A Good Month

Well, March was actually a good month.

The NCAA March Madness has been absolutely wonderful to watch.

The Capitals have locked up a top spot in the playoffs.

The Redskins have shown some sanity in free agency.

And I did OK with my investments too.

So much so, that I am now beating all of the averages after the first three months.

I will try and update my resolutions page and publish April's watch lists this weekend.

I say try because it is Easter weekend and my daughters birthday monday.

Here is a quick look at my covestor tracker for the 1st quarter of 2010.

I can thank Family Dollar (FDO) and Aeropostale (ARO) for the nice gains this month.

Read more...

How to Kill a Sport...

Increase the Championship Tournament to 96 teams.

If this past weekend has proven anything, the NCAA does NOT need to increase the tournament from 64 teams to 96.

Sure there will always be the handful of teams (and their fans) that could argue that such and such team should have made the field but these 64 truly do represent the best of the best.

Given the fact that a bottom seed has NEVER (even after this past weekends cliff hanger) beaten a top seed, what good would adding more do to the tournament except eliminate the chances of having some true "Cinderellas" make the sweet 16 or final 4.

96 teams would do nothing except let more bad teams in. And who needs to watch that?

Read more...

Amazed, you'll be....

Believe it or not, there is more going on than just March Madness, Brackets, and Health care Reform.




There is also the US Census taking place.

Now how does this tie into Sports and Stocks?

Read on, and you will find out....

First of all the US Census is comprised of only 10 simple questions and you can not fill them out online. So if you get an email saying click here to complete the census, don't, it's a scam.

The questions are done via paper forms, and in some cases, census takers who go door to door or call (after completing the form if there are any questions or incomplete answers).

NOTE: A census taker must follow-up in person with every address that doesn't mail back the form in order to obtain the responses. So, this fact alone should motivate folks to fill out the form and mail it back.

The 2010 Census will help communities receive more than $400 billion in federal funds each year for things like:
Hospitals
Job training centers
Schools
Senior centers
Bridges, tunnels and other-public works projects
Emergency services
The data collected by the census also help determine the number of seats your state has in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Obviously the more accurate the data, hopefully, the more efficient government will be in allocating these funds and programs.

Distilled demographic data also benefits businesses. Here is one such example...

When an owner of 48 Subway stores throughout Arizona looks at the data, he can realize that in west Phoenix, where there is a large Hispanic presence, Fanta would be a big seller. In suburban Tucson, home to a lot of families with children, Hi-C pink lemonade sells well. Populations with a lot of older folks, on the other hand, seem to prefer root beer and Cherry Coke. Soda selection isn't just a question of regional tastes, but a major revenue driver. Sandwich price points like the $5 Footlong may bring customers into the store, but selling added drinks -- that's where you make the money.

Here, someone has taken census data, combined it with business / market knowledge, and applied the result to help boost business returns. And for any publicly traded stock, this would improve the performance of the stock in terms of quarterly profits and returns on investments.

This got me into thinking that there are obvious limitations to only ten questions and paper format of the US Census. There must be a ton of other information already out there, available, (such as the marketing knowledge of the Subway owner) which could be useful information.

Also, there should be more efficient ways of accurately collecting and analyzing data on a regular basis and it probably already exists.

Heck, we already pay taxes, both federally and locally, so the government already has primary and dependent information as well as ages and location of those of us who pay taxes.

Note: Right about this time in my thought process my cell phone rang.


Almost everyone I know has some sort of electronic communication device which they carry with them almost everywhere.

Residency information, Names, ages, family members (see "friends and family" promotions) could be collected as well as GPS information.

Not to mention that there are a ton of "social networking sites" out there which also have various information available.

Now I am not advocating disclosing specific information, that would be illegal. But the data could be mined and distilled, as census data is, to produce statistics, which can be disclosed.

Oh, and speaking of Cell phones...

Note to Tiger: Leave your Phone or PDA home at the masters. We don't care whether or not you win or lose, but guaranteed, the media will care if anybody sees you texting while playing golf!

