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Saturday, January 15, 2011

An Important Announcement

Tomorrow, Sunday January 16th is my two year anniversary for my blog.

Over this time I have shared lots of experiences, made lots of new friends and considered myself lucky to have had the chance to do this.

And believe me, if given the chance I would definitely do it all over again and highly recommend blogging to anyone who has even remotely considered running a blog.

So, after 639 posts in 730 days, lots of soul searching and contemplating everything that I really want to try and accomplish, I have made a momentous decision . . .





I am moving my blog to its own domain and Wordpress platform !

Ha! Bet you thought I was going to say I’m quitting . . .

Sorry, no such luck ;-)

Hopefully everything (auto redirections and feed updates) will go smoothly but just in case, here is the new URL.

http://www.fumbledreturns.com/

See you all there !

Read more...

Friday, January 14, 2011

Jets vs Patriots


















Credit where credit is due: Stolen Borrowed from Nigel Buggers on Facebook who probably borrowed it from somebody else who probably . . .



And, I'm still standing by my "P" bowl prediction of no birds and Pittsburgh vs Packers.

Read more...

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Choosing Sides

I remember all the times we played a pickup game as kids, whether it was dodge ball, baseball, football, basketball, street hockey, whatever . . . there was always the drama of who was going to be captain, who was going to be picked on what team (AKA – they like me) and who was going to be the last person standing (they think I suck).

This year the NHL All-Star hockey game is taking this format. Instead of one conference against the other, it is a dose of evolutionary pecking order, dominance, favoritism and last and definitely least, which All-Star sucks.

I love it.

Read more...

Monday, January 10, 2011

Coal Play








Coal is:
- the largest source of energy for the generation of electricity worldwide.
- the largest worldwide source of carbon dioxide emissions.
- a major contributor to environmental destruction and it’s by products from production can be hazardous to both people and the environment.

- A good stock play.

Why?
- One, it is relatively inexpensive to mine.
- Two, developing countries, usually strapped with cash and investment capital, need it to generate electricity and further develop and sustain their economy.

Today, one of the biggest players in the coal market is China. The United States and former Soviet Union have the largest reserves, followed by China and Asia and associated Oceana areas.

This sets up a few very interesting plays on coal.

- One is obviously the demand for Coal through out the world and the increasing demand for it in China and the rest of developing Asia. This would mean taking a look at some of the major Coal producing and selling companies.

- Secondly, since Coal is in such demand and yet has obvious environmental impacts, the business of making Coal production ‘Greener’ should also see increased demand.

- Third and last but not least is the obvious transport of said Coal around the world.

According to Peabody Energy, "Coal's best days are ahead," fueled in part by exports of coal from the Powder River Basin in Montana and Wyoming that Portland General Electric taps for its Boardman plant. Peabody has also been looking to establish a new West Coast terminal to aid in expanding exports.

Among the better Coal energy stocks to look at are:

Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU)
Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP)
Puda Coal Inc. (PUDA)
Arch Coal Inc. (ACI)

Another interesting play on coal, mining and the natural resource field of investments in the Asia and South Pacific region is:

BHP Billiton Limited (BHP)

This diversified natural resource company in Australia has been particularly impacted, as have many Australia Companies, by the recent floods and in my mind is presenting an opportunity to buy in at a discounted price.

Since Coal production is so prevalent and in such good demand, it also stands to reason that finding new and better ‘Greener’ ways to produce it would also be in demand. One such stock popped up on my January watch lists.

Sino Clean Energy Inc (SCEI).

If you are looking for more diversification, perhaps less risk and exposure to potential alternative and clean energy plays within the Coal industry you can look at investing in an ETF such as (KOL).

As I mentioned before, obtaining the coal to sell to the world is one play. The other is transporting it around the world. In order to do this you need a fleet of cargo ships.

Some of the stocks and ETF that come to mind for this are:

DryShips, Inc. (DRYS)
Claymore/Delta Global Shipping (SEA)


Disclaimer: Currently invested in SCEI.

Read more...

Saturday, January 8, 2011

Falling Birds


Call it a sign.











But with all the birds dropping from the skies unexpectedly.

My fumbled prediction is no winning bird teams in the playoffs.

Read more...

Friday, January 7, 2011

The Future is Here

This app alone just might convince me to get an iphone.






Unlike almost every sports app out there, Pre Play doesn’t just give you scores and stats – you can play along, and here’s how:

Every button represents a possible outcome for the next play. If you press RUN<5 you are predicting a run of less than five yards for the next play.

