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Thursday, April 2, 2009

April Watch Lists

Drum Roll Please....

Here are my choices for the April Watch List(s). Once again I had to narrow down a list of nearly 40 stocks to a manageable few. And once again I am going to see if my bench (cut list) does better than my starting line up.

For this post, I will be talking briefly about my active (starting line up) watch list.

OK so way back in February this stock saw a good run up due to merger and take over rumors. However, lets look at some of the basic fundamentals, trends of the company since then.

I will include some of the basic fundamentals that I look at for every company and as you can see below, MOS has (on paper) good rates of return, cash flow, employee interest and corporate earnings growth.

For the moment the stock seems to be trading within the $40 - $50 range and has held up well since the rumors stopped back in February. It is currently trading closer to the $40 mark, so this might be worth buying into.

Profit Margin (ttm): 27.26%
Operating Margin (ttm): 31.42%

Return on Assets (ttm): 22.98%
Return on Equity (ttm): 54.10%

% Held by Insiders1: 64.39%
% Held by Institutions1: 26.40%

Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 36.90%

Market Cap (intraday)5: 19.50B
Enterprise Value (1-Apr-09)3: 17.26B Total Debt (mrq): 1.41B
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): N/A
Current Ratio (mrq): 3.451
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 17.672001

Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 5.57
Forward P/E (fye 31-May-10) 1: 7.02
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 0.69

Operating Cash Flow (ttm): 2.51B
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): 1.18B

First Solar, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of solar electric power modules using a proprietary thin film semiconductor technology.
This stock got absolutely knocked down in February and made a nice come back during March.
It is a strong company in a speculative field and has been bouncing all over the place between $100 and $150’s since October.
It’s currently trading around $135 so I think I will wait to see if it drops below $125 before considering it.

China Security & Surveillance Technology, Inc. (CSST) is engaged, through its indirect Chinese subsidiaries, in the manufacturing, distributing, installing, and servicing of surveillance and safety products and systems and developing surveillance, and safety related software in China. The Company’s customers include governmental entities, such as customs agencies, courts, public security bureaus, and prisons; non-profit organizations, including schools, museums, sports arenas, and libraries, and commercial entities, such as airports, hotels, real estate, banks, mines, railways, supermarkets, and entertainment venues. CSST operates primarily in five segments: Installation Segment, Manufacturing Segment, Distribution Segment, Software Segment, and Service Segment.

OK this one has my interest because I see a couple REALLY interesting patterns.

First one: Potential Cup and Handle

In the traditional pattern, after the cup part forms there is generally another much smaller up and down pattern which forms the handle part before breaking out in an upward pattern.

Second one: Potential Triple Top

The trading pattern over the past 5 days has resembled this pattern more than one I might expect as part of the "cup and handle". The triple top pattern generally signals a reversal in pattern direction when the price tries unsuccessfully to break through a top level resistance point three times before falling.

Given the fact that I generally have a love to hate and hate to love relationship with china stocks and the potential for this price point to fall before it goes up, I think I will avoid it for now.

I just found these patterns really cool.

NTES, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates an online community in China. It operates in three segments: Online Game Services (MMORPG’s), Advertising Services, and Wireless Value-added Services.

This stock has seen a huge run up in March and I am waiting for it to pull back down for a while before jumping in to invest. Of course, it could just keep running up and I could be wrong.

Is a specialized semiconductor company that looks like it could be settling into a trading range between $28 and $34 dollars. Currently trading closer to $28 - $30 range which is worth a watch and possible entry for trading.

Sucampo Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a pharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of drugs based on prostones. It develops prostones for the treatment of gastrointestinal, respiratory, vascular, and central nervous system diseases and disorders.

For a small pharma company, it is doing quite well. It has had 3 straight years of reported profitability.

Like NTES it has had a good recent rise and (like I anticipate for NTES) has recently pulled back and may be ready for another rebound.

Techwell, Inc., a semiconductor company, engages in the design, marketing, and sale of mixed signal integrated circuits for multiple video applications in the security surveillance, automotive, consumer, and personal computer (PC) markets worldwide.

It has had decent financial reports for todays economy and has been on one or two of my previous watch lists so I decided to keep it on this one to see how it continues.

Another company from a previous watch list which has done well lately. They have a unique financial business model which is not affected by the fall out of today's financial community.

It seems to be setting up an upward trading trend between $12 and $16. I may jump back in on the next downward cycle.


Doug April 2, 2009 at 7:32 PM  

Update to this - Wow Market has really taken off the last couple days. I kept flip flopping between buying MOS and (believe it or not) CSR. I finally decided on MOS so we will see what it does. BTW I was right about SCMP ready to pop back up. It shot up 20% in 3 days! Oh well too bad I didn't run my screens earlier...

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