difference.
Reports July 26th.

SCL - Stepan Company
Why Buy? Well run specialty chemical company making investments world wide to expand capability and efficiency of delivery to a global market.
Why Not? Payoffs to these investments are at least a year away and current economic issues weigh, like other stocks, on the price of this investment opportunity.
Reports July 26th.

BENCH:

CEU - China Education Alliance, Inc.
Why Buy? at critical low support level (triple bottom pattern with not a lot of upward momentum support) - risky play to bet going back up but worth a watch. No debt, high profit margins, and inside investors.
Why Not? The Motley Fool has articles posted galore about this stock.. ;-) . Seriously though, this is an out of favor industry lately and they do face a fair amount of competition over seas.

CMFO - China Marine Food Group Limited
Why Buy? has been falling lately but an uptic in money flow and ownership might indicate the beginnings of an upswing - watch
Why Not? There have been rumors and accusations regarding fraud with this company however the fact of the matter is that many of their actions are concerned with “empire” building and stock price rather than building up tangible value in the company. This may all pan out in the future but for now this is purely a short term bet.

GFRE - Gulf Resources Inc
Why Buy? at a low support level - look to see if it drops closer to 8 - recent article about china investing in oil reserves to help support growing economy - may be time to buy into this. No Debt, high insider investment, high rate of return on capital and assets.
Why Not? In addition to the low support level, the stock has also failed to break top resistance either and this might be a sign of continued weakness.
Reports August 9th.

ABC - AmerisourceBergen Corp
Why Buy? A financial management company in an out of favor industry that has a good dividend yield an good profit margins and is nearing a historical low point. Definitely one worth watching in my book. This falls into my ideal contrarian mold.
Why Not? A fair amount of debt, lower than ideal profit margins and low insider investing.
Reports July 26th.

AMGN - AMGEN INCWhy Buy? A big, I mean really big pharm company at a low support level with a good pipeline of prospects makes this a stock worth putting on the watch list.
Why Not? As with any pharm company, not everything in the pipeline will succeed nor is it immune from competition and patent infringement lawsuits.
Reports July 29th.

BBY - BEST BUY CO INC
Why Buy? If an economic recovery kicks in, this is a great stock to have. It is currently at low support levels and looking as an attractive buy.
Why Not? Well, if nobody gets jobs, then the economy will stall, and people will not buy stuff from Best Buy. Carries a fair amount of debt which could also put it at risk.
Reports September 14th.

CEPH - Cephalon, Inc.
Why Buy? Just like AMGN - good returns, pipeline, expanded research and all time support low
Why Not? It has been mired in lawsuits and patent infringement cases throughout it’s history.
Reports July 27th.

CRVP - Crystal Rock Holdings, Inc.
Why Buy? Well, penny stocks so rarely make my lists that I just had to take a closer look at this one. For a penny stock they have decent numbers and are at the bottom of a well established trading range.
Why Not? I do not see any long term expansion plans, or new marketing plans. Therefore not huge amounts of growth. However, they could be bought out by a large cap competitor but this is the equivalent of winning the lottery.
Reports September 13th.

MSFT - MICROSOFT CORP
Why Buy? The stock is approaching an attractive buy in price and they have recently entered into a new product upgrade cycle with Windows 7, which has good reviews, and Office 2010. Business will upgrade to these new and improved products.
Why Not? Though attractive price it has not reached a support level nor is there any guarantee exactly when business will feel compelled to spend the money on upgrades. This is obviously dependent on the economic recovery.
Reports July 22nd.

SNDK - SanDisk Corp
Why Buy? Approaching good support and buy in price of 40 with anticipated future demand for chips in the Tech market a buy for this stock.
Why Not? Tech stocks are particularly susceptible to market and economic sentiment, especially bad economic news.

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June Stock Update

OK, I'll admit it. It has been a terrible stretch for stocks the past several weeks and many a portfolio has suffered... Including mine.

But a couple stocks on my watch lists are on the move.

NBIX - Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. +34% for the month

Has announced two major world wide collaborations with other drug makers and distributors.

UPI - Uroplasty, Inc. +20% for the month

Has announced that they are on the preliminary list for the Russell Microcap Index due out June 15th. This will really help gain exposure to this small volume stock play.

AAPL - Apple. +9% in one week.

An old favorite and former watch list stock Apple has recently started presales launch of their new iPhone4, which was in such great demand that they and AT&T had to halt pre-release sales and postpone the delivery date. Nothing drives up a stock price more than overwhelming demand for a new product. Especially one that even isn't out on the market yet.

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Halfway

We are now officially half way through the year. Can you believe it is already June! And in the world of Fumbled Returns, that means a quick review of my resolutions.