So let’s say you pressed Run < 5 and you’re right. How many points do you get? Well, that depends on how risky your guess was. If it was 3rd & 1 at the time of your guess, you’ll probably only get a few points because that was an obvious choice. But if you predicted a Touchdown when the offense was 80 yards from the endzone, you’d score big! And if you’re wrong, that’s a standard –10 pts.

How do we tell which outcomes are obvious and which ones aren’t, you ask? The Pre Play Sports scoring system scans 120,000 historical plays and looks at exactly how probable your guess was to happen based on historical plays just like it.

But what if you make a guess and the next play is a penalty, timeout, fumble, or some other crazy thing that can happen in a game that we don’t have a button for? No need to worry, this won’t affect your score in any way. The same goes if you decide to sit out a few plays.

On 3rd Down, the game screen changes. The prediction is whether the offense will get a 1st Down or the defense will hold them to a 4th Down.

Last, but not least, you can make predictions for KICKOFF and PUNT RETURNS if you’re playing on v1.4 or later! Use the slidebar to predict where you think the ball will be after the return.

They even have pre play leagues.

Check them out at PrePlaySports.com

Read more...

Thursday, January 6, 2011

NFL Chatter

Just in case you have not been overloaded with social media ....

Via Twitters Facebook page...

It’s time for the @NFL playoffs, and they are sure to generate more Twitter conversation than ever before. And, this year, the teams and players, themselves will have lots to say. All 12 playoff teams and a full one-third (200+) of the players in the playoffs have Twitter accounts.

To help you keep up with these teams and players, we created a list of Twitter accounts relevant to the playoffs. You can follow @drewbrees and the @Official_Saints as they try to repeat as World Champions or @MikeVick of the @eagles as he continues his comeback. The list also includes folks like @JimIrsay, owner of the @NFLColts, and @PeteCarroll, coach of the @Seahawks.

You also can receive Tweets via SMS on your phone even if you don’t have a Twitter account or a smartphone. Just text “follow [username]” - for example “follow Packers” - to 40404 in the US.

For a rolled up version of NFL Playoff tweets click here.

But just don't expect to see any activity within 90 minutes of game time. . .

What a stupid rule...

Read more...

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

6 and 10

How important is one game?

The Redskins finished 6 – 10. So did the Vikings and the Lions. Because of obscure tie breaker rules, we have the 10th pick in the first round for 2011 draft.

Once we were eliminated from the playoffs, and Grossman became the starter, folks were basically saying two things. (no, not that! – this is a PG rated blog)

First:

"We’re playing for draft position"

Or

Second:
"We’re playing for pride and spots on the team next year"


The first implies that we want to lose in order to get a better draft pick.
The second implies that somebody wants to be here next year and contribute.

Usually I hate folks who say the first statement. Because that usually also means quitters. And personally, I hate quitters.

But when looking at the draft order and team records; and I see that one game meant moving from the number 10 spot to 6. Or in the case of the Vikings and the Lions: from 12 or 13 to 6. Does losing one game become worth it? Is pride and position still more important?

A top 5 or 6 spot in the draft is pretty important and valuable.
Perhaps good enough to get yourself “the player” or, more importantly for the Skins (IMHO) to trade down for a couple extra picks and still get good and much needed position player(s).

It will definitely be an interesting offseason and draft.

What do you think?

Read more...

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

MVP to MVCT

While I was reflecting back on 2010 and working on my 2011 goals, one topic I came across made me think. Where are they now?

We all know the story of Michael Vick, College Standout, Top Draft Pick, Top tier QB, Dog Fighting Ring Leader, Convict, Reformed Convict, NFL QB, and the latest chapter MVP. No matter what anybody says, for or against, that is a pretty remarkable life.

Well, he is also MVCT.

Most Valuable Chew Toy!










Last year as part of my Mutt Madness Contest the winner got a MVCT (I just realized that it also stands for Michael Vick Chew Toy!) Well, we of course ordered an extra one for our dogs as well.

So, what sort of life has the chew toy had?

I must say, that the hounds have loved him to death!






Greyhounds tend to like soft squishy and squeaky toys better, but both or foster greyhound Lola (above) and Hero teamed up to finally finish him off for good by the end of 2010.


















Maybe for 2011 we can find one that squeaks when you bite him . . .

Read more...

Sunday, January 2, 2011

A New Year and a New Watch List !

Every single one of my Starting Lineup has seen some fall off either from recent highs or falling out of favor. All I believe represent an opportunity to buy in before the stock either breaks back out or continues its upward momentum.








