The Big Thaw

June was the warmest June in recorded history for Washington DC.

We had 18 days of 90+ degrees
The next three days of July are expected to reach 100.

All this warm weather make me wish we had Snowmagedon again.

Back in the cold old days (December 2009 - March 2010) we had record snow falls and record cold temperatures.

Between November 1, 2009 and May 1, 2010 the DOW rose nearly 15% from about 9700 to over 11,300.

Like the record heat and the memories of all that wonderful snow, all the profits we experienced during this brief recovery have melted away.

The DOW now sits at 9686.

Bye Bye Snow

Bye Bye Profits.








Two months ago I was worried that so much of the market was at 52 week highs and all the bail out and incentives for economic growth were expiring that we were due for a correction.

Now, along with all that, and a record oil spill, folks are talking about a double dip recession.

And I am still worried, not because of the abnormal record highs, but because now so much of the market is either at, or approaching, critical low support levels; that if they do not hold, we will be dipping back into a recessionary pattern.

If some of the stocks on my July watch list pan out, and the support levels hold, we could see a short term rebound. If not, well then the thaw continues and we are indeed in store for a rough ride.

Hmmm, just in case you did not notice, I just said that I was either going to make money or lose money in the stock market... Profound wisdom if I do say so myself...

So, with that said, here is my July watch list with a new, and still evolving format, (I've decided to list the Stock along with a short reason why to buy it and one reason why not to buy it )to help folks decide the pros and cons to investing in any of these ideas.

STARTING LINEUP:

MDF - Metropolitan Health Networks
Why Buy? High inside ownership, Good Cash Flow, profitable, good return on assets, Maintaining valuation in down market.
Why Not? Still within 20% of 52 week high, Uncertainty in Healthcare field and increased risk with all the new regulations.
Reports August 2nd.

NBIX - Neurocrine Biosciences Inc
Why Buy? Still maintaining good money flow and relative strength. recently entered a deal with Abbott, which paid Neurocrine $75 million upfront, with the potential for another $500 million plus royalties still to come.
Why Not? May be cooling off of recent momentum swing and like any pharm company, their pipeline is always a gamble as to whether or not the product ever gets to market.
Reports August 2nd.

CKSW - ClickSoftware Technologies Ltd.
Why Buy? Money flow and Relative Strength are increasing, may be setting up into a reversal (double bottom or W) pattern after falling over 25%. A well run, profitable, not debt company.
Why Not? Pattern may not hold up and needs to be watched. Reasons for drop include economic crisis in Europe which accounts for a large portion of their revenue and two counter intuitive prospectus filings which worried many investors.
Reports July 15th.

CNU - Continucare Corp.
Why Buy? Near low support level of 3.4 – 3.5. No Debt. High inside ownership. Not under federal investigation.
Why Not? Federal investigations into other providers in the industry has driven all stock prices lower and may spook investors. May not bounce off of support levels due to selling pressures.
Reports September 6th.

COF - Capital One Financial Corp.
Why Buy? OK, how many of you said “what’s in your wallet”. Name Recognition. Federal Bail out. May be setting up a “w” pattern with buy in support near 38.
Why Not? Economy, debt and defaults are still a problem. Money flow, relative strength and trend lines are decreasing. The “w” pattern may not pan out and may actually be the signal of a reversal pattern. So this requires a close watch. Goal would to be buy at 38 and sell around 42.
Reports July 22nd.

DD - Du Pont
Why Buy? This is actually a good recovery stock to invest in over the long term – because the recovery will be long and choppy. Pays good dividends. Look for this stock to bounce off of a double support level close to 34.
Why Not? Market uncertainty and “double dip” recession will affect this global company and the 34 support level may not hold. Money flow and strength trending lower.
Reports July 27th.

IDCC - InterDigital, Inc.
Why Buy? wireless technology and patent company expanding overseas market which is one of the larger segments of this line of business. Currently at low support levels.
Why Not? Still under selling pressure with money flow and relative strength weakening.
Reports July 26th.

IPXL - Impax Laboratories Inc
Why Buy? Great generic drug manufacturer and distributor with opportunity to expand generic pipeline and nearing attractive price point between 17 and 18. No debt.
Why Not? Competition, patent infringement law suits, and current eroding of money flow and relative strength make this a gamble.
Reports August 2nd.

RGR - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.
Why Buy? This took off for a 40% run the last time I put it on my watch list in March and has since fallen back off of its peak. Deserves a watch to see what happens price wise between 12 – 14. Recent economic downturn and favorable court ruling make this worth another entry on to the watch list. Profitable and no debt company.
Why Not? Although it is approaching another support point, trend lines have not completely stopped their downward movement off of the high points. The 12 support level is critical and is still more than 10% difference.
Reports July 26th.

SCL - Stepan Company
Why Buy? Well run specialty chemical company making investments world wide to expand capability and efficiency of delivery to a global market.
Why Not? Payoffs to these investments are at least a year away and current economic issues weigh, like other stocks, on the price of this investment opportunity.
Reports July 26th.