Debt reduction plan is progressing but slower than I had anticipated but progress is progress so I am going to count it at least a partial success. Though, something tells me that I may not be doing so well in the very near future. I’ll save that for a possible future post. Hopefully not but , oh never mind.

On with the rest of my resolutions.

I picked up 4 out of my 5 new followers thanks to some creative blogging over at life with dogs, aka blog hops. Welcome aboard. This brings my total up to 16. I only need 4 more to reach my goal for the year!

I Have not quite re-started up my borderless fantasy football league yet so I cannot count any success towards that goal, YET.

And if anybody wants to help contribute to some content in this blog and join my Fumbled Returns Fantasy Football league, just send me an email and I’ll send you an invite. You could win the league and be a guest blogger all at the same time!

Despite a horribly terrible month of May, Starting Lineup -9.5% Bench -8.5% (I should have followed my own advice and cashed out) my investments are doing OK over all.
It still pains me a little to think that I had already passed my yearly goal in April, only to fall behind in only one month. But hey, I have the rest of the year to make up for lost ground. At least I am still way ahead of all the indexes.

My other endeavors have really fallen by the way side and I am just about to throw in the towel on those so it looks like at least one of my goals will not have a big ol’ smiley face next to it at the end of the year.

So that leaves me with my monthly picks for the month of June. (Drum roll please . . .)

STARTING LINEUP

IPXL - Impax Laboratories Inc
MDF - Metropolitan Health Networks Inc
SYNT - Syntel Inc
BTN - Ballantyne Strong Inc
CAST - ChinaCast Education Corp
DECK - Deckers Outdoor Corp
GYMB - Gymboree Corp
MFW - M&F WORLDWIDE
SPRD - Spreadtrum Communications Inc
MAT - Mattel Inc

BENCH

CECO - Career Education Corp
CSKI - China Sky One Medical Inc
NEU - NewMarket Corp
NBIX - Neurocrine Biosciences Inc
UPI - Uroplasty Inc
GPS - GAP INC
MSFT - Microsoft Corp
CCMO - CC Media Holdings Inc
HRL - Hormel Foods Corp
LLL - L-3 Communications Holdings Inc

Hopefully my June investment will do better than my May investments.

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My new look...

Sort of.

OK so there is justice after all. Remember how I said I hated last Friday and all the crazy selling then buying that went on with my stock POZN? And how after hours trading was up 20%...

Well by the time Monday morning rolled around that 20% was back down to a 10% gain and by the time all was said and done by 4:00pm Monday...

A 4% loss!!!

Anyway, I'm over that now and moving on to my May watch lists and minor revisions to my blog.

I am now attempting to keep track of my goals on the right side lines as well as links to my "Charting Success" web site.

I don't know about the rest of you but I happen to like keeping track of stuff like goals and objectives and milestones out where I can see them, and in this case, where everyone else can see them too!

My May Watch Lists have a new interesting twist to them. This time around, all of my starting lineup picks are reporting quarterly results this month.

Some people say that one should avoid trading during a stocks reporting season or time since reports and stock prices are based upon speculation and expectations. A stock or company can have a successful and profitable quarter business wise yet, if it does not meet or beat expectations, then not meeting those numbers can send the stock price tumbling even though the company did well.

Conversely, a stock price can be inflated due to unreasonable expectations only to come crashing back down from the reality of an accurate report.

To put it in terms that sport fans can understand,

its kind of like routing for the Minnesota Vikings...

or

The Washington Capitals...

or (conversely)

Even the Washington Redskins...

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I like this chart much better...

Even though it does shows "that" nasty little anomaly at the end of the month.

So, being the sadist that I be, I am working on my May watch lists and will be posting them by tomorrow.

Until then, be good, do well, have fun.

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A Good Month?

I’m pissed.

It is going to take me a long, Long, LONG time to get over this one...















I hate this chart.

1)It makes no sense.
2)Somebody made a lot of Freaking Money.
3)It wasn’t me.

It probably has something to do with day traders or some sort of program that kicked off or somebody sneezed and hit their nose on the “OMG it’s Armageddon - sell everything button”...

Did I mention that this makes no sense?

It’s crazy.

First, let me just say that POZN was on my watch list and was due to report (and did) on the 29th. It was also expecting a FDA report on one of it’s products on the 30th of April. Now I had done my research and found no readily published reason why the FDA would not approve this product for use. In fact many people had mentioned pretty much the same thing. The only thing I was not 100% sure about was the quarterly report.
As it turned out, they beat estimates, but missed on revenue. But the stock market seemed to still like the company because it made more than they expected, and were due to hear, by all anticipated accounts, a favorable approval report from the FDA the following day.
After previously hitting high price points earlier this month, the stock had pulled back about 10 – 15% as I had expected it would. So at the beginning of the week, I bought POZN. And for the rest of the week everything looked good. The stock was slowly going back up (about 10%) in anticipation of the quarterly report and FDA findings.