Starting Lineup
CNU Continucare Corp.
CRIC China Real Estate Information Corp
INTC Intel Corp
MCD McDonald's Corp
MRVL Marvell Technology Group Ltd
NEP China North East
NEWN New Energy Systems Group
NPD China Nepstar Chain Drugstore Ltd
RDA RDA MICROELECTRONICS, INC.
SCEI Sino Clean Energy Inc


Each stock on my Bench represents either a slightly riskier play due to playing momentum or the stock is currently stuck or still out of favor. A still out of favor stock would be CSCO which has been totally beating up by a bad quarterly report and forecast. Du Pont, on the other hand is such a big conglomerate that it represents a good play for both a recovering world economy and exposure to some more innovative developments such as solar power shingles which do not require any other special installation. Others such as Walgreens were on my previous starting lineup and I believe still have good potential, but I am making room for some new upstarts on my starting lineup.

Bench
ADES ADA-ES Inc
CSCO Cisco Systems Inc
DD E I Du Pont De Nemours And Company
GFRE Gulf Resources Inc
HRBN Harbin Electric Inc
MSFT Microsoft Corp
PZG Paramount Gold and Silver Corp
SPPI Spectrum Pharmaceuticals Incorporated
UTA Universal Travel
WAG Walgreen Co

My practice squad is basically all the other stocks which made it through my screens and filters that still represent interesting yet even riskier plays. They too are worth a look as investment opportunities, but I feel safer watching for either a better buy in price or I don’t trust the current pattern yet.


Practice Squad
AFOP Alliance Fiber Optic Products Inc
CEPH Cephalon
CIZN Citizens Holding Co
COHN Cohen & Company I
CVU CPI Aerostructures Inc
ESGR Enstar Group Limi
ISSC Innovative Solutions And Support Inc
JASO JA Solar Holdings
NYMX Nymox Pharmaceutical Corporation
PTX Pernix Therapeutics Holdings Inc

Read more...

Better late than never

My 2011 Goals.

You'll notice not one of them is being on time ;-)







1) Eliminate Non Housing Debt

I gave this one a good start in 2010 but ran into some added expenses which set me back.
I have a monthly plan in place and I am going to stick with it. Hopefully I will be able to put a much bigger dent into my balance this year. Knock on wood . . .





2) Beat Averages

Last year I increase my return average 50% to set a new goal. That was ambitious. For 2010 I did beat all the averages but feel short of the 24% mark. If I increase my 20% return by 50% that would push my goal up to 30%. That is a bit too ambitious even for me. This year I am going to keep my “beat the averages” goal with a stretch goal of 24%.

3) Cut Expenses by 10%

One way to increase savings and add to paying off debt is by taking a long hard look at your expenses and “cutting the fat” as they say.

We currently do “OK” but I know we can do better. Especially in the area of finding and shopping for deals. Some of the phenomenal success stories of the past year has been the rise of sites like Goupons and Couponmom. This year I am going to take a more serious look at saving with coupons and actively look to “trim the fat” from our daily / monthly expenses.

4) Double followers

I currently have 24.
I’m actually going to split this one out to 36 followers with a stretch goal of 48.





5) Win Fantasy Football

I came oh so close to this but fell short in the end.
I may never actually accomplish this but hey, I’m keeping up the hope and the goal.
OK lets split this one too:

- East Coast wins the championship
- With a stretch goal of me winning.


6) Fence and Shed clean out Garage!

A few months ago, one of my favorite shows – Criminal Minds – had a quote at the end of the show regarding a statistic which stated before 1960, there were virtually no personal storage units in the US. Today, there is more than 2.35 billion square feet of self storage in the U.S., or a land area equivalent to three times Manhattan Island under roof. It seems that the U.S. certainly has become the land of excess sometimes and personally I would like to do my part in reversing that trend.

Now, we are nowhere near as bad as compulsive hoarders or anything like that, but like many people we have “collected stuff” over the years. Stuff we probably do not need nor use or even know exist anymore.

Welcome to my garage.

Part 1 of this goal is to declutter my life and garage. The decluttering should help in finances, free time and finally getting at least one of our cars into the garage.

Part 2 of this goal: Putting a shed in the backyard will help with storing outside yard tools and stuff like bikes and sleds.

Part 3 of this goal: Putting up a fence will help with keeping said shed stuff from finding little feet and ending up cluttering the neighbors yards and provide our dogs some true running room.

Speaking of dogs . . .

7) Get Lola a Forever Home

My daughter, Alaina, will hate me for putting this up here, but hey, maybe it will ultimately inspire her to add a 2011 goal for herself.