BENCH:

CEU - China Education Alliance, Inc.
Why Buy? at critical low support level (triple bottom pattern with not a lot of upward momentum support) - risky play to bet going back up but worth a watch. No debt, high profit margins, and inside investors.
Why Not? The Motley Fool has articles posted galore about this stock.. ;-) . Seriously though, this is an out of favor industry lately and they do face a fair amount of competition over seas.

CMFO - China Marine Food Group Limited
Why Buy? has been falling lately but an uptic in money flow and ownership might indicate the beginnings of an upswing - watch
Why Not? There have been rumors and accusations regarding fraud with this company however the fact of the matter is that many of their actions are concerned with “empire” building and stock price rather than building up tangible value in the company. This may all pan out in the future but for now this is purely a short term bet.

GFRE - Gulf Resources Inc
Why Buy? at a low support level - look to see if it drops closer to 8 - recent article about china investing in oil reserves to help support growing economy - may be time to buy into this. No Debt, high insider investment, high rate of return on capital and assets.
Why Not? In addition to the low support level, the stock has also failed to break top resistance either and this might be a sign of continued weakness.
Reports August 9th.

ABC - AmerisourceBergen Corp
Why Buy? A financial management company in an out of favor industry that has a good dividend yield an good profit margins and is nearing a historical low point. Definitely one worth watching in my book. This falls into my ideal contrarian mold.
Why Not? A fair amount of debt, lower than ideal profit margins and low insider investing.
Reports July 26th.

AMGN - AMGEN INCWhy Buy? A big, I mean really big pharm company at a low support level with a good pipeline of prospects makes this a stock worth putting on the watch list.
Why Not? As with any pharm company, not everything in the pipeline will succeed nor is it immune from competition and patent infringement lawsuits.
Reports July 29th.

BBY - BEST BUY CO INC
Why Buy? If an economic recovery kicks in, this is a great stock to have. It is currently at low support levels and looking as an attractive buy.
Why Not? Well, if nobody gets jobs, then the economy will stall, and people will not buy stuff from Best Buy. Carries a fair amount of debt which could also put it at risk.
Reports September 14th.

CEPH - Cephalon, Inc.
Why Buy? Just like AMGN - good returns, pipeline, expanded research and all time support low
Why Not? It has been mired in lawsuits and patent infringement cases throughout it’s history.
Reports July 27th.

CRVP - Crystal Rock Holdings, Inc.
Why Buy? Well, penny stocks so rarely make my lists that I just had to take a closer look at this one. For a penny stock they have decent numbers and are at the bottom of a well established trading range.
Why Not? I do not see any long term expansion plans, or new marketing plans. Therefore not huge amounts of growth. However, they could be bought out by a large cap competitor but this is the equivalent of winning the lottery.
Reports September 13th.

MSFT - MICROSOFT CORP
Why Buy? The stock is approaching an attractive buy in price and they have recently entered into a new product upgrade cycle with Windows 7, which has good reviews, and Office 2010. Business will upgrade to these new and improved products.
Why Not? Though attractive price it has not reached a support level nor is there any guarantee exactly when business will feel compelled to spend the money on upgrades. This is obviously dependent on the economic recovery.
Reports July 22nd.

SNDK - SanDisk Corp
Why Buy? Approaching good support and buy in price of 40 with anticipated future demand for chips in the Tech market a buy for this stock.
Why Not? Tech stocks are particularly susceptible to market and economic sentiment, especially bad economic news.

Read more...

Small People

So, on the one hand you have BP and their executives, and heck, even the entire oil industry and even the Obama administration that folks are beginning to really hate.










On the other hand, you have these people who, though well intentioned, are going about it all the wrong way.












Here is why.

BP does not make a lot of money off of the individual gas stations. And let me stress "individual" because the retailers are often folks from your neighborhood who depend on the sale of not only the gas but all the impulse necessities that go along with it: like Milk, Donuts, Coffee, Hot Dogs, etc etc...

With these economic hard times, the last thing we need to be doing is putting folks out of a job.

BP makes a lot of money off of the crude oil that it sells. That means they sell the crude oil before if ever reaches the gas pump. In fact, you could buy BP crude oil by products from most any other retailers (not just gas station) in most every area of the economy. In fact it could show up in just about any petroleum based product.

Boycotting BP does not really hurt BP nearly as much as it hurts the small people individual people and families in our communities.

So what do we do?

The problem is not just with BP or the Government but with our nations dependency on oil. Period.

A while back I posted this post about seizing the moment to change our energy dependency. Yes, the president mentioned this during his speech the other night but it was a little late.

The plan, everyone needs a plan, should be to ween ourselves off of oil dependency.

Some say do not buy BP stock. Well, that has already happened. BP stock has been cut in half and is still under downward pressure. In fact, whenever they get around to actually stopping the oil leak, I would argue that it is time to buy their stock.

The big question is how low will the stock price go. I think it is probably at a support level now. If it continues downward, look for a 65-70% reduction then beyond that close to 85-90%.

So, how can we make BP pay up and punish them at the same time?

Well, they have already put up $20 Billion dollars worth of their own capital up for compensation. So, we do not want BP to go out of business.

But believe me, if their stock goes down anywhere close to 90% in value, (that would be close to $10 or less in price), I say buy as much as you possibly can. Because when it goes back up, and it will, you can sell that stock you just made a killing on and use the profits to buy an eco-friendly or natural gas car!