Of course, we could all just get tiny little micro chips implanted in us and all that sort of information could be collected instantaneously. And don't worry about the cost of the procedure, I'm sure it would be covered under the new Universal Health care Reform Act.

Sorry, I digress just a bit... Now on to the rest of my Census post...

Then I got into thinking that there must be other country census's taken and I wondered what sort of data they collected.

For instance, in NZ, they collect data on similar things such as the USA, but they also collect data on Religion, Incomes, Education, and a whole lot more!

And right about then my wife forwarded me an email about a guy who got an Official UK apology from the UK Job office about Anti-Jedi Discrimination.

A believer in the Jedi religion won an apology from a job center that threw him out for refusing to remove his hood.

They apologized, adding: "We are committed to provide a customer service which embraces diversity and respects customers' religion."

Chris said: "I was just standing up for my beliefs. Muslims can walk around in whatever religious gear they like, so why can't I?"

Clicking on the link for the official Jedi Religion Homepage...

It states that the NZ Census considers such religious classifications as "Wicca" to be valid but that Jediism is not.

Perhaps if more census data was collected here in the United States there could be more and better representation of the population and accurate demographics for all.

After all, I bet there are some Jedi believers here among us now and we don't even know it.

See, I told you I could tie sports, stocks, health care and census together all in one post!

Amazed, you are :-)

Read more...

Bracket Busters

Officially I am in two bracket leagues.
Technically, I am in three. The third I did on my own not going against anybody in particular and based it entirely on who had the best last 10 game winning streak.

After round 1, I have 24 games out of 32 correctly picked in one and 19 in the other.

As it turns out, the third bracket I did also stands at 19.

All my brackets still have the final four in tact. Which was and continues to be my goal. I picked three different winners for each bracket. Syracuse, West Virginia, and Kentucky.

As I look at the different sites(ESPN, CBS, and FOX)NOBODY seems to have picked perfectly, but quite a few have 30 out of 32. That's amazing!

I wonder how many, like me, created more than one bracket?

This got me into wondering what the average number of brackets each person plays in.

I could not find an answer to that but I did find other interesting stats and trivia.

1) Odds of picking a perfect bracket? 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 to 1. That’s nine quintillion to one!

Think of it this way: if every man, woman, and child on the planet randomly filled out one million brackets each, the odds would be greater than 1000 to 1 that even one would have a perfect bracket

2) According to the NCAA, more than 10 percent of Americans participate in March Madness “office pools.”

3) The FBI estimates that more than $2.5 billion is illegally wagered annually on March Madness each year. Less than 4% of that amount is wagered legally in Nevada.

4) The phrase “March Madness” was coined by Henry V. Porter in 1939 to describe an Illinois high school basketball tourney. Brent Musburger first used it during NCAA coverage in 1982 causing a legal battle almost as insane as the playoffs.

Good luck to everyone and their brackets, except those going against me... ;-) and don't forget to get out this weekend and enjoy the weather! It is going to be close to 70 degrees here and sunny!

And to think, this time last month we had almost 3 feet of snow on the ground.

Read more...

The Quakers

There is more than one NCAA Basketball Tournament.

A small local, when I went to NC, school in Greensboro NC is going to the NCAA Division III championship series.

Guilford College, part of the Old Dominion Conference, is going back to the championship series for the 2nd year in a row.

This is huge for this College. Back when I went there we never won anything. The most excitement we had was from a two sport letter player Greg "keen-eye" Sims who played both Basketball and Football.

His brother, Marvin Sims, was drafted and played a couple years in the NFL for the then Baltimore Colts.

Greg's claim to fame was that he was easily one of the best athletes on campus, and...

He got invited by the Cowboys to attend their training camp. This was the same year that Everson Walls, who was another undrafted invite too, started and all Keen-Eye could talk about was how great Everson and all the other starters were.

Unfortunately Greg did not end up making the team but had an experience of a life time and great stories to tell.

So, congratulations to Guilford and good luck in the tournament!

Read more...

Bracket Racket

I never do well with March Madness Brackets.
Probably because I do not watch or follow basketball all that much.
Probably because it is so wonderfully unpredictable.