Lola is our current resident foster greyhound.

Current Resident, because she has been here about 7 weeks. This is almost an all time record for us keeping a foster before getting him or her adopted.

Foster because she is a foster, which means the intent is to find her a forever home (other than ours).


As you can see, she is a very cute black and white greyhound. And trust me she is very affectionate and playful and will make a good addition to any home.

Her original racing name was Rico's Hailey and though many greyhound agencies frown on renaming a foster we took that liberty because, well, she simply was not a Hailey or Rico.

We tossed around several potential names like Betty; if you are familiar with Ram Jam or Leadbelly you will know the reference, but thought it better to avoid potentially politically incorrect names for a black dog. Lola seemed to be a name that she responded well to and, well, it makes for one or two rather good Kinks songs too.

Oh, There is just one little caveat.

There seems to be a condition which has come up recently that says if Alaina gets a job, she can keep Lola as a pet. Hmmmm – I wonder who came up with that one. So, perhaps Alaina will add getting a job to her 2011 goals. This will go a long way towards giving her some much needed money, added responsibility and convincing me to actually keep Lola.

But until then . . .

Please contact the Virginia Greyhound Adoption Society for more information.

Read more...

Saturday, January 1, 2011

Happy New Year and Top Ten of 2010

First of all: I hope everyone has had, is having, and will have a Happy New Year!

Reflecting on what has happened over the course of 2010, one of the things I looked at was my blog.

I have been keeping Google Analytics running on for this site for quite some time and I also noticed that blogger itself has started doing the same thing.

I love looking at statistics. People think they are unbiased, but they are not.
I look at them kind of like quotes. You can use them to point out or prove just about anything you want.

But what struck me as interesting about both Google Analytics and Blogspot Stats is both the similarities and differences. This was especially interesting because I thought Google bought out Blogger. I would have thought they would use the same methodology for collecting statistics. But obviously they do not.

So in the spirit of sports, more specifically the AP Poll and the Coaches Poll and the BCS Poll, all of which I often find equally baffling; here is my Top 10 Fumbled Returns Posts.

First, Google Analytics Top Ten

Rank -- Page -------------------------- Views
1) ---- The conditioning test --------- 3035
2) ---- Dog Gone Spies ---------------- 261
3) ---- Three Cheers for Health Care -- 104
4) ---- An Educated Investor ---------- 89
5) ---- Impersonation ----------------- 85
6) ---- Leap Frog Commentary ---------- 84
7) ---- NFL Stocks -------------------- 72
8) ---- Ready Set Go ------------------ 63
9) ---- Mutt Madness ------------------ 58
10)---- Last but not least ------------ 57

Second, Blogger Stats

Rank -- Page -------------------------- Views
1) ---- Conditioning Test ------------- 3,920
2) ---- Leap Frog Commentary ---------- 416
3) ---- Dog Gone Spies ---------------- 357
4) ---- Impersonation ----------------- 266
5) ---- An Educated Investor --------- 181
6) ---- Last but not least ------------ 132
7) ---- NFL Stocks - Revisited -------- 110
8) ---- New Plays --------------------- 65
9) ---- Randy Moss, Brett Favre and Jenn Sterger - 55
10) --- I want ------------------------ 45

Obviously I have to thank Fat Albert Haynesworth and the Washington Redskins for the inspiration and SI.com Extra Mustard for accepting my submission. They are the real reason for the surge in views for that particular post.

All the expert Bloggers say quality is better than quantity when it comes to blogging but, as we all know, a viral video or two doesn't hurt either.

These stats can be pretty good for looking at key words and where the viewing traffic comes from; Like some of my referring sites Snot Bubble Football, Life with Dogs (blog hop), Networked Blogs, Facebook; but I'd also like to ask anybody who happens to be reading this if their favorite post is listed and what they like most and least about my blog.

So go ahead, let'er rip, I can take it.

I'm actually contemplating some changes and my asking here helps with my decisions and my upcoming soon to be posted 2011 goals.

Thanks for helping make my year of blogging fun and interesting and hope you all stick around for 2011.

As always, be good, do well, have fun.

Read more...

Friday, December 31, 2010

Reflecting on Goals

In keeping with the traditions of reflecting on the past year, setting resolutions goals; I present you the following...

FINAL 2010 R.A.P. (Resolution Accountability Page)

Actually, to restate, I make my resolutions in the form of measurable and (hopefully) achievable goals.

So, How did I do?

1) Eliminate non housing debt.













As you can see, the scuba dude is still swimming....