Don't worry, by then gas stations will have plenty of options available for fueling or recharging cars.

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Budget Buster

Snow So, I was wondering about all the "costs" of this epic winter and associated snows.

The Federal Government has been shut down for 3 consecutive days due to the weather. This is the first time this has happened in over 15 years!

One estimate puts the "cost" of the shutting down the federal government for a day at roughly $100 million in lost productivity and opportunity. Meaning that so far this winter has cost the tax payers nearly $400 million.

This winter is definitely one for the record books. By the time it is all over, Punxsutawney Phil say 6 more weeks, this will be the snowiest winter in 100 years.

Businesses are also impacted by the snow. Often businesses are either closed or not properly staffed due to employees not able to get to work. This results in lost revenue and added costs of paying employees who do not report to work.

There are also other costs associated with all this snow.

Maryland has (as of last week before the big storm finished and before today's third big snow) already spent $50 million of the $60 million budgeted to keep the snow clear. In D.C., officials said they were over their $6.2 million snow budget even before the storm started. And Pennsylvania officials said they had already spent half of their $245 million winter operations budget before the storm hit.

This has prompted some to call for an increase in taxes to help insure that we all can get to work in the snow. A kind of "snow insurance" tax.

This is stupid.

If we had this kind of winter all the time, then the budgets to clear the snow would be higher and therefore the taxes would be too.

The budgets are set based on historical trends and norms. They balance risk vs reward all the time. The risk of this happening, in the DC area, every year is negligible.

There are a ton of other factors that influence lost work, productivity and business revenue.

Yes, there are plenty of jobs that require people to be someplace else in order to perform their work. But in today's society, especially with more and more people and businesses relying on the Internet there is opportunity to look at other resources to enable folks to work.

If anything, this winter event, should be a great example for the need to have better telecommute policies and programs.

Lets look at some of the risk vs reward and potential cost savings for telecommuting.

I pulled the following examples from Innovisions Canada, well, because I was still thinking snow and work and thought where is there usually lots of snow, people, and the need to work. I naturally thought of the great white north, Canada.

Recruitment & Retention Telework is becoming a make-or-break issue in employee career decisions. If you have recruitment or retention problems, consider EKOS Research findings: 33% of Canadians would choose telework over a salary raise: 43% would quit for another job that allows telework.

Morale Telework is a morale builder. Resisting it, especially when your competitors offer it to their staff, damages morale.

Even my company, a major IT corporation, could benefit and improve from the first two alone. Non essential personnel and sites are closed for work but you have to either make up the lost hours or take PTO.

Real estate & office costs Your organization could save 1 office for every 3 teleworkers (that's about $2,000 per teleworker per year, or $200,000 per 100 teleworkers).
With telework, AT&T saved $3,000 per office for approximately $550 million by eliminating or consolidating office space people no longer need.
About 25% of IBM's 320,000 workers worldwide telecommute from home offices, saving $700 million in real estate costs.

Productivity Dozens of reputable studies have proven that teleworking 1 to 3 days per week easily increases overall employee productivity by 10 to 20% -- a great way to trim overtime and related costs. Doing the math, five to 10 teleworkers equates to one "free" extra worker. This negates the myth that teleworkers will goof off because they are "out of sight."

American Express telecommuters handled 26% more calls and produced 43% more business than their office-based counterparts.
Compaq Computer Corporation documented productivity increases ranging from 15 to 45%.
Surveys and pilots conducted by IBM Canada (where about 20% of its workforce teleworks) indicate that employees can be as much as 50 per cent more productive when they work in telework environments.

Stress & work/life balance Work / home life conflict is the top Canadian job disatisfier. With telework's fewer interruptions and improved productivity help employees catch up on their work; and reduce their stress, burnout risk, going-to-work costs and commuting time. Remember that the total yearly commute of average Canadian workers equates to six to eight full workweeks.

So, perhaps the real budget buster is not necessarily the snow storms and closure of the government and business, but rather the lack of adequate alternative resources for enabling people and businesses to work.

Another good resource site for telecommuting is Telecommuting360.

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The Economy is great !

You can find deals everywhere from Walmart (WMT), to Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T), to fast food chains (Mcdonalds (MCD) and Burger King (BKC) $1 value items), to online brokerage firms (Both Schwab (SCHW) and Fidelity undercut the fee schedule of $7.99-$12.99 for most E*Trade (ETFC) transactions and a flat $9.99 for all Ameritrade (AMTD) trades), to; yes, even credit card companies.

This is a perfect example of deflation which is affecting nearly all parts of the economy.

All of the "excesses" of the previous economy, which was behind both the boom and the bust, have now created a climate of deflation.

Of course this is not good for businesses, as they now have to not only struggle with less consumer spending but now they have to deal with less revenue streams, and reduction in profit margins.

Yes, there is always two sides to a coin, and always a sword with two edges. The result of this economy unfortunately also translates into added pressure on people with lower salaries, unemployment, and defaults in credit and loans.

There is no utopia. There will always be a certain amount of insecurity, risk and "bad side" to everything in life. But there will always be the "good side" as well.

This reminds me of a quote I heard, "There is no security, only opportunity".

Today's economy, though far from perfect, has created opportunity.