Secondly, let me just say that up until this point, it had been a pretty good month for my investments.

I gained about 40% off of GENT
I lost about 15% off of EMAN
I gained a few more points (5%) with Apple’s quarterly report
And I was up over another 10% with POZN.

So, then Friday April 30th started...

At first all was going well up until about 12:37 pm. Then all hell broke loose.

Now, you may have noticed that I lost 15% on EMAN. This was because I had a “stop loss” set to sell if the price fell beyond a certain point.

Now, stop loss orders are great. They have saved my butt and my money many times. But not this time...

As Friday came , started , progressed and went on past 11:00 AM with no news I was considering that maybe “no news is good news” was not such a good motto after all. You see, most of POZN’s announcements tend to happen either before market opens (as their quarterly report) or in the mornings. Of course we are dealing with the FDA and the government is notorious for hurry up and wait, and wait and wait..

Still, I was looking at a good month so far and started second guessing. And third guessing...

I know hype can work both ways (up and down). I had a big client meeting to go to and wanted to cash in on the (as I saw it a favorable FDA report) but did not want to lose what I had gained during the other 29 days of the month. So I entered a “stop loss” , not at 15% below my buy price but a couple tics above it.

Why? Because if paranoid hype hit the stock, and drove the price down, I still wanted to be able to cash in on the anticipated favorable FDA report next week. You see, if one sells a stock for a loss, you can not reinvest in it for about 30 days or so. But if you sell and make a profit, you can buy back in anytime you wish.
So shortly after 12 noon I entered my “safe” stop loss.

Hopped into my car and went to the big client meeting.

Then somebody sneezed.

Who could possibly know that 23 minutes later all hell would break loose and not only would I lose out on my weekly 10% gain, but the Freaking sell off would be so quick that my by the time my “sell” went into effect, it was actually at a loss.

Not a gain.

In a matter of minutes (or less) this stock went from over $12 a share to $5.50 a share. That is almost a 60% loss!

Then within about 20 minutes bounce back up from somewhere around $8 to over $11.00. Nearly a 40% gain!

And now, due to the anticipated FDA report (after closing), is back up over 20% from it’s Friday close in after hours trading.

For me, that is a 30% boot. Not only did I lose my 10 – 12% gain, but because of my fail stop loss (I can not reinvest) and am out the 20% gain.

It’s been a good month, really. Over all I am up about 15 – 20% (TBD) with my final review later this weekend.

It’s been a good month; I just have to keep telling myself that…

In less than 15 minutes, I lost out on nearly 50% gain for the month, instead of (15 – 20%).

It’s, been a good month; really?

It’s been a good month; I just have to keep telling myself that.

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Picks and Pans

My stock watch lists had a lot of speculative stocks this month, more than usual. Speculative stocks are riskier investments and their price fluctuations are usually more volatile. My results so far reflect just that.

Here are a couple examples:

EMAN
This company produces diodes and other optic and electronic parts that are necessary for the latest and greatest tech/AV craze – 3D! Its stock was on a rocket ride recently and like many fast flyers ran out of fuel and fell almost as quickly.

GENT
A Biotech/Pharm company that has posted good profits and expects positive cash flow for 2010; which is always a good thing. They are also looking for FDA approval to market products in the US.


















Looking at the patterns, GENT (although more volatile in price fluctuations) is actually the stronger pattern. GENT was in a good pendant (or triangle) pattern with progressively increasing high price points and (higher) low price points.

At the beginning of the month, EMAN, was still performing strong with good momentum, money flow and relative strength. But as you can see, that trend broke. Rather suddenly.

Unfortunately I invested in both.
Fortunately I had a stop loss (sell point) set on EMAN which limited my losses.
Unfortunately, (because I have a real job and am not a day trader and needed to wait for funds to clear) the stop loss did not kick in right away and I was a couple days later than I would have liked.
Fortunately GENT was still in its strong pattern and I was able to recoup most of my losses.

So, the end result is…

My first investment of GENT is up well over 30%.
My attempt at a quick hit on EMAN resulted in about a 17% loss.
My reinvestment added back into GENT recovered most of that 17% back.

End result, about 15% profit for the first 2 weeks of April. Not bad, could have been better, but could have been a lot worse.

It is hard to tell, but it looks as though GENT might be leveling off now in strength and price patterns so, I’m taking my profits and looking for another stock play to round out my 2nd half of April investing.

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