I did not do nearly as well as I had hoped but OK. The big dip in the summer was a new AC and Furnace. After nearly 20 years the AC finally gave up and we were faced with a huge decision and expense. For a brief moment the cheapskate in me thought, we can tough it out. We don't need no stinking AC. The human race survived for thousands of years without it, we can too.

WRONG! After a couple days of nearly 100 degree heat and humidity I was convinced that those crazy ideas were, well, Crazy.

There is a bit of good news in getting a new AC and Furnace. It is more efficient than the old, which means we should save on utility bills, and it qualifies for the Green Housing tax deduction.

Also, you may notice that my chart, despite the sudden dip, appears to basically rise in somewhat equal increments. This is because I tried to dedicate an automatic amount each month to go towards eliminating that debt.

Usually this is best done through automatic transfers, and if one can do it via payroll deductions, so much the better because then you never have the chance to miss a payment towards your goal.

The tricky part is budgeting well enough to do just that. It is not easy, but definitely possible; for everyone!

2) Beat all DJIA, NASDQ, S&P averages with my investment income and do at least 50% better than the 16 % return I had this year. That means 24% annual return.

Me +20%
S&P +13%
DJIA +11%
NASD +18%

Well, I did not reach my 24% goal, but I came close, did better than last years 16% return, and I did beat all the averages.

You know, maybe, just maybe I can do this individual investor thing after all.


3) Sports and Fantasy Football.
Conspire/Rig/Cheat as commish To have the east coast win back the Borderless League Fantasy Football Trophy next year. Oh wait, Conspire/Rig/Cheat as commish, would not be very fair and ethical, so I’ll just put down that I will make the playoffs and the East Coast will win the Championship next year.

Well, I may never reach this goal completely. :-(
I did make the playoffs but the East Coast lost yet again.
In fact, Yanni won for the second time in a row.
I did make it into the Championship game but thanks to Atlanta and Philly playing below expectations, I came up short in this ultimate fantasy goal.

4) Double the number of people following my blog. I currently have 10 listed.

I now have 24 listed so, baring a sudden mass exodus, I think I made this one.

5) I’m starting a web site dedicated to donating to charities and activities that are most important to me and my family. Specifically The American Cancer Society, and Greyhound and Veterinary Research.

Well, technically I did do this one in that I started it and got it up and running and I did achieve my goal of donating to charities. It just proved to be exceeding difficult to successfully promote that site so about half way through the year I changed it to an EBAY entity that donates proceeds to the charities.

That method proved to be more successful so I think I will stick with the EBAY donations going forward.


Coming Soon:

My 2010 Top Ten
Update on NFL Stocks
My 2011 Goals !!!

Read more...

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Thinking Outside Pandora’s Box

Amazon (AMZN) has patented a new return process.

“So what” you say.

Well, consider the following:






What if I said you could not only find out what gifts others are getting you, but you could then “return” those gifts before they were ever sent!

Or, if you could set up some sort of rule that tells Amazon to always return or exchange for a gift certificate any gift that your dear old (insert random friend or relative here) happens to send you.

You could even set up a rule to send an ecard thank you note for the gift that was ordered but never received.

From a business perspective, this is great!

From a personalized “I was thinking of you and got you this gift because I like you” perspective, this is not so great.

After all, anybody who has kids, was a kid or even still is a kid, knows the importance of gift giving and making others feel good. You know, “it’s always better to give than to receive” and giving gifts helps show others that you care and are thinking of them. And this is a good thing.

But, according to some studies, up to 30% of all gifts are returned. This represents a huge amount of time, effort and expense that people and businesses have to deal with.

Imagine, from a financial business point of view, if you could come up with a way to save up to 30% of the costs associated with everyday business processes; From packaging, mailing, shipping and receiving, transacting and refunding; your bosses and stock holders would love you.

And probably get you a gift . . . ;-)

But here is another financial thought. . .

Would those potential amazon stock holders continue to be so happy if they were also stock holders of UPS or FedEx?

If we are talking about 30% of all gifts returned, then it could be safe to assume, especially with large online e-retailers such as Amazon, that for every 100 gifts shipped via UPS and FedEx, 30 are shipped back. With this new process, we could be talking about a lot less business for the shipping industry.

Or back to the whole gift giving and return process. . .

What if you are like us and do a lot of online shopping and have the gifts sent to yourself so that you know it arrives in good condition, wrap it, and personally give the gift to your intended recipient? Would you want that person to know ahead of time? And stop the shipment?

