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Sunday, April 19, 2009

Sometimes I just don’t follow my own advice…

OK, Time for my mid month stock review…

Once again, my bench is outperforming my starting line-up.

Though I am not complaining because it has, in general, been a really good month so far. Realize that these returns are actually for only 2 1/2 weeks.

The stock market overall is up with several consecutive weeks of gains. Of course this generates all the buzz about we’ve reached the bottom of the “recession” and it’s time to think about getting back in.

Well, I still think that the profit in the market is in the volatility and I am skeptical of all the buzz. Why, because, unemployment is still high AND rising, foreclosures are still happening, people (those still working) are still saving vs spending, and retail is still feeling the effects of the recession.

Case in point, we saw news this past week of a large commercial real estate company filing for chapter 11. This company ones many of the big name shopping malls all across the country. I fully expect to see more hits on the commercial side of the real estate market in the next several months.

Anyway, back to my watch list review…

Back at the beginning of the month I talked about companies on my lists which had good fundamentals and interesting chart patterns. MOS was one of the strongest fundamental companies and despite the economy seemed to be recovering from it’s last below expectation quarterly report. I also said that there had been hype back in Feb about a possible take over which for a while helped boost the stock.

NTES was on a tear up and was on rocket fuel, so I was expecting a pull back and possible drop for correction before considering buying this stock.

SCMP had been on a similar pattern and had self corrected back down. So I thought it ready to pop back up, but I was hesitant due to it being a volatile pharmacy company.

CSR was in the tail end of a cup and handle pattern but I did not like the smaller setups of it continuously hitting resistance and thought it might not break through for the final rise.

So, I went with the large fundamentally sound company MOS.

Well, they had yet another less than stellar quarterly report and even though the market wanted to push this higher, before the release, it just fell flat. So I ended up selling early last week for a paltry 3% gain.

Meanwhile NTES continued its rise, though it has slowed down quite a bit.
SCMP did exactly what I expected.
And CSR never did really fall or break through.

So, what did I do once I sold MOS?

I still do not like that NTES has not really pulled back a lot.

I am tempted by SCMP, but like NTES, think it might be at a point of cooling off after it’s latest break out of +40%. (but hey, I’ve been wrong before)…

And CSR was still waiting for a break out and with some of the major financial institutions report healthy news, and foreign markets looking like they might be turning around (financially) I took a chance that this would be enough “good news” to push it higher. So I bought CSR.

Maybe my advice is paying off… it has gone up 15% in the last 3 days!


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