Picks and Pans

My stock watch lists had a lot of speculative stocks this month, more than usual. Speculative stocks are riskier investments and their price fluctuations are usually more volatile. My results so far reflect just that.

Here are a couple examples:

EMAN
This company produces diodes and other optic and electronic parts that are necessary for the latest and greatest tech/AV craze – 3D! Its stock was on a rocket ride recently and like many fast flyers ran out of fuel and fell almost as quickly.

GENT
A Biotech/Pharm company that has posted good profits and expects positive cash flow for 2010; which is always a good thing. They are also looking for FDA approval to market products in the US.


















Looking at the patterns, GENT (although more volatile in price fluctuations) is actually the stronger pattern. GENT was in a good pendant (or triangle) pattern with progressively increasing high price points and (higher) low price points.

At the beginning of the month, EMAN, was still performing strong with good momentum, money flow and relative strength. But as you can see, that trend broke. Rather suddenly.

Unfortunately I invested in both.
Fortunately I had a stop loss (sell point) set on EMAN which limited my losses.
Unfortunately, (because I have a real job and am not a day trader and needed to wait for funds to clear) the stop loss did not kick in right away and I was a couple days later than I would have liked.
Fortunately GENT was still in its strong pattern and I was able to recoup most of my losses.

So, the end result is…

My first investment of GENT is up well over 30%.
My attempt at a quick hit on EMAN resulted in about a 17% loss.
My reinvestment added back into GENT recovered most of that 17% back.

End result, about 15% profit for the first 2 weeks of April. Not bad, could have been better, but could have been a lot worse.

It is hard to tell, but it looks as though GENT might be leveling off now in strength and price patterns so, I’m taking my profits and looking for another stock play to round out my 2nd half of April investing.

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Hand Grenades against cancer

Every now and then..
I come across someone who has done some good research.
I come across someone who knows how things work and can think "outside the box".





I wish it happened more often.

In his article, 5 attractive stocks under $5, Michael Brush discusses an interesting company and stock called Genspera.

Even in this age of economic uncertainty, smart people are still developing new weapons against cancer, the second-most-common cause of death in the U.S., after heart disease. Craig Dionne, who headed up discovery research in biology at Cephalon (CEPH, news, msgs) for several years, now leads a tiny biotech startup called Genspera (GNSZ, news, msgs), which is developing what he likes to call a "hand grenade" against cancer.

Researchers at Johns Hopkins University have figured out a way to put a chemical "pin" on a powerful anti-cancer drug called thapsigargin, extracted from a readily available weed. The pin deactivates the drug, allowing it to circulate in the body without causing damage to good cells.

Enzymes from tumors "pull the pin," activating the drug only near the tumors. The drug destroys blood vessels feeding tumors, with limited damage elsewhere in the body. Genspera, which bought this approach from the Johns Hopkins professors who developed it, thinks it could be effective against a range of cancers.

The drug also causes cancer cells to flood with calcium, killing them. This approach is crucial against slow-dividing cells such as those in prostate-cancer tumors. Many chemotherapies take out cancer cells only when those cells divide; Genspera's compound doesn't wait.

Genspera is a risky investment, of course, as is any biotech startup. Its "hand grenade" approach looks effective in animals but may not work in humans. And it is still in early "phase one" testing, which checks for safety. However, I'm betting Dionne's two-decades-plus experience in drug development offsets these risks.

I think I'll add this one to one of my none monthly watch lists.

More about Genspera.

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