Or if you saw that you were going to be getting a sweater you really did not like but knew that you would be at that persons house party next week and "the right thing to do" would be to wear it in a show of appreciation.

Would "returning" it before it even shipped be appropriate?

I actually like the fact that Amazon is thinking outside the box and being creative and looking for new ways to do things.

This new patented return process has a lot of good, and bad, potential. Like most new inventions, it will be all in the way it is used that will ultimately determine it’s usefulness and impact.

What do you think? Good, Bad or indifferent?

You can find out about Amazon's new patented return process here.

The inspiration for this post can be found here at the Washington Post .

Read more...

Monday, December 27, 2010

The Longest Championship Game

The 1971 AFC Divisional Playoff Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Miami Dolphins, played on Christmas day, didn’t end until halfway through a second overtime period. The marathon game lasted eighty-two minutes and forty seconds.

That is nothing!

Nothing compared to this Christmas Championship Weekend in Fantasy Football !!!

This championship weekend is going to last 5 days!

Thanks to a classic Nor'Easter snow storm / blizzard and the postponement the Sunday Night Football game to Tuesday.

It started last Thursday evening with Pittsburgh Steelers and is not scheduled to end until this Tuesday with the Philadelphia Eagles.

As of this point in time, I am 31 points behind. Tonight’s Monday Night Football game between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints will help decide my fate in this championship game. I still have Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and DeSean Jackson yet to play. He has David Akers.

It would be a lot closer, and I would feel a lot more confident in my comeback potential, if I had not kept the Dallas D in there instead of the Ravens. How they could absolutely clean up on the Skins for 18 points last week and totally #@!$ this week against an equally bad and sack / turnover prone team is beyond me.

I know I am not alone in this extended suspense filled championship game lasting so long. There are lots of other leagues and teams having their championship this week.

But this is the only one I really care about and I wish my opponent would just get it over and forfeit now ;-).

Seriously though, this has been a really wild and crazy and exciting fantasy football year and having the championship come down to the wire like this is why we all love this so much.

I wouldn’t have it any other way.

Read more...

An Educated Investor?














There is a marketing ad by SYMS that states “An educated consumer is our best customer”.

The theory behind this is that an educated consumer would know value and quality when they see and hear it and know to come to SYMS for the best advice and deals.

Does this also hold true in the investing world?

Is an educated investor the best investor?

This time of year you can search countless sites and articles about what to invest in for the coming year.

There are plenty of “experts” out there who give advice. Some, well - actually most, give some sort of value added education to their customers so that they can make informed decisions and realize that they are getting valuable, quality, investment ideas from “the pros”.

But how good are the experts?

And

Can an individual investor do just as well or even better?

Well, since I am NOT a psychic and can NOT predict the future, I can NOT tell you how well these “experts” will do in 2011.

But, I can tell you how well they did, and did not, do in 2010.

I searched for 2010 stock picks from various sites and came up with a fairly diverse list of expert picks and their results for 2010.


Editor Paul Goodwin -17.73%
E-House China(EJ)-20.21%
Gafisa(GFA)-15.24%

Alan Gayle -14.15%
Adobe Systems (ADBE) -15.83%
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) -19.03%
Microsoft (MSFT) -7.58%

Editor Byron King -5.61%
Cameco (CCJ) 20.68%
Gammon Gold (GRS) -31.90%

Newsletter Sound Advice +0.70%
Boston Scientific (BSX) -13.09%
Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) 14.49%

Marc Johnson +3.11%
McDonald's (MCD) 22.86%
Medtronic (MDT) -16.64%

Kiplingers +4.85%
UPS (UPS) 25.01%
Kimberly-Clark (KMB) -1.66%
PepsiCo (PEP) 7.35%
Paychex (PAYX) -1.06%
Western Union (WU) -4.40%
Sysco (SYY) 3.01%
Chevron (CVX) 16.10%
Broadridge (BR) -5.59%

Howard Ruff +5.76%
Barrick Gold (ABX) 26.86%
Rydex Inverse S&P 500 Strategy Fund (RYURX) -15.33%

Chris Temple +6.22%
Matrix Service (MTRX) 11.00%
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP) 1.44%

editor John Buckingham +9.20%
Palomar Medical Technologies (PMTI) 33.04%
Navios Maritime (NM) -14.63%

Channing Smith +15.39%
Yum Brands (YUM) 41.46%
Procter & Gamble (PG) 6.77%
Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) -0.26%
PetSmart (PETM) 51.55%
CarMax (KMX) 33.01%
Quest Diagnostics (DGX) -10.14%
McKesson (MCK) 12.49%
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) -11.77%