Here is how I have taken advantage of some of this opportunity.

Credit Cards:

One of my resolutions this year is to reduce, hopefully eliminate, non housing debt.
One step I have towards doing this is to open a credit card account with a 0% interest and fee promotion. This last for up to 12 months depending on ones credit history and score.

The good side - no interest on balances for 12 months. This means my monthly payments go entirely to paying down the principle balance.

Of course as I pay down that amount, I apply (no matter how small an amount) the savings next month to my payment.

Coupons and Promotions:

This first month alone, we have been able to take advantage of department and grocery store promotions and coupons to save on everyday purchases. This enables me to apply these savings to paying down my debt even more.


So, how have all you readers, bloggers and Internet surfers out there found ways to save and take advantage of opportunity?

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1 + 1 = 2

That simple equation, one we all learn as kids, is the basic formula anyone needs to remember when talking budgets.

I was originally going to post about one of my new years resolutions, Reducing Debt, but then I realized that before anybody starts talking about reducing debt, one needs to address his or her own budget.

And just like resolutions, budgets should be specific, tailored to your life style, and have goals.

If you make a resolution, or approach the idea of having a budget, by saying “I’m going to make a budget” and stick to it; though noble, I believe is opening the door for failure.

Here’s why.

Lets say you plan on making a budget to go on that Caribbean Vacation you love to go one each year, and or to save enough to one day buy a house.

Hopefully, if these are some of your top priorities, every time you pull out that plastic or cash, you will think, “do I really need this” or “will this help me reach my goal?”

Which gets me to the basic components of the formula.

Needs and Wants:

Needs are what you have to spend. Fixed costs, bills and expenses that you need or know you will have to pay every month.

Some people put these into basic categories of Food, Shelter and Clothing. However, there are usually more than just these three. Such as; Utilities, Loans, Taxes, Transportation, and don’t forget those once or twice a year bills such as insurance payments.

Wants are those things that add enrichment, entertainment, and pleasure to our lives. Wants is where your goals really come into play. Your top want, top goal, should be what you really want to obtain, what you are really saving and spending your money for. Not your bills. Not your budget.

A budget is nothing more than a tool, a means of balancing and prioritizing all your needs and wants in such a way so that 1 + 1 really does = 2.

So, where do some of us get into trouble?

Well, one area is separating needs and wants. Example: Housing. A basic need. But do you pay for a luxury condo, or split rent with others in on a 2 or three bedroom apartment, or even (hopefully temporarily) live with parents or relatives. Example2: Transportation. Walking vs. Biking vs. Public Transportation vs. Porsche. I think you get the idea.

Budgets are not easy. They require us to make choices. They require us to look at ourselves, our habits and life styles. They require constant attention and yes, sometimes become quite a balancing act. But they are necessary. It is these reasons that people often view budgets as limiting; and therefore not necessarily a good thing.

But they are good, and in the end, not limiting but rather enabling and liberating!
When making a budget, and sticking to it, adjusting it as needed, it is important to view it as a means to an end. And, just as we are all different, so too are budgets. Budgets should be tailored to what is important to you and what you value and how you live.

So, what is my budget?

Here are the top level categories. I have each with sub categories but here are the top.

Housing:
Groceries:
Transportation:
Bills & Utilities:
Shopping:
Education:
Time Outs:
Misc Taxes:
Savings:
Debt:

Unfortunately, that last one has crept back into my budget and the topic of one of my New Years resolutions and future post(s).

Until next time, and with all things…

Be good, do well, have fun.

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B+

Obama gives himself B+ for first months in office.






















Gee, what school kid wouldn't want to give himself or herself their own grade?

How Nice.

Fortunately or unfortunately, the AMERICAN political grading system comes in the form of elections...

And the last time I checked, there are still 3 years to go.

So, for now, I, as a registered grader, will stick with the scale our county school system uses for all kids in their first years of public education.

Incomplete with needs improvement and no days absent.

You can keep track of performance here...

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For Sale: Heaven and Hell !!!

Yes folks! Yours today! Get em' while they last!

Just in time for the Holidays!

Your Chance, or that of an acquaintance, for a spot in Heaven or Hell!

Reserve today!















Reserve a Spot in Heaven


And while you are at it....

Don't miss out on your chance to send that someone special to the eternal hot seat!!!

Or, perhaps you, yourself, already know your fate and are willing to accept it and actually look forward to sweating it out and drinking shots with all your fellow drug addicts and strippers.













Reserve a Spot in Hell

This has got to be one of the best, silliest and unique new business sites I have seen in quite a while.

Alas, I am not imaginative, nor quite brave enough to venture into this realm of online sales.

But bravo to those who did and boldly went where we have not.

Yet.

PS. I found this from the MSN article "America's Best Home Business Ideas"

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It's about time

And paying attention.

This month was horrible for stocks. Specifically mine.
I must admit, that I was worried about the market having gone up nearly 60% amid a recession. But according to the Federal Government the recession is over.















Don't all you unemployed folks stand up and cheer at the same time.

Fact is, everything was due for a correction. A cooling off of sorts. And all it took was fear that the recovery was not sustainable, fear that everything is not going back to normal, (see unemployment figures) and that the upcoming retail season will be less than enthusiastic.