Quite frankly, college basketball is the only basketball I feel is worth watching and then, only during March Madness.

But of course not watching or following basketball on a regular basis does not mean I do not sign up for my fair share of pickem contests.

I do.

Who knows, I just might win.

After all, I read somewhere that a lady in an office pool won the last two years running. She does not know the teams, follow basketball, or even pretend to know any of the players or stats.

What's her secret?

She likes the name. She readily admits it is kind of like picking baby names and goes with the best sounding, or unique or personal favorite.

If she can do it, then so can I.

So here we go.

Final Four

West Virginia vs Purdue
Michagan State vs Syracuse

Championship

Syracuse over West Virginia

I kind of like my final four but maybe I will create one or two other brackets that pick different winners.

Oh, and just in case you have not noticed; I too have a contest currently in progress but only have one entry so far. :-(

Come on folks, now is the perfect time to dress up your dogs and submit a photo.

If Sam and Grace (the dog), the current lone entry, do win, lets at least give them some competition...

Read more...

Triangles and W's

This months watch lists have posted some classic ascending Triangle and "w" patterns with good results.

An ascending triangle pattern is characterized as a resting phase for the stock.

A trend line can be drawn connecting multiple or flat highs during this time, which should be horizontal to indicate some resistance above current prices. A second trend line is an ascending or rising trend line which connects multiple higher lows during this period, completing the ascending triangle pattern.

A breakout should occur about 2/3 of the way into the triangle, and happens when the overhead resistance is penetrated to the upside and buyers rush in to accumulate shares.


A "w" pattern is often known as a "double bottom" pattern. Here the pattern shows like a W with the middle part significantly lower that the beginning drop and ending rise before a brief holding pattern.

So how have my March watch list done?

The starting lineup is up 8%
The bench is up 5%

Here are the summaries:

STARTING LINEUP

EXPW – has maintained its strong climb and with the economy (though getting better) still putting the pinch on finances and jobs, pawn shops will continue to see good business.

GHM – had shown slow but steady rise in price and strength since falling off of yearly high points. An announcement of large contract orders sent the stock price back up towards the previous high price points and top resistance. It will be interesting to see what sort of pattern takes hold from here on out.

AAPL – When Apple hit the 210 mark at the beginning of the month there were plenty of folks saying that the stock was in a level trading pattern (with lateral swings in price between 10 and 20 points) and was due to dip back down 10 -20 points. I saw another example of a “W” pattern taking place similar to the stock points last June – July and as early as last December where the stock showed enough strength to break upwards. With the anticipation of the iPad I figured there might be potential for some “hype”. I’m not saying I was right, but… They were wrong.

AFAM – is still showing the potential for an upward break if it can maintain the second half of this current “W” pattern. Of course this is a big if but it deserves watching closely.

CAH – Has shown progressively higher “low” points and seems to be wanting to level off a bit. With all the buzz about health care going on, it will be interesting to see how this and AFAM react if a bill is approved.

FDO – This stock I held on to from last month and my patience paid off with a good quarterly report which sent the stock up earlier this month. I then sold for a 12.5% gain and still liking the retail outlook reinvested my monies in a stock listed on my “bench” list.

HQS – has shown good recovery after, like GHM, falling off of a high price resistance point. It has gone up 15% in the past month or so and continues to show strength. So what could go wrong? Monday evenings quarterly report for one thing. If you are a gambler and think they will beat estimates, a good report should be enough to send this stock into a breakout pattern past resistance. If they do not beat estimates, it could easily fall below resistance once again.

LHCG – Yup, you guessed it another “w” pattern and up over 8% for the month so far.

MFW – is showing a very similar patter that GHM had with sequentially higher lows, just not nearly as strong. It will be interesting to see if something happens to cause a break out like GHM.

RGR – a weak report from Smith and Wesson might be a good thing for this stock since it had been on a good run recently. This recent pull back might be a good opportunity to buy some more if you already own this stock.

BENCH

LLY – is showing the signs of a classic cup and handle pattern and could be poised for a break out in the next few weeks.