Mike Avery +20.70%
Monsanto (MON) -19.77%
Apple (AAPL) 51.53%
Nike (NKE) 30.34%
Value Line Survey 21.81%
American Tower (AMT) 16.19%
Weight Watchers International (WTW) 27.43%

Rich Howard +31.92%
DuPont (DD) 46.03%
Barrick Gold (ABX) 26.86%
Newmont Mining (NEM) 22.86%

Jerry Jordan +32.49%
National Oilwell Varco (NOV) 46.54%
Halliburton (HAL) 31.25%
PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA) 19.68%

The Street.com +33.29%
Amazon.com (AMZN) 34.01%
Comcast (CMCSA) 31.94%
Microsoft (MSFT) -7.58%
Red Hat (RHT) 49.06%
Research In Motion (RIMM) -13.88%
VMware (VMW) 106.18%

Editor Dan Sullivan +42.23%
Massey Energy (MEE) 24.97%
Teck Resources (TCK) 59.49%

Editor George Putnam +51.04%
US Airways Group (LCC) 105.58%
Global Crossing (GLBC) -3.50%

The overall average for all these sample experts is 14%. Not too shabby. But some, obviously did better than others.

This chart does tell us that some of the experts did quite well in choosing stocks that would perform well over the whole course of the year. A pretty amazing feat considering how volatile the stock market was in 2010.

What this chart does not tell you is that some of the experts who seemingly got it wrong, really did have it right, but just not for the whole year.

Hint: this is where the education comes into play . . .

Couple cases in point:

RIMM: A well run tech company that fell out of favor from April – September, mostly due to the advancement of the competitions “smart phones” and even a couple political land minds from countries who wanted access to the secure transmissions and threatened to ban sales of RIMM products. Good companies who also by the way have market share will successfully navigate these land mines and down trends in sentiment and eventually “surprise” the market and come back into favor. This “out of favor” slide sent the stock from a high of $75 in March to $45 in September. I believe the analyst in picking RIMM as an investment for 2010 said something along the lines that it was too smart and agile of a company which also happened to “invent the smart phone” to permanently fall to the competition.
Well, that analyst was and is correct and the company has since surprised the market with good reports, new popular products and a reasonably strong future and now sits at a price of about $60. That is a 30% return up from its low point. Yet for the year, the stock and analyst seemingly got it wrong with a -13% YTD return.

UUP: A fund that rises and falls based on the strength or weakness of the dollar. The analyst recommending this stock for 2010 had it exactly right and , unlike this chart, an educated investor would have made a decent profit by following his advice. You see, he saw a short term uptrend in this dollar index fund but recommended selling once it got near the high 20’s. And low and behold, that is exactly what happened. The fund rose from $23 to $26 during the first six months of 2010 then fell back down to where it is today.

So, what sets a good investor apart from a bad investor?

Education.

The more you learn about how the market works, what makes a company a good company or bad company or even a good company out of favor, the more you can make educated decisions and hopefully good decisions on investments.

Unlike year end stock predictions, where the last 12 month results of a particular company is passively listed, educated investing is an active process.

Are you or the experts going to get it right all the time? No. Are you and the experts going to make mistakes? Yes. Are you and the experts going to get it right some of the time? YES!

The important thing is to study and watch the market. Learn from your mistakes as well as your successes.

An educated investor may not be the best investor, but he or she will be a smarter investor and actively involved with the market instead of passively investing in yearly expert lists.

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Saturday, December 25, 2010

A Christmas Thought














With all the headlines filled with topics of war, threats of terrorism, corruption and such;
I’d like to wish everyone two simple wishes not only now but for the coming year;
OK, and every year after that one too!

Peace on Earth and Good Will towards Men.

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Friday, December 24, 2010

A Little Christmas Humor















A Russian couple looked out their window Christmas Eve and the wife said, “Look Rudi, it’s going to snow!”

“No” said the husband, “it is going to rain.”

Wife: “It’s cold and windy outside. It’s going to snow I tell you.”

Husband: “No dear, it’s going to rain.”

Wife: “Rudolph, how can you say that?”

Husband: “Because, Rudolph, the Red, knows rain. Dear.”

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Thursday, December 23, 2010

Can you teach an old dog new tricks?


















Back in April of 2010 I posted this post " Holy QB Pass Batman "

Among other things, I talked about the “system” and having the right players for “the system”.

Folks have talked about the Redskins defense all season. About how we had/have excellent 4-3 players but they seem out of sync in a 3 – 4.