In fact, many analysts, were predicting a jobless recovery out of this recession and it looks as though they are right.

Also, not all the mortgage and financial problems that got us into this mess are completely over yet either. I mentioned this earlier this year and also saw this article recently which seemed to highlight my thoughts and this trend.

So what about all this stimulus and bailout money that either saved or created hundreds upon thousands of jobs and saved the auto and finance industries?

Well, the cash for clunkers was very temporary and if our recent experience shopping for newused cars is any indication, the auto industry still has a long way to go. In short, the dealers are desperate to make a sale. What usually takes weeks of me gong back and forth with dealerships negotiating, took only a matter of days to close the deal.

The bailout money to banks and finance institutions kept them from going under and probably saved us from going immediately into a depression. But as we saw in the previous article, there is still a lot of bad dept out there both on the residential side as well as on the commercial side.

And as for the saved jobs, many could be temporary if funding and the economy does not get better.

So, is all doom and gloom? Is it scary?

Hopefully the answers are no and maybe...

Here are the results for October.

















My Starting lineup lost over 10% and my Bench lost more than 6%.
And what is truly amazing is that many of the stocks were up quite a bit half way through the month.

Case in point, CTFO which ended down 22%, was at one point up nearly 30% !
A 50%+ swing in less than one month !!!

Amazing!

So should we all bail out of the stock market and run for the cover of Bank CD's and Bonds?

If you do not like volatility, yes.

If you don't mind it, and are willing to pay attention, you just might be able to profit from the volatility.

Actually, I am in a way glad to see everything come down. At the beginning of last month, I was looking at the stocks in my watch lists and the market overall and saw A LOT of peeking chart patterns and stocks hitting 52 week highs. I figured it was time for a correction and this makes stock picking more difficult.

Guess I did not pay enough attention and heed my own advice...

This falls into my "I hate it when I'm right" category.

So, where does this leave us, and me, for stocks in November?

Well, here is my November Watch list(s).






















For this month, I looked for stocks which past my screens and were either positioned for a recovery, near support levels, and or well run and well diversified to take advantage of areas of a strengthening economy even though not all parts seem to be recovering at the same pace.

Starting lineup:

UEPS Net 1 Ueps Technologies Inc
This is one that was on earlier watch lists and has a good business model which works well in any financial condition. It has recently dropped from recent highs, nearing a support range and is once again worth watching.

GME GameStop Corp
Another one from earlier this year. Even though Retail is expected to be down, this stock was hit by recent sell off and is well positioned to capitalize on the holiday / and post holiday season.

CNU Continucare Corp
Approaching critical support level - watch to see if it holds or looses support.

NTES Netease.com Inc
Time to buy back in. Recently seems to have bounced off of a good support low. They report earnings on the 18th.

IAX International Absorbents Inc
Pets supplies and bedding - Has maintained good results even in recession -recent good qrtly report. One thing I have learned over the years, people love their pets and they often spend the money to make them comfortable and healthy.

FCFS First Cash Financial Services Inc
Financially strong company with a recently good earnings report. It is currently in a dip hitting support levels.

GHM Graham Corp
Good well run company up over 30% for year - good pipeline - reports and recently pulled back to a more attractive potential buy in level.

ENSG Ensign Group Inc
Good play on aging population and seems to have weathered the recession better than some of its competition. Company reports earnings Tuesday.

OFI Overhill Farms Inc
Recent 52 week highs with an even more recent 10- 12 % pull back nearing support levels. Deserves a watch.

BKE Buckle Inc
Recent pull back to support levels with earnings release set for the 19th. Worth a watch even with uncertainty in retail sector.

BENCH:

HOGS Zhongpin Inc
Do not like pattern - could be head and shoulders pattern. But I love the name. ;-)
Seriously, a bit of a risky play but there is always a chance it will maintain support levels but deserves caution.

BBND BigBand Networks Inc
Risky but in a good sector for growth. This company just might be potentially good take over position wait until after earnings report on the 9th.

SYNT Syntel Inc
Recently fell past support at 38 next level at 30. May still fall more. But if it holds, look for a good rebound.

CFSG China Fire & Security Group Inc
A good china play that requires attention to timing.

NVO Novo-Nordisk A/S ADR
Hit Support Level and is a good play on the risky Pharma sector.

GRMN Garmin Ltd
I am not convinced that, even hitting support, this company will please analysts enough over the holidays for a stock price recovery. But, I've been wrong before and the screens seem to think it is a possible candidate for upward movement. But they've been wrong before too...

CHNG China Natural Gas Inc
Leveling off after slight pull back and reports on the 9th.

CTFO China TransInfo Technology Corp
This is the big swing stock I mentioned earlier. So, why do I keep it on a watch list? Well, Support levels were at 9 , 8 , 7, 6 (with 6 being the critical one. Peak / Drop (Triangle) pattern has been exaggerated by recent scare. May be ready for a bounce and or recovery. But be careful. It could still go lower to the critical 6 support level.

POWL Powell Industries Inc
Good sound company bouncing off of 52 week highs. Look to buy on bigger dips in price.