ARO – This is the stock I purchased after FDO and anybody holding this stock was nicely rewarded with both the anticipation of a good quarterly report AND actually getting a good quarterly report. With a run of nearly 20% for the month and about half of it post reporting gains, it just may be time to take the short term profits. The only reason not too is the fact that ARO also boosted its forecast for the next quarter, which is always a good sign. The keys to getting in on this ahead of time were, listening to other news reports that the retail sector shook off all the February snows and actually had a good month, an increase in volume and money flow into the stock, and my teenage daughter and her friends habitually always visiting this store, even in tough economic times.

COCO – my predication of cooling off of the big February run seems to be panning out on this one.

GME – This “falling knife” has actually benefited from a couple things. One being a bit of a ‘bounce’ effect often seen after a big drop in price, historical low pricing, and a suspicious take-over rumor. Boy I love hype but this might be very unsubstantiated hype with not a lot of supporting energy. But it was nice to see this stock bounce back up nicely, at least for a short while.

GXDX – Did I mention that good quarterly reports help move stocks up in price? Well the one this company posted at the end of February has helped fuel a March run.

HRL – and speaking of good reports, this stock had one last month but has been trading really flat for this month. Looks like investors and the market are not sure about which direction to take this stock. Still keep it on your watch list but wait for a more definitive pattern to develop.

ISSI – With falling relative strength. Money flow, and MACD, things are not look up for this stock.

LANC – see above.

MAT – This one has cooled a bit from its run up from, you guessed it, a previously good quarterly report. It may be setting up to challenge upper level resistance.

STRL – Is another stock challenging high point resistance but so far has not managed a breakout.

Read more...

4 for 3D

CBS Sports will show the semifinals and championship game of the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 3D.






Wow, don't these guys look excited!

Can you imagine having to go to the a movie theater to watch a final four game?
Or any other sporting event for that matter?

Not only do I not get excited about 3D, I can't see myself getting excited about going to see a game in a theater, wearing those stupid glasses, and watching the whole thing in a dark movie theater.

There is no interaction with fans, friends, and it kinda gets in the way of enjoying the whole experience. It just does not seem "special" to me.

God forbid you or someone else has to go to the bathroom or something, "ummm pardon me... oh excuse me, oh sorry, can I get by... thanks..." and miss a great shot or score! There certainly is no Tivo there either.

I just don't get it and probably never will.

Read more...

Stock up

Well February was a much better month for both resolutions and stock investments.

First, my 2010 RAP (Resolution Assessment Page)is looking much better with lots of smiley faces. Check it out.

Both of my February watch lists soundly beat all the averages!

February Starting Lineup +11%
February Bench +6%
DOW +2%
NASDAQ +4%

You will notice below that some stocks from my February watch lists have carried over to my March watch lists as well.

I have also included some riskier or questionable choices as well. They may be well suited for a longer investment as I will explain later.

Here is my March Starting Lineup:

EZPW Ezcorp Inc
This company lends or provides credit services to individuals to meet their short-term cash needs. It offers pawn loans, which are non recourse loans collateralized by tangible personal property, including jewelry, consumer electronics, tools, sporting goods, and musical instruments.

As of September 30, 2009, it operated a total of 910 locations consisting of 369 the U.S. pawnshops, 62 pawnshops in Mexico, 477 the U.S. short-term loan stores, and 2 short-term loan stores in Canada.

In today's economy this stock has seen nothing but strong growth lately.

GHM Graham Corp
Is one that has been on my stock lists before but not recently due to selling pressure and uncertainty with the economy and exchange rates. But they do have a good pipeline of contracts lined up and the stock is now sitting at a more attractive buy point.

AAPL Apple Inc
This one is self explanatory but, believe it or not, not a stock I often put on my lists and even more seldom buy except on big price drops. It showed up on my screens this time and seems to be holding a good support level and has shown signs of gathering strength lately.

AFAM Almost Family Inc
Together with its subsidiaries, provides home health services in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Visiting Nurse and Personal Care.

Lately the stock has fallen off a bit and upon closer examination might be setting up nicely into the last stage of a "W" pattern.