It now appears that perhaps Donovan was “out of sync” with the new system.

In a Washington Post Article "Rex Grossman might not be a star, but he might be what Mike Shanahan wants" Thomas Boswell makes the following points.

The Shannies want a strict "system quarterback," someone who improvises only as a last resort, not as an agreeable alternative. They want someone who reads the field deep-to-middle-to-short, not short-to-medium-to-deep as McNabb did in Philly. In short, they don't want the kind of quarterback McNabb has been all his life.

Grossman seems to understand the Redskins' offense better than McNabb, run it more quickly, end up in the right play more often, go through his reads deeper and step up in the pocket as asked. He doesn't have McNabb's arm strength, ability to rip away from rushers to make plays, nor his career-long ability (until this year) to avoid interceptions.


Was Donovan a mistake?

Some are now saying that Shanahan, in his de facto GM role, wasted so much time and money, plus draft picks, with his McNabb mistake.

Other say,
"Not so fast." Grossman next faces two teams in playoff contention, not the Cowboys, who have given up more than 30 points eight times and rank 31st in points allowed. Grossman's QB rating (93.6) was lower than McNabb's a week before (100.7).


Up until the last game killing interception, and that is exactly what it was, Rex's rating was actually better.

People around the league and multiple fan bases will say that there is good Rex and bad Rex. In the game against Dallas we saw both.

Good Rex: 4 TD’s , over 300 yds passing, and 30 points put up on the board.

Bad Rex: 1 lost fumble, 2 interceptions, and 5 sacks.

Though it might be argued that sacks are not always the QB’s fault.
But the fact still remains. That last interception was a killer.

Boswell also states:

Successful NFL coaches do what they've done before. Shanahan breaths discipline, demands control, weeds out everyone who isn't totally with his plan (sometimes cruelly) and, when necessary, will take the lesser athlete for the sake of a superior attitude.


Others might also argue that other successful NFL coaches have adopted a system to play to their players strengths. I actually think Boswell is more right than wrong.

If you look at successful NFL organizations, you will find stability; and within that stability you will find a "system" , a "style" or a "plan". The organization then finds players to fit that mold.

Shanahan didn't wait to see the tape to glow: Grossman "executed the offense. We have a system. You've got to go through your reads. It's very complicated to tell you what he did. He just executed. There's a lot of different coverage, lots of different blitzes. We have routes called for different coverages. He performed like a veteran performs."


For now it appears that Rex fits the mold more than Donovan. The question still remains.

Can an old dog learn new tricks?

Can Donovan learn to fit the new mold? Or is he better suited in a different system?

Like I said back in April...

Only time will tell.

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Wednesday, December 22, 2010

A Bad Fan

A funny thing happened last weekend. My son and I got into a bit of a fan rivalry even though we are both Redskin Fans.

You see, we were watching the Redskin Dallas game on TV and I was noticeably more excited every time the Dallas defense or kick return team had a good play. I would smile and say something like “yes! Another point for me” and he would moan is disbelief and complain about how poorly the skins were doing.

Dad ! what are you talking about? Are you routing for the Cowboys? How could you?

No son, I am routing for my fantasy football team.

You see, when I heard that Rex the hex was promoted to starting QB and knew that the Dallas Defense was doing well in the sack and turnover department (and oh by the way the skins offensive line is , well offensively BAD!) I picked up the Dallas Defense off of the waiver wire and put them in the starting lineup.

Since we count interceptions, fumbles, sacks, and return yards, I thought it a fairly safe bet. Well, 143 return yards, 2 interceptions, a fumble and 5 sacks later . . . my fantasy team had an impressive 18 points on defense even though the skins scored an impressive 30 points (which did count against the Dallas fantasy point total).

I must admit, that for at least one game, Rex did run the offense better than Donovan. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

But on with my post . . .

With my borderless league playoffs in full swing and my “Fun Bunch” team the last remaining East Coast representative left, the pressure was on for a win and a chance at the title next week.

Was this tactic enough to win?

Well, it helped.

The Dallas D scored 9 more points than Greenbay which I sat on the bench.
My decision to start Kenny Britt (15 points) over Anquan Boldin (0 points) also helped.
And least I forget DeSean’s last second TD return!

That helped too!

Final score:
Fun Bunch 130
Unemployables 118

In my League of Experts my team was also in the playoffs but lost Aaron Rodgers in the first round which gave both of us a major headache. Oh, well. . .

So now it is off to the championship game between my East Coast Fun Bunch and the West Coast Edumucation Team.

May the best my team win.

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