ISSC Innovative Solutions and Support Inc
Has been recently awarded contracts and appears to be on the move. Though I am not seeing clear buy signs at the moment (pattern wise) so I have it here on my bench watch list.

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Who Ya Gonna Call?

For investment advice?









Yeah, I know, you feel that they have all your money and bank accounts already but...

How about the Federal Government.

The SEC to be exact.

It seems that the SEC has a new investment site called investor.gov up and running which is really pretty good.

It's not flashy. It has the look and feel of a monolithic government building.

But it does provide really good basic information, in a well organized and "one-stop" format, on the following:

How to start planning.
How to choose good investments, firms, and brokers.
How to keep what you got.
In other words avoid scams, fraudulent investments and advice.

In light of all the recent economic downturns, investment schemes, and news about people loosing life savings; it is nice to see the SEC provide a site filled with valuable information and education regarding savings and investments.

They even have a section dedicated to retirements and seniors.

And it's all free. With no sign up, registration or anything except an Internet connection and your thirst for knowledge required.

The idea is simple.
The site well thought out and easy to navigate.
And fits in perfectly with their posted mission statement.

The mission of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is to protect investors, maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets, and facilitate capital formation.

As more and more first-time investors turn to the markets to help secure their futures, pay for homes, and send children to college, our investor protection mission is more compelling than ever.

Which is exactly what the SEC is supposed to do.

Well done.

Happy Trick or Treating !!!

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The Future is Now !!!

Pardon me while I bang my head!

Dan Snyder owns the Washington Redskins.
BANG
He is younger than me...
BANG
He owns a NFL Franchise worth over 1 Billion Dollars.
BANG
The last owner lived into his 80's and owned the Redskins for 30 years.
DOUBLE BANG Ouch!

I don't have a Billion Dollars, and Danny Boy is probably going to live a LONG LONG time.

I know how long 30 - 40 years is.

Just how long is a Billion?

About a billion minutes ago, the Roman Empire was in full swing. (One billion minutes is about 1,900 years.)

About a billion hours ago, we were living in the Stone Age. (One billion hours is about 114,000 years.)

About a billion months ago, dinosaurs walked the earth. (One billion months is about 82 million years.)

My head is beginning to hurt again...

When is Washington ever going to get relief from this ownership?

RELIEF?

Did I say Relief?

Hey, I seem to remember something about economic relief...

Now I know where to get a Billion plus dollars!

We need another Bail-Out !!!

A Redskin Bail-Out!

After all, it is just a drop in the bucket for the Feds.

Don't believe me?

Check this out...

Here is the Socialist plan...


























There is also a great capitalistic opportunity! Think of the marketing ploys, commercial possibilities and such from the corporate free enterprise market too!


























I sense a grass roots campaign starting...

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September Watch List - Results

OK, So not so bad this month.

Both my starting lineup and bench finished on the plus side.

And

Once again, my Bench topped my Starting lineup.

I did OK with my pick of CISG, I just wish I had picked it at the very beginning instead of waiting. OH well, still on the plus side for the month, so I can not complain...

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Take me off the list

Yet another reason two more reasons to not want season tickets and hate Snyder!!!

Selling tickets eligible for season ticket holders to brokers.







Screwing the fans and double dipping.









And here is a short interactive page detailing the money mongering events.

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Yuk...

Dog days of summer certainly wilted my August Watch lists.























At least I eeeked out a small monthly profit with PWRD and HGRD and for the year I am still quite a bit ahead of all the major indexes.

Lets see how well I do in September....

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Watch Out !!!

So it is earnings season...
The market is on a run up...
Many stocks are either hitting 52 week highs or experiencing recent 20%+ gains...
Life is good.... Right?

Well, maybe, maybe not...

This is a tough time of year to call the shots on stocks, especially with folks thinking we are starting to come out of the economic recession bottoms.

If you are following my monthly stock watch lists, you know that my bench has been beating my starting lineup.

So, one might be inclined to play those instead.
In fact, I was tempted to come up with said lists and then flip them; just to see what happened... But no I did not do that.

So without further delay, here are my August watch lists.






















STARTING LINEUP NOTES

ALKS - Alkermes Inc
May be nearing the end of 10 day sell off. Look for positive momentum
EGY - Vaalco Energy Inc
end of 10 day skid - might be poised to move upwards again.
GHM - Graham Corp
Good Economic Recovery stock - 20% run in last 2 weeks.
GIB - CGI Group Inc.
Good contract awards and quarterly report.
HGRD - Health Grades Inc
Recent high point activity with good qtrly report . Rocky ride but upwards movement
HRBN - Harbin Electric Inc
Recent drop due to selling of shares at 16 price range. Look for bounce back in about a week.
IIVI - II VI Inc
Another 20% recent rise stock and good bet for economic recovery - though not quite as cheep as the others…
JST - Jinpan International Ltd
another economic recovery play hitting 52 week highs - cup pattern - may hold flat until pop.
HSR - Hi Shear Technology Corp
Recent pop and settlement and expectations.
SEPR - Sepracor Inc
beat expectations upped guidance