CAH Cardinal Health Inc
This is a carry over from my previous months watch list and it has once again made my screening lists.

Lately the stock has experience a bit of an uptick in money flowing into the stock and is looking to break past the $34 resistance point. This could be setting up for a breakout if it is successful.

FDO Family Dollar Stores Inc
Another carry over from last month and continues its slow but steady rise above its break out point. With favorable reports from similar stores such as the Dollar Tree, there just may be more fuel for this slow but steady stock to rise further.

HQS HQ Sustainable Maritime Industries Inc
Yes, another carry over that is also experiencing money flowing into the stock. It has not quite taken off like one may have expected, mostly due to other economic factors, but this stock is still worth a spot on the watch list.

LHCG LHC Group Inc
provides post-acute health care services primarily to Medicare beneficiaries in rural markets in the United States.

This is another stock, which if it holds above its low support level, looks like it too could be entering the last part of a "W" pattern or a modified double bottom pattern.

MFW M & F Worldwide Corp.
together with its subsidiaries, provides check and check-related products, marketing, and contact center services to financial and commercial institutions, as well as directly to individual consumers in North America and internationally.

I was reluctant to put this one my watch list even though it made it past my screens simply because my natural instinct is that this type of service and product is not as in demand now a days as it used to be. But judging by the fact it has been and continues to be profitable, it is clear this stock deserves another look.

RGR Sturm Ruger & Co Inc.
engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of firearms in the United States. The company offers its products under the ‘Ruger’ name and trademark.

This stock has recently pulled back off of yearly highs and may be ready to go back up. This is another one which has looked stronger lately with a modest price increase and influx of money.

Listed below is my March Bench watch list.

This list, as you may recall me saying earlier, has some less favorable and riskier stocks which might be better investments for the long haul rather than the short term.

LLY Eli Lilly and Co
Another stock I usually do not invest in but this time it did make my screens and seems to be setting up a decent support base.

ARO Aeropostale Inc.
If you are willing to bet on the retail market, this stock seems to be in a decent holding pattern. Look for a bit of a dip in price so long as it does not go below $33.

COCO Corinthian Colleges Inc.
One of my decent winners from last month, and I still like this stock. I just think it is due for a bit of a cool off and pull back. But, I've been wrong before, so who knows.

GME GameStop Corp.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Never catch a falling knife. Which is exactly why this stock should not be on my list. However, it is approaching both 2 and 5 year support lows!

If anything, there might be a bit of a bounce back up but this stock is at a point that it is almost intriguing to watch but not quite ready to invest in yet.

GXDX Genoptix Inc
provides specialized laboratory service that focus on delivering diagnostic services in the United States. Its services include COMPASS service offering, in which the company’s hematopathologists determine the appropriate diagnostic tests to be performed, and then integrates patient history and previous and current test results into a comprehensive diagnostic report; and CHART service offering, in which the hematologists and oncologists receives a detailed assessment of a patient's disease progression over time.

With that said, another company that is new to my screens and I have put as a watch. It too, has recently fallen off of high points and has shown a slight but steady increase in strength.

HRL Hormel Foods Corp
This stock has had a good, but sudden, increase in stock price. I prefer to wait and see if it establishes itself into a good pattern or instead continues to fall back down, especially below the $40 level.

ISSI Integrated Silicon Solution Inc
A semiconductor company, designs and markets integrated circuits for digital consumer electronics, networking, mobile communications, automotive electronics, and industrial markets.

Another stock worth watching to see if it establishes a good support level or falls back down after its recent run up.

LANC Lancaster Colony Corp
engages in the manufacture and marketing of consumer products in the United States. The company operates in the following segments: Specialty Foods, and Glassware and Candles.

Again, recently it 52 week highs, repeatedly, and I rather it to fall back instead of continue upwards, but like the others, worth watching.

MAT Mattel Inc.
Has had a good financial report and seems to be leveling off nicely. Even with its recent run up in price, this stock is relatively inexpensive to its peers and continues to be profitable. Definitely worth a watch.