BENCH NOTES

FUQI - Fuqi International Inc
Hiting resistance @ or near 25 mark. Watch to see if it breaks out or not.
BIDZ - Bidz com Inc
Jewelry retailer cooling off after recent run.
BKE - Buckle Inc. (The)
Has a huge short percentage.
BVF - Biovail Corp
Recent run - look for pull back or more pandemic hype
EGMI - Electronic Game Card Inc
Last time dropped after announcement - wait until after 6th. First found…February @ .5 now at 1.7 sheesh!
INMD - IntegraMed America Inc
interesting recent volatility - and increase in money flow… specializing in fertility treatments and clinics… maybe folks are wondering about Obama - supreme court - research etc…
PWRD - Perfect World Co Ltd
Another online gaming - research company from china that refuses to stop… hitting all time highs - again play at own risk
TSRA - Tessera Technologies Inc
If you want to play the earnings lottery, this might be a good bet…
TSS - Total System Services Inc.
great recent qtr
WFR - MEMC Electronic Materials Inc
wait for it to fall 16 ish

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July Updates - End of Month

I should probably title this DON'T DO WHAT I SAY !!!

Once again, my bench beat my starting lineup.

But on the up side, both my lineups once again beat both the DOW and NASDAQ monthly returns.

And to top it all off, I also kept a July MSN 50 list; which also lost to my lineups !!!

Nya Nya ;-)























Stay tuned for the August Watch Lists!!!

Oh, and just in case you could not tell...

It's football season once again ! Hurray !!!

GO SKINS !!!

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Idle Ramblings...

OK, so I was bored and idly surfing digg.com random selections.
I actually kind of like Digg.com for researching new, up and coming stories, and filtering content on my particular interests.

Well, this is what my idle random clicks came up with for this week.

A creative beggar...

















Economic truth and consequences...
















Elvis Grbac: Not as sexy as initially indicated...From Jeff Pearlman












One of my favorite all-time stories is about Elvis Grbac (left), Rich Gannon (right) and People Magazine’s Sexiest Men issue from 1998. It is both outlandish and 100-percent true.

Back in the day I knew many People staffers, and they were all cool, fun, intelligent—and woefully ignorant about sports. Every year, in planning the Sexiest Men issue, People’s editors would ask a bunch of us at Sports Illustrated for suggestions and insight. In 1998, for a reason I’ll never understand, they decided not to seek out help.

The magazine chose Rich Gannon as its Sexiest Athlete. At the time, Gannon was a member of the Kansas City Chiefs. Still a couple of seasons removed from his golden tenure with the Raiders, Gannon was 33, handsome and likable. In other words, a solid choice. Yet People, being People, simply informed the photographer assigned to the piece that the Sexiest Athlete was the Chiefs’ quarterback. Hence, he took pictures of the Chiefs’ quarterback. Well, one of the Chiefs’ quarterbacks: Elvis Grbac.

Yup.

The pictures made their way back to the New York offices, and editors were dumbfounded. This was their Sexiest Athlete? Yet upon learning the truth, no one with the magazine had the heart (guts?) to tell Grbac that an unfathomable mistake had been made. As a result, Elvis Grbac reigns as People’s 1998 Sexiest Athlete.

The article’s final line says it all: “His personality makes him sexy.”

Amen.

And a title that is funny, even if the article is not...

Texting Teen Falls Down Manhole















An interesting but, in my opinion, somewhat useless, ad campaign...

86-RedSox-Victoria-Secret






















Roller Skating taken to new heights...




Is this Mr. Stick or a member from a distant branch of the family...






And one I found a couple weeks ago all by myself... (sort of)...

So, You think it is easy to just stand up there and give a weather report...
A couple of inept Penguins prove otherwise...

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Obsessive Compulsive Disorder = Swoopo

Internet Shopping at it's best / worst...
These folks are fiendishly cunning.

Too bad I didn't think of it...

Oh yeah, I remember now...




Damn ethics, morals and basic good principles...

From: The Big Money By Mark Gimein
Sunday, July 12, 2009

Imagine for a second that you've set out to come up with an online shopping site that would take advantage of everything we know about consumer behavior.

Your goal is to separate people from their money as efficiently as possible. What would you do? You'd probably try to draw buyers in with bargain prices. You'd pit them against one another in an auction. You'd ask them to make snap decisions without taking much time to figure out just how much money they're spending. On top of that, you'd ask for only very small amounts of money at any one time, letting payments of a few cents build to hundreds of dollars.

But relax. Someone's beaten you to it: the folks at Swoopo.com. It's an online auction site that fiendishly plays on every irrational impulse buyers have to draw them in to what might be the crack cocaine of online shopping sites.



I discovered Swoopo through an online ad plugging its latest deal, a fancy desktop computer at more than 90 percent off. If you are already saying to yourself that there is a catch, you are right. Swoopo, which bills itself as an "entertainment shopping" site, combines the addictiveness of auctions and the chance of lotteries into what may be the most devious way to separate folks from their money yet devised.

At first glance, Swoopo.com -- which began in Germany as a phone and TV-based auction site called Telebid, migrated to the web as "Swoopo," and launched its U.S. site last year -- looks like an auction site patterned on eBay, with prices for most items starting at a penny and rising as members "bid" up the price. Like eBay, Swoopo has a full panoply of auction tools, such as comprehensive records of all completed auctions and an electronic bidding system ("Bid Butler") that will put in last-second bids to keep you in the auction. Unlike eBay, however, on Swoopo you pay 60 cents each time you make a bid.