STRL Sterling Construction Co Inc
a heavy civil construction company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the building, reconstruction, and repair of transportation and water infrastructure in Texas and Nevada. Its transportation infrastructure projects include highways, roads, bridges, and light rail; and water infrastructure projects comprise water, waste water, and storm drainage systems.

This stock looks like it is trying to establish slow but steadily increasing low points in its stock price. Meaning it may be ready to start another upward trend.

They report this month on the 16th.

Read more...

Mutt Madness

In the spirit of March madness and in an effort to honor all sport fans, both human and non human, I introduce the first annual Fumbled Returns Mutt Madness Contest.

Actually, it is a really boring time for football and fantasy football fans everywhere and I was looking for a way to spice things up a bit.

So, without further delay, I introduce Fumbled Returns Mutt Madness!!!

The Rules:
1) Open to any sport or team or athlete of your choice.
2) Open to any type of Dog of your choice. Sorry, we are dog people no other pets allowed in contest.
3) Decorate your dog(s) in your favorite team or sport hero’s colors, logos, uniforms, or what ever you can think of. The end result should be to show both yours and your pets loyalty and passion and humor for the sport and the game.

These next ones should be obvious but I am going to include them anyway…
4) No permanent damage and or do not physically harm your pet in any way.
5) Tasteful entries only please, though I will be the judge as to what is tasteful or not, and I have been known to have my moments (slip ups in judgment). So if you have a risqué risky idea (but not too much) go ahead and submit it.

Contest starts March 1st and ends March 29th.
Category winners will be announced March 30th.
Top Dog (Grand Prize Winner) will be announced March 31st.

The Categories:

Rookies: This is for puppies up till the age of 1 year. Because we all know that puppies have mega cute factor when young and may pose an unfair advantage to the older entries.

Veterans: Adult dogs over 1 year of age. Despite the fact that nearly all sports and contests are split between men and women, I am keeping this as one category. After all, we all know that both are equal… right? ;-)

Groupies: For entries of two or more pets.

Faux-Paws: (for photochop experts)Because, we all know that there always some athletes and contestants who are… “enhanced”.

Entries and Winner Determination:

Send all entries to fumbledreturns@gmail.com

Please include your pet(s) name and the category you wish to be entered in.

All approved entries will be posted on the Fumbled Returns Facebook Fan Page for everyone to view, comment and most importantly VOTE ON.

Each category will be a separate photo album on the fan page.

You can cast your vote by pressing the “like” button on the entries you like most.

You can vote for more than one entry but not multiple times for the same entry.

The Prizes:

The winner of each category will receive a yet to be determined prize (probably some sort of sports chew toy). If there is a tie (as in two or more category entries have the same number of "like" votes) the tie breaker will be who has the most favorable comments. If there is still a tie, I get to pick.

A grand prize, Top Dog, winner will be chosen, by my wife and I, and receive a complimentary hand painted painting of the winner as interpreted by my lovely and talented wife.

You can see excellent examples of her work on Etsy.

She also runs a blog called Hope and Greyz.

So everyone get your thinking caps on, and get as creative as you can be, and dress up those wonderful pets of yours.

Spread the word to all your friends to try and get the most votes and may the best contestant win!

Check back as often as you wish to view new and updated entries!

Read more...

Get Psyched !!!

It's time to get psyched about sports again!














With all the bad press Maryland has gotten lately, it's nice to see something good happen with their game. And, even though I went to college in NC, I am a born and raised Maryland fan.

FEAR THE TURTLE !!!


Maryland 88

(#3) North Carolina 85



Of course there were other great games which helped stir the post season pot as well...


Big 12 Action... Texas 73 Oklahoma 68
PAC 10 Action... Washington State 82 UCLA 81

But who cares about those ;-)

GO ACC !!!









And, as if March Madness was not enough to get ones sports blood flowing again...

HE'S BACK !!!



With golf tournament attendance down as much as 30% and PGA TV ratings down as much as 50%, the Tiger Woods Stimulus Plan is just what they need to get ratings back on track.









And last but certainly not least...
Hockey is entering the final stretch towards the post season and, at least around here, all attention will be focused on the CAPS!!!
GO RED!

Read more...