Sixty cents? Sure doesn't sound like much when a $1,000-plus camera or computer is at stake. But consider the MacBook Pro that Swoopo sold recently for $35.86. Swoopo lists its suggested retail price at $1,799. But then look at what the bidding fee does. For each "bid," the price of the computer goes up by a penny, and Swoopo collects 60 cents. To get up to $35.86, it takes a stunning 3,585 bids -- and Swoopo gets its fee for each. That means that before selling this computer, Swoopo took in $2,151 in bidding fees. Yikes.

In essence, what your 60-cent bidding fee gets you at Swoopo is a ticket to a lottery, with a chance to get a high-end item at a ridiculously low price. With each bid, the auction is extended for a few seconds to keep it going as long as someone in the world is willing to take just one more shot. This can go on for a very, very long time. The winner of the MacBook Pro auction bid more than 750 times, accumulating $469.80 in fees.

What makes Swoopo so fiendishly compelling is the tendency of people to think of the bids that they have already put in as a "sunk cost" -- money that they have already put toward buying the item. This is an illusion. The fact that you have already bid 200 times does not mean that your chance of winning on the 201st bid is any higher than it was at the very beginning. A new bidder can come in at any time and at the cost of a mere 60 cents jump into the auction in which you've already spent more than $100. The money you've put in has gotten you no closer to the goal than a losing raffle ticket.

Some of the ideas behind Swoopo have been explored in a theoretical way by game theorists. The reluctance of bidders to say goodbye to their "sunk cost" has been explored by economists such as Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky -- and has been found to draw bidders deeper into the game. Swoopo plays off those insights to efficiently get people to make bad choices. It's the evil stepchild of game theory and behavioral economics.

Another irrational impulse Swoopo plays off of is an urge to believe that there must be some strategy that beats the system. As Swoopo's own business development director, Chris Bauman, told one blogger: "Winning takes two things: money and patience. Every person has a strategy." Indeed, they undoubtedly do. The problem is that none of those strategies will actually work. Just remember that no matter how many times you bid, your chance of winning does not increase. And the bigger Swoopo gets, the worse it will be. The more people sign on to bid, the lower your chances become -- and the more Swoopo collects in bidding charges. The only winning strategy is not to play in the first place.

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Body Guard Tryouts

In today's economy, there are more and more people who are learning new skill sets; re-tooling themselves for work in a new career.

Of course, some are more qualified than others...

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Fast Money

Not too long ago, a co-worker of mine went on vacation to the Carolina Coast. Along the way, he got a speeding ticket. As it turns out, states are issuing more speeding tickets. Not necessarily because people are speeding, they are, but not excessively. States are issuing more tickets because they generate revenue.

With the economy in a recession, real estate tanking; state budgets are taking a big hit. One way they have come up with to compensate is to issue more traffic violations and speeding tickets. In some cases, this activity is up more than 30%.

In fact, the officer who pulled him over in North Carolina, said that this is basically all he does all day long. And, it does not stop there. When Mike, my co-worker, called to try and settle and or schedule a court date, he got caught up in all the red tape and bureaucracy.

Seems he could schedule a court date, pay the fine and court fees and get excessive points added to his record; or, he could work the system, have the DA, who knows the officer, and county clerk, work out a deal where he could pay the fine, pay the lawyer, pay processing fees and effectively reduce the points on his license.

Of course all this cost money. So, a $75 dollar speeding ticket can get processed, paid, and recorded with no points against your record for a mere $300 dollars. That is supposedly worth avoiding the points, the time to drive back down to North Carolina, risk getting another speeding ticket, gas money, court fees and the hassle of driving all the way back.

Add to this that states such as Maryland have just approved measures to increase speeding cameras, not only at intersections, but in other residential, commercial areas; and one has the makings of legal extortion and efficient revenue collection by local and state municipalities.

So, it is of no wonder that in this economic turmoil, and increased law enforcement, that the table has been turned, for a price of course....

Cashing in on speed camera law.

In this article by the Washington Post, this company has developed a program that relays the location of speed cameras and traps, collects the GPS coordinates, and posts them to a web site and GPS service for publication and updates to subscribers.

A one year subscription of $40 will get you everything you need to know for avoiding these traps. $99 will get you a special introductory lifetime membership.

Oh, and the guy mentioned in the article, is the one who helped either invent or sell PhotoBlocker, a high-gloss formula in a can that customers sprayed onto license plates. It was designed to create a bright reflection that made the photo image difficult to read.

He also rolled out PhotoShield, a clear license plate cover with a similar purpose.

Find out more at PhantomAlert.com

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Paint the Town

If the energy secretary gets his way, we will all need a new pair of shades to shield our eyes from the glare.

I admit it is an interesting idea, to make everything white, cut back on global warming and all. But me personally, I like a little variety. To see the world as it is in all its glory and different colors and flavors.

But, all the government would have to do is issue another mandate for all roofing, building materials, and road surfaces to be of a paler color; and in 30 years we could all have a more Mediterranean feel to our neighborhoods.

All we need now is some palm trees and sand!

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,522411,00